Don't think I have much to add to Garret's preview. Jets are a good team with an elite goaltender and a great power play - their "weakness" being they mostly handle "just fine" at 5v5. The question is: in a 4-7 game series, can they sustain that or will one of those falter at an inopportune time?
Jack Han also posted a preview highlighting STL's strengths, and part of it worries me of where WPG's structure could break - breakouts with speed. I'm not worried about Jets defending 5v5 in their zone (maybe a little bit worried about the PK)... jhanhky.substack.com/p/playoff-pl...
...but if Binnington can help his defencemen activate from their own DZ and all 5 Blues can charge down the ice with speed through the NZ, that's where we've seen WPG make the most mistakes and 37 struggle on those rush chances (this season). Simply put: it can't happen with 64-5 on the ice, ever.
All else considered, with Ehlers and Vilardi injured, Jets offence at 5v5 and on the PP is a concern this series. But they've built themselves to win games 2-1 or 3-2 on the back of 37 and strong defending. Similarly, Montgomery's Blues is all about quality over quantity.
My guess is that this series will be influenced by whoever takes the early lead and how they defend against the immediate aftermath. WPG will want to forecheck aggressively, but not too much to lead to odd-man chances against. STL is comfortable holding on to the puck in all zones with a lead.
We all knew it was going to be a gauntlet just getting to the Western Conference Finals - WPG battling its inner demons from past seasons just adds on to the pressure. But unlike the disastrous end to the 2019-20 season, they've formed habits to meet this moment. Should be a fun series.
St Louis was the nightmare first round matchup for me. Binnington is capable of heroics as most recently proven in 4Nations. St Louis was unstoppable down the stretch. Nothing to lose for them. All of the pressure is on Winnipeg.
I see two requirements for a Jets win in this series. Their special teams need to be a net positive and Helle needs to be the better goalie. Clear win in as few as 5 games if both happen.
Jets are a very good defensive team with a great goalie. I think their defensive quality is underestimated, partly based on some analyses that suggest that the Jets D is perhaps better than their shots metrics (Valiquette indicates they are tops in limiting time and space on high-danger chances).
Conversely, I have concerns about the Jets' offense at both 5v5 and on the PP, especially without Ehlers and Vilardi. I expect a low-scoring series and hope the Jets are able to score first more often than not.
So, I see it very much the same as you do. I think Nino and Perfetti might play a key role, as the Jets seem likely to need some secondary offense.