‼️ Russia: “The Russian federal budget for 2025 may be executed with a deficit slightly higher than the currently planned level of 1.7% of GDP, a source familiar with the preparation of budget projections told journalists.” 🤣 “slightly” www.interfax.ru/business/104...
Me, hearing about bad economic news from Russia
As always depends on your scale. 😁
The deficit was already at 2.2% last month.
Now they’re revising GDP down to 1.2% just 5 days after saying it was 1.5%
😍
And the IMF lowered it to 0.9% over a month ago.
The ruble is still much stronger than the budget indicated further lowering expected budget income from oil sales.
And numbers like 👉 8 trillion ruble deficit Are getting published in Russian Media as realistic expectations.
“"As for the deficit, we have already revised it (in the spring of this year - IF), it has become a little bigger - 1.7% of GDP. Perhaps it will be a little bigger. I mean that cooling is still underway, the economy is slowing down faster than expected.”” Let’s look at the original budget deficit
Far right column below is the original budget number 👉 1.173 Trillion rubles And people are talking about 8 trillion now.
“The source noted that due to lower expectations for GDP growth, the base for budget revenues will also shrink, which, in turn, may require the mobilization of resources.” FROM WHERE? They’re already “eating their seed corn”
“"The economy is slowing down. If earlier we expected a growth rate of 1.5%, now it is already 1.2% GDP growth. Accordingly, the resource base is also shrinking, so we will mobilize resources this year and, accordingly, we will prepare the budget for next year based on this," he explained.”
THEY HAVEN’T EVEN FIGURED OUT WHAT TO DO ABOUT THIS YEAR! How can you plan next year if you can’t even predict this year?
What? Is every russian now going to sell their blood every month?
I'd say that it's quite unimportant what percentage of GDP the deficit is. But as I see the curent trends, the much more important thing is, that they'll be lacking roughly some 20% of complete budget income and the deficit will reach 25% of expenditures, I still can't see how they plan to cover it.
It looks my prediction, probably less than 24 trillion, but I hope I'm wrong, is still possible.
If that's what they're putting out now, it'll probably get to 10 trillion, especially with Ukraine popping alone or two refineries per day and gas export restrictions through end of October at least.
Is 2,2% that bad? Look at deficit in USA.
Yes, it’s very bad. You can’t compare Russia to other countries, it’s a completely different situation.
Because they cant lend on the normal markets?
That’s part of it, but also it’s not a market economy. It tries to masquerade as one, but it’s not. I’m not even joking here when I say that many of the moves Russia is making are similar to what Zimbabwe has done.
When I look at some of the numbers suggested for 2025 deficit. Like 8 trillion or 10 trillion, I legitimately have no clue how they’re going to pay that. It’s more than the liquid assets of their National Welfare Fund. No one outside of Russia is lending to them.
The Russians will eat their own. Figuratively. At first.
There is a risk of a banking crisis. They’ve already defaulted on a payment that was due on 25 of July. Many of the things that are happening or are at risk of happening are things that Russia has done before. But people will still somehow be surprised when it happens again.
It's just like car drivers here being surprised every year that winter is a thing that regularily occurs.
I do hope you are right, and soon! I can’t wait for the 90:s to repeat for russia.
They will manage this year somehow but the longer this goes on the harder it will be and the collapse will be more spectacular.
This level of euphemism sounds very much like a british joke to me. I love british jokes.
KEEP up it is already at 2.2% ...By July, the deficit had already hit 2.2% of GDP, according to the finance ministry’s preliminary data. see @noelreports.com
Read the next post in that thread 🤗
No shit Sherlock!!!
That’s exactly what my initial response was. I came very close to literally writing that exact phrase.
You should....very liberating
It's all coming together nicely. Next, we will see the four horsemen of the apocalypse riding through Moscow.