This analysis is robust. In fact, the only way the missile’s range would remain below the 500-kilometer threshold is if it carried a very small fuel tank relative to its overall size and/or if its efficient turbofan engine were replaced with a much less efficient turbojet. 5/7
Russia has not credibly demonstrated that either of these conditions applies. Therefore, the only prudent conclusion is that the missile’s range greatly exceeds the INF limits. 6/7
The U.S. decision to withdraw from the INF Treaty in 2019, after years of Russian noncompliance, was therefore entirely correct. Likewise, refusing to engage with Russia on its moratorium proposal has been the only reasonable course of action. 7/7