Hi all, I just published my latest Substack post. With recent focus on Ukrainian missiles, from Flamingo to "Long Neptune" and others, I thought I'd provide context by tracing the evolution of Ukraine's missile programs. Short summary below. missilematters.substack.com/p/ukraines-... 1/6
Ukraine’s missile industry has moved through several distinct phases since 2014, from modest post-Soviet capabilities and problem-ridden pre-war programs to wartime improvisation, foreign reliance, and now ambitious attempts at independent production. 2/6
From relying almost entirely on Western partners in 2023 for long-range strike capabilities, Ukraine by 2025 fields a diverse but still imperfect missile arsenal, with lighter drones and mini-cruise missiles forming the backbone. 3/6
New efforts are now underway to complement this arsenal with a “heavy-hitter”: a missile system combining long range with high payload capacity and velocity. It is in this context that last week’s news about the Flamingo must be understood. 4/6
Given the recent news about Fire Point, the producer of the Flamingo, it is best to remain cautious about the missile’s prospects. Ukraine, however, retains other options, including the Hrim-2 SRBM/MRBM, the Korshun LACM, and the “Long Neptune” LACM, among others. 5/6
If and when Ukraine succeeds in acquiring a mass-producible heavy missile system, the intensity and destructiveness of its missile war can be expected to increase. That said, cost will become an increasingly constraining factor, making foreign financing more important. 6/6
Es ist entschieden politisch einfacher und wirtschaftlich effektiver die Rüstungsindustrie in der UKR finanziell zu unterstützen … als einige der wenigen eigenen Waffensysteme aus D nach UKR zu exportieren. Geld überweisen, ggf noch Einkaufquellen am Weltmarkt vermitteln… Wo ist das Problem?
Frustrating we need to make flamingo happen.
Is Hrim-2 operational?
Thanks for this summary. It appears now that the Flamingo was used operationally for the first time yesterday, according to social media reports. Hope that you and/or @phillipspobrien.bsky.social can comment on the BDA relative to expectations as well as on the target choice, near Armyansk, Crimea.
I'm waiting for higher res pictures before drawing conclusions.
I figured. The online photos of the aftermath were not sufficiently high res for that purpose. Thanks for responding so quickly!
FYI 👇
NABU has notably not denied that there exists an investigation into the company that produces the FP-5 Flamingo.
Muss mir wieder klar machen, dass es nicht der Naturschutzbund ist.
Die übliche #Disinformation ,die von mushkovistan im Infospace platziert wird. 🫠