They're going to lose by more than that, and 5 points wouldn't be enough for them to keep the House. Details here: www.dailykos.com/stories/2025...
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GE Morris estimated Dems breakeven on House odds if they win by 3% or so even with a maximal Republican gerrymander.
aug 26, 2025, 1:39 am • 42 3 • view
The gerrymanders are bad and undemocratic, but they will impact House control a lot more in 2028.
aug 26, 2025, 1:40 am • 9 0 • view
Not really. New York, Virginia and Illinois have basically signaled they can’t change their maps for 2026, but they can and will for 2028.
aug 26, 2025, 2:06 am • 11 0 • view
Illinois can definitely change them now. I suspect they're keeping their powder dry for now, though, as CA can offset Texas and then some. It's not hard or even especially funky-looking to draw a 52D-0R map of CA where every seat is Harris+10 or more.
aug 26, 2025, 2:20 am • 9 0 • view
Does require a state constitutional amendment though
aug 27, 2025, 1:52 pm • 0 0 • view
I guessed on who the third state is that can’t in 26 but can in 28 to be honest. I know there is one but I can’t remember who.
aug 26, 2025, 2:30 am • 1 0 • view
That's about where I came down as well. Incumbency advantage and a few other things move that around, but 2-4% is approximately right.
aug 26, 2025, 1:42 am • 38 1 • view
He’s not an incumbent. He’s a lame duck. Everyone needs to remember that. And, he’s a sick lame duck.
aug 27, 2025, 2:06 am • 0 0 • view
I was talking about the house reps running for reelection.
aug 27, 2025, 8:52 am • 1 0 • view
So you're saying that we have a year to beat those odds? Let's get to work
aug 26, 2025, 1:51 am • 32 0 • view
I think we almost certainly will. That's my point. Historical precedent, virtually every special election, Trump's approval. They all point to a Dem blowout -- at least in the house.
aug 26, 2025, 1:55 am • 54 2 • view
I'd guess D+6 to D+10, based on what we're seeing thus far. If the bottom actually falls out of the economy all bets are off, though.
aug 26, 2025, 2:03 am • 32 0 • view
I've thought about that, and this move on the Fed makes that more likely. I want to see an insane level Dem win. I will walk and knock on doors until my feet bleed if I have to. We must bring back due process and control over the purse to Congress. I'd say we need to castrate him, but...
aug 26, 2025, 3:54 am • 31 2 • view
We really need to take a good number of Senate pick up to lock them down a chance at the Trifecta in 2028. Much of this is a waste if an incoming Dem President can't pack SCOTUS to 13 judges as the *first* item of business in 2029.
aug 26, 2025, 5:11 am • 34 4 • view
Why can't a Dem POTUS ignore the courts? After all, Cheetolini does it.
aug 26, 2025, 9:16 pm • 0 0 • view
How does ignoring the court put 4 new Dems on SCOTUS?
aug 26, 2025, 9:28 pm • 0 0 • view
Because the point is to bring back democracy, not to nuke it from orbit. We're a nation of laws. We're founded on justice. Dictators don't value those things. But corruption is a cancer. We have to kill it everywhere, or there's no point in fighting.
aug 26, 2025, 9:26 pm • 2 0 • view
Three things feel like the top priority, judicial reform, including expanding SCOTUS, limiting their terms, and ethics rules with teeth, then two amendments. One should repeal the electoral college. The other should eliminate money from politics, killing off Citizens United.
aug 26, 2025, 12:13 pm • 30 4 • view
DC Statehood.
aug 26, 2025, 8:53 pm • 3 0 • view
Term limits is tricky & ethics reform takes time to write. Expanding SCOTUS to 13 and fast tracking 4 nominations is the urgent focus not to waste any time on. Write a short bill, pass it in the first two weeks, fill the seats ASAP. Amendments need to pass the states. Not happening.
aug 26, 2025, 3:52 pm • 2 0 • view
I agree. The expansion should be swift
aug 26, 2025, 4:08 pm • 2 0 • view
You will need an amendment to impose term limits on the Supreme Court.
aug 26, 2025, 2:57 pm • 4 0 • view
Better get some decent candidates in the next six months then. The current roster is filled with do-nothing “moderates” and feckless centrists. Primary all of them.
aug 26, 2025, 7:05 am • 0 0 • view
Not if he manages 2end mail in voting,tries 2 prevent ppl fm voting using Natl Guard, intimidation, removing poling sites/ drop offs,purges voter roles,pull an Abbott &create new districts or just say election rigged.Who’s left to 🛑 him?The Supreme Court?We’ve already crossed in 2 fascism/autocracy
aug 26, 2025, 3:17 am • 0 0 • view
1. I don't think that kind of defeatism is helpful. 2. If elections didn't matter, then why bother with the Texas gerrymander at all? 3. Orban is much more consolidated in Hungary than Trump is here, and even he needs to win elections.
aug 26, 2025, 3:26 am • 1 0 • view
I buy that America is sliding into autocracy, but there is a lot of space between that and Trump being president for life.
aug 26, 2025, 3:26 am • 0 0 • view
True but listen to what he says. Before being elected he flat out begged ppl to vote for him that all they had to do is vote this once and won’t have to vote again if he’s elected.he means it,we can’t keep saying he’s just talking bs.if he can find away it will be him or his hand picked successor
aug 26, 2025, 3:40 am • 0 0 • view
I am not a defeatist but I also think Dems have to be more united,get their messaging out to all in effective way, stop believing u can wk w/repubs u can’t, they won’t stand up to the felon & Dems can’t keep playing by the rules they must get tough,go to every state rural areas, red districts& fight
aug 26, 2025, 3:40 am • 0 0 • view
As if democracy itself is on the line because it is.if TX manages 2 get 5 more seats,CA &all Dem states should do same,NY has process but that should be susp.In a free/fair election I believe Dems would regain House& Senate but trump &repubs r trying 2 so all 2 prevent it &SC will do fuckall 2 🛑 it
aug 26, 2025, 3:40 am • 0 0 • view
or... disapproval
aug 26, 2025, 3:31 am • 0 0 • view
My initial assumption would be a dem +8 environment for the midterms. And that was assuming a less maximally evil Trump presidency. If he keeps going like this... +8 might be undercutting it
aug 26, 2025, 3:42 am • 1 0 • view
How about the Senate?
aug 26, 2025, 3:46 am • 0 0 • view
That’s the thing about gerrymandering. When the margins are thin, the favored party wins big. When the margins are even, or even slightly against the favored party, they still win big. But when the margins get bigger, suddenly all the “cracked” districts flip, and the “favored” party *loses* big.
aug 26, 2025, 2:24 am • 6 0 • view