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Zack Labe @zacklabe.com

✅ We have a new study out this week, which projects changes in cloud-to-ground (CG) lightning days across the Western United States, along with the associated risk of lightning-ignited wildfires (LIW). + #OpenAccess Paper (@agu.org): doi.org/10.1029/2025... + Summary: news.wsu.edu/press-releas...

Screenshot of Figure 2c in Kalashnikov et al. (2025, Earth's Future), which shows CESM2 ensemble distribution of projected changes in CG lightning and LIW-risk days averaged across ecoprovinces. Horizontal lines within boxplots indicate medians and whiskers represent spread of the 50 ensemble members. Text along the bottom shows ensemble-mean changes, with * indicating that a majority of grid cells have >75% ensemble agreement on the sign of change in that ecoprovince.
aug 29, 2025, 12:26 pm • 68 23

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Perez-Invernon ⚡️ @javiepe89.bsky.social

Very interesting!!

aug 29, 2025, 1:29 pm • 1 0 • view
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Zack Labe @zacklabe.com

Takeaway - In this model, lightning increases across the West in the near-future, with the largest change in risk for ignited wildfires across the Rockies.

aug 29, 2025, 12:42 pm • 27 9 • view
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Eric Holthaus @ericholthaus.com

That's interesting that the increase is driven by all three atmospheric variables. Was there one that stood out as the leading driver, or was it more regionally-dependent?

aug 29, 2025, 12:57 pm • 2 0 • view
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Eric Holthaus @ericholthaus.com

I found an answer in your paper, lol. Great work. This is a really interesting study.

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aug 29, 2025, 1:03 pm • 6 1 • view
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Zack Labe @zacklabe.com

Thank you!!

aug 29, 2025, 2:35 pm • 0 0 • view