Hi all, I published my latest Substack post earlier today, offering an initial assessment of the FP-5 Flamingo’s specifications, lethality, survivability, and strategic implications. Access the full post via the link below: missilematters.substack.com/p/the-flamin... Short summary below. 1/6
Isn’t this probably the long-range indigenous weapon that Germany announced they are supporting UKR with?
My question is what objects will be Ukraine willing to target? Will they go after dual purpose companies? These are not drones creating delays, these missiles can kill dozens of civilian workers. I'm not arguing against it, at this point it's necessary. But we all know how "allies" view this.
I hope Ukraine will go after a few dual-use targets. Stopping a few very productive oil refineries, pumping stations etc will do the trick. Without selling gas and oil Putin-Russia is done. Almost immediately. Without the prospect of selling their natural riches, no one will lend them money.
Refineries and pumping stations are not the best target for big missiles. Drones suffice here, as there is not much structural protection and the facilities themselves are kinda blowable, all you need is lighter at the right spot.
Related 🧵 ->
If this missle holds its promise, Ukraine is going at Russias throat this year. Oil and gas shortages here they come.
I am surprised Russia doesn’t spend more time trying to destroy Ukraine’s munitions making factories rather than random strikes against civilians. I guess manufacturing is as dispersed and hidden as is possible.
These facilities are mostly underground and there is a lot of ew around. Also, russia pretty much daily claims to have hit some military sites or production facilities, while Ukraine always ignores or denies it. Both sides run their propaganda machines.
If they could they would.
:P
The FP-5 Flamingo is the first "heavy" missile system in Ukraine's indigenous missile arsenal, combining long range with a large payload. This offers significant advantages in terms of missile lethality through improved warhead penetration and greater explosive yield. 2/6
The ultimate impact of the Flamingo on the battlefield will depend on Ukrainian production levels and its survivability against Russian missile defenses. Ukrainian output goals of more than 200 units per month by the end of the year are certainly ambitious. 3/6
However, even a steady supply of 30 to 50 missiles per month would likely have a tangible effect on the war. This is especially true given that Russian air defenses have run thin, and the area requiring protection against Ukrainian missiles will only continue to expand. 4/6
In my view, the question is not whether the FP-5 will get through, but how many. Beyond the immediate implications for the ongoing war, the Flamingo could mark the beginning of a credible Ukrainian conventional countervalue capability to deter future Russian aggression. 5/6
A mass-produced deep strike weapon like the Flamingo is arguably one of Ukraine’s strongest security guarantee in a post-war European order, regardless of the war’s outcome and independent of European or American allies. 6/6
Another thing: Ukraine depends on US targeting help. What’s to stop pro-Putin Trump from threatening to stop intelligence-sharing with Ukraine if Ukraine uses the Flamingo deep into Russia? That’s what the US has done with ATACMs. And Europe cannot provide this kind of targeting help to Ukraine.
Europe has spy satellites. Ukraine has spies in Russia world. They can hit targets in Russia without US help if need be.
Some targets for sure, but not realtime moving ones.
Good thing oil refineries don't move.
Ha ha
If Ukraine can produce 200 a month, why can’t France, Germany, and the UK combined produce another thousand per month?
They easily could, especially if they'd started building factories when the Ukrainians did. Western support was never a question of capability, but one of political will.
As important as Flamingo is, what surprises me is that Long Neptune the long Neptune was big news in terms of expanding long-range capabilities. The system could also play an important role. Maybe I just overlooked it, but I haven't heard anything about it in a while. Do you know anything about it?
Thank you so much! Regarding 'GPS only', if you are nimble, there are now GNSS receivers that work over many more bands and many more constellations. Defense industry has been slow in adapting, but from contacts in Ukraine I know they are very aware of Galileo, BeiDou and even GLONASS & new bands.
Such new bands can increase precision tremendously, and may also thwart some jammers that focus on the most well known bands. All in all factors that can make a huge difference.
I absolutelty trust that the producers have thought about this. Maybe they implement this in a newer revision once the fascists found out how to jam the signal
A bit off topic but Ive read the name Flamingo was an inside joke that stuck. It referred to the first prototypes being painted pink as a nod to the often overlooked female workers who took part in building the first prototypes.