Google is your friend NY: Hochul indicated they’ll redistrict IL: 14D-3R in 54D-43R state NJ: 9D-3R, 1 R is Trump +2, could prob win that without redrawing, prob can’t get more than 10-2 MA: 9-0 MD: 7D-1R CT: 5-0 NM: 3-0 HI/RI/ME all 2-0 I think WA/OR/CO are commissions, unclear if can be changed
As I thought, you’re correct about my home state: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Washing...
@golikehellmachine.com do you know about OR? I don’t
The R seat was Trump +27 & covers most of the state. One of the Dem seats was only Harris +8, two others were +12. So even if procedurally Dems could redistrict it would probably be difficult to make it 6-0.
Makes sense, OR is a lot like WA: big empty spaces on the east side of the mountains dominated by GOP, almost all the people live on west side and are mostly Dems
I’m not a map guy but the political geography in NJ should allow for 11-1, IL can net a few more. MD can net one. Etc. None will singlehandedly cancel out Rs, but one here and another there could do it.
If you’re not a map guy why are you so confident of these numbers? In IL the GOP seats were Trump +22, +40, & +44 Dems have 4 seats that Harris won by 5-7 points, & 2 more she won by 11. So, again, why are you so confident in your ability to get more seats in IL without creating a dummymander?
Wi-03 is a seat that we can win with support from the party
NJ requires a constitutional amendment, which cannot be proposed in time for the 2025 election. Agree that it wouldn't matter. MD and OR are redistricted by the legislature. OR is 5-1 and can't safely be made 6-0. MD could safely draw 8-0.
WA has a commission and requires 2/3 of the legislature for amendment, which Ds do not have. Even if they could redraw, it would yield 1 seat.
CO requires 2/3 of the legislature for an amendment, which Ds do not have. Initiated amendments are allowed, but I do not know the timing. Likely too late for 2025. 55% threshold. 2-3 D seats on the table here.
One of the CO seats is newly apportioned, & held by a Dem 2023-2024 & among only 5-6 Dem incumbents defeated in 2024 (wasn’t there some issue w the incumbent?). Plausible we’ll win it even without a new map.
6-2 is plausible, but it could be a safe 7-1 without the commission.
imo, you're underestimating how hard it is to get MD-01 to be even light blue without endangering one or two others. And it would likely get instantly tied up in the state courts again as the 2021 map was
Maybe making it light red <5% Trump might be a workaround with courts, it's still red but good pickup opportunity.
I'm just talking about the numbers, not the court challenged. MD has the numbers with an ugly map.
Wisconsin map is in the lower court rn. Maine could shore up Golden's district if Nebraska does that with NE02, especially since an EV is on the line here.