Markets are evidence-resistant right up until the point they suddenly move all at once, and destroying the Federal Reserve is a cataclysmic event.
Replies
Slower than you can believe, and then faster than you can believe
aug 26, 2025, 1:11 am • 14 0 • view
You guys are severely underpricing elites just riding it out because they like this guy being the boss and they want to go back to harassing their secretary more than anything
aug 26, 2025, 12:49 am • 8 0 • view
There aren't any fundamentals rn. The market is just dca & vibes. Crypto, ai, deep fakes, bots. This thing can run on inertia for a long time before the panic sets in.
aug 26, 2025, 1:18 am • 1 0 • view
You can’t ride out the intentional devaluation of the dollar, which is something some of Trump’s economic advisers specifically want to do.
aug 26, 2025, 12:51 am • 29 1 • view
Again, cmon, we haven't found the upper bound on the price elites are willing to pay to kill woke. You guys are way too confident you can price it right when nobody has been able to
aug 26, 2025, 12:54 am • 1 0 • view
Elites value being able to retire, having savings that aren't worthless, and not being associated with a guy who will be pushing for a 20% or below approval rating if he detonates the bond markets.
aug 26, 2025, 12:55 am • 12 1 • view
Again, based on this model many things that are already happening wouldn't be happening. We can't seriously keep telling ourselves "well, now _this time_ he fucked around too much with the money"
aug 26, 2025, 12:59 am • 2 0 • view
I mean when the dollar initially plunged after Liberation Day, Trump notably did pause or back down from some of the worst tariffs. TACO became a thing for a reason.
aug 26, 2025, 1:00 am • 15 1 • view
And then what happened after that? What tariffs do we have now?
aug 26, 2025, 1:03 am • 0 0 • view
We backed down from almost all tariffs with Canada and Mexico, our two biggest trading partners!
aug 26, 2025, 1:05 am • 8 1 • view
Like, nobody is saying this is ideal! It’s freaking terrifying! We’re saying even this utter dumbass is accountable to external reality, and knows it.
aug 26, 2025, 1:07 am • 8 1 • view
Actually, I'm not sure he *knows* it. That seems to be what's driving this spectacular mess forward.
aug 26, 2025, 1:07 am • 11 0 • view
You may have noted he is in the process of chickening out of the Invasion of Chicago as we speak. Sometimes he KNOWS when he’s in over his head. We’ll see what happens here!
aug 26, 2025, 1:08 am • 7 1 • view
Do you not remember liberation day?
aug 26, 2025, 12:59 am • 0 0 • view
And then what happened after that? We're now with tariffs that would have been unthinkable before Jan 21st!
aug 26, 2025, 1:02 am • 0 0 • view
aug 26, 2025, 1:05 am • 0 0 • view
That large bite shows that things actually matter. I don’t know how else to explain it to you. But for liberation day, the s&p would be much higher than it is. As you can see.
aug 26, 2025, 1:06 am • 1 0 • view
This actually shows how this could play out: The same way we’re frog-boiled with higher and higher tariffs, this guy is gonna keep slowly pushing the envelope with fucking around with the fed, and people are going to keep talking themselves into going along. But anyway, we’re an impasse here.
aug 26, 2025, 1:17 am • 0 0 • view
I don't think we're disagreeing too much. My point is that the frog can't stop itself from dying just being it's ignoring the boiling water. It just might take time. But it's not indefinite.
aug 26, 2025, 1:36 am • 4 0 • view
But it takes time for that to happens and until the moment where they physically feel the pain of their decision they’ll ride the Trump wave even if that wave doesn’t bring them to shore.
aug 26, 2025, 12:53 am • 6 0 • view
They see any meaningless victory as proof of Trump genius and self evident plan and any set back as proof he must be set completely free of any reins.
aug 26, 2025, 12:55 am • 1 0 • view