Wait. Did you make this video tonight? Or right after the draft? I get that *typically* a RB in the second round isn't maybe what you want to see, but now that we've watched him in action, you don't consider TreyVeon Henderson a weapon and a good draft pick? Seriously?

Yes, and it isn't that Henderson won't be a potentially good player. I know that the hype train has justifiably taken off for him. Here are my concerns: 1) RB is not a full-time position, 2) RB is dependent, in part, on offensive line, 3) he had durability issues, and 4) might struggle w/ zone

And, again, you passed on potentially the same caliber of prospect at premium positions. They didn't see it that way, of course. They were higher than consensus on him via their grade on him. Not surprising. Prospect variances increases a lot once you get out of the top 15-20-25 or so.

Willy C is going to get you representative LT play. He will struggle with rookie ups and downs, but he has elite athletic traits and there's nothing beyond an arbitrary arm threshold that makes him a guard and his entire body of work that suggests he is a tackle. Maybe not top 5, but he'll be fine

I have a thread on why I think he is a guard. I should pin it. I’ll find it and post below. I’ve thought for two years that he was a guard or a center. I’m not alone with that either. The buzz on him going into the year was: check out this great IOL prospect. It’s not just the arm length either.

bsky.app/profile/thep...

He's also got a lot of great tape against guys like Jared Verse and has hung just fine so far. Whether or not he's a guard down the road is incidental. What's the consequence of your Campbell take sans alternative? Hollow criticisms. Each starter they add allows freedom to draft best available.

I thought Verse kicked his ass... I would argue the opposite. And Campbell admitted it on a pod with Brandon Thorn. He said that because Verse kicked his ass so badly with his speed to power he saw that the rest of the year until he proved the next year he got a stronger anchor.

Saw that meaning he got bull-rushed and long-armed a lot after Verse handled him. IIRC he says it in here... but there is so much content I might have picked the wrong video :(. trenchwarfare.substack.com/p/the-trench...

You're right about the Brandon thorn thing, I watched that, point is he hung with and learned from his freshman experience with Verse, who went on to run roughshod though NFL starters. Plus the rep where he gets "rocked" is a solid anchor against an NFL all pro.

If you had Will Campbell two years from now on your roster last year, you wouldn't have been forced into a situation where you had to draft Will at four this year. It's my point about Henderson too. Criticisms of draft value are senseless if they've stacked starters especially without alternatives.

Henderson I'd give you if ya had an alternative scenario. Again another arbitrary threshold about RBs in the top 50 picks, but by all accounts and consensus draft grades, Henderson fell to the pats. He's an explosive Swiss army knife with 20+mph game speed. Easily the best weapon drafted since 2010

I think you are spot on about how far this team has to go and how razor thin the margins are with their paper depth, but I think that it has a lot more to do with the absolute derelict state the roster and the past ten years or drafts more than this years.

If they hit on 4 starters on offense that's a home run draft. It also would speak to how bad things were that 4 rooks show up and are instantly 4 of the best guys on the offense. Most of the guys we started last year wouldn't make teams practice squads let alone their 53.

For sure. If we get more than 2 quality starters it is an exceptional draft regardless of where you picked in the order. I have a methodology I didn’t get into and used top 50 as a shitty proxy. I buy into The Drafting Stage’s tiers and link that to my scale. More below.

For me, it would be difficult philosophically to draft a running back when I didn’t have a quality offensive line already in place. Also, if a 7+ on my scale (which translates to top 25 at a position you have one or more of) player is available at OT, WR, Edge, IDL, CB, and OG to a lesser degree…

I would have gone after a different position with who was available on the board. Last note: Henderson was 40th on Arif’s consensus big board. He wasn’t a steal. He was fine in terms of where they picked him.

If I have a loaded roster, or if I’m more or less set at the premium or semi-premium positions like OG then I would entertain taking an RB high.

I agree in theory. I wish they had added another interior lineman through FA or draft but Wilson looks like the starter at guard so you see how this starts to get silly? They drafted a starting guard and a field tilting RB but just out of order somehow? We have to see how things pan out obviously

I don't know if he looks like a starter at OG yet or not. Way too early for that. I still think his long-term value is at center. It looks like he is going to start and grow at OG this year. He might play well! He might not in year 1. Let's check in ~week 8-9? I was a Wilson peep btw.

But the guys that were available to them all seem to have made the team better so far. I reject the notion that this year's pick values are a relevant variable to the fact that the pats will have to draft home runs at premium positions for years to get caught back up.

So agree with the concerns in the macro, but feel the cause is being misappropriated. There is no reason right now to be concerned about the value of the Henderson or Campbell picks especially when all four guys look like hits coming out of camp.

I’m not sure I’d say all 4 look like hits. Kyle Williams? 3 look like they might pan out well. Woodson might be more of a lock to contribute than Wilson… so maybe 4 but Williams is the only guy you have more ?s about getting playing time before mid-season.

Don’t get me wrong - that’s still really freaking awesome.