Right now Newsom is the Inevitable Nominee is not a thing that's going to happen. He's a CA governor whom the reactionaries think is a frothing leftist and whom the leftists want to guillotine as a soulless weathervane slash corporatist stooge. He has basically no plausible trajectory to success.
We are doing more damage to ourselves meming about the Newsom Nomination than we are the enemy. And again, I get it. The redistricting thing feels like it has a chance of real success bc he told us "if you do this we can de facto end Trump's Presidency!" (& some of us dare to hope ACTUALLY end it)
(this is of course why he made such a promise, bc Gavin Newsom is a weathervane politician who's real good at stirring people's hopes & fears, & the hope of ending the nightmare we've been in for 8 months now early is so unbearably seductive people would do a LOT for it, but it's a long shot folks!)
I'll refer to him, as I've referred to John Fetterman and Kyrsten Sinema as "Elizabeth Holmes" candidates. People who know how to tap in and exploit the image and emotional desires of their audiences, while also papering over their blatant shortcoming to most people who don't check under the hood.
Of course, the difference here is that their woeful shortcomings are brought up in public, yet people still look past because . . . "they're what's needed at the moment!" (As in, they fit the role of "'Fuck You GOP!' fighter" that Dem voters are increasingly aggravated on not seeing enough of).
Not to be cynical or misanthropic, but as someone whose senator is Fetterman and not Lamb or Kenyatta, it's this same emotion overriding logic that's on display with voters and potential voters. Newsom is a bad potential candidate, but a lot of folks on here are so emotionally desperate for an-
-anti-Schumer/Booker/etc. that they're lining behind the guy in the spotlight at the moment who isn't that. Regardless of policies. Because they see the GOP as nothing but attack dogs, and are desperate for even the image of having some as well (even if risking having said dogs attack them first).
Meanwhile Pritzker has been sticking his neck out in local ways & doing meaningful protective policies to relatively little acclaim, and again, I get it. Not only does that not feel as decisive or promise as total a victory, CA voters like me also have a real ax to grind about getting shit on.
Also he needs to be read as a “I didn’t inhale” type where he makes meaningless gestures that have no policy behind them. Obama did something similar with gay marriage to try to straddle the fence. I’m so tired of the fucking temper tantrums around here when people are being hurt *right now*
Ehhh, his statements on podcasts have done real harm and should be seen as part of the cohesive media & Beltway assault on trans rights. I will never expect people to smile for someone who tells them the state violating their bodies is just good sense.
Oh it’s gross, don’t get me wrong but I was also living here in 2004 when he approved the city covering transitions for municipal employees so it’s hard to square as a clear and present danger.
I mean it's not really that hard? That was then, this is now, and the media outlets are absolutely frothingly obsessed with normalizing & propagating transphobia. Newsom being a weathervane means he'll go with whatever he thinks will get him attention & votes.
I guess there’s that possibility but it seems very unlikely. But there are more than enough leaders of trans rights movement who have shown agendas that were nothing short of destructive in the last election and they’re clearly pulling the strings right now and I’m not comfortable
giving them fuel to their social blackmail fire ever again. Newsom isn’t my first choice but until he actually runs on anti trans legislation I’m not kneecapping him as a Nazi like this app is.
I understand and agree that CA's actual government under Newsom has been better on trans rights but his statements about it should be disqualifying until he actually repudiates them & does real work to atone, imo, not just going "watch what he does, not what he says." What he says matters.
But - while Newsom's actual admin is better on trans rights than Newsom the Dipshit Wannabe Podcast Bro - we should not just fall over ourselves early to coronate an unlikely candidate because he was savvy enough to promise us our most desperate forlorn hope. And trends suggest he won't be the nom.
His ONLY path to success would be in... convincing a bunch of people desperate for a savior from Trump & feeling deep parasocial investment bc of a decently charismatic speech to move heaven & earth treating his nomination like a fait accompli 3 years too early. And it still likely won't work.
Instead what it's mostly doing so far is redirecting people's combative energies into fighting OTHER DEM VOTERS, bc to them Republicans are the weather, & to refight old grudges that have fermented until they're wine at this point. That sort of thing is, if anything, disqualifying to me!
So in conclusion: Newsom's redistricting plan? Quite likely to work, probably a concerted plan by Democratics, very heartening. Newsom the presidential candidate? Imo DOA, unless he can convince you his rise is inevitable, which a lot of folks are unwittingly falling for. Use him & discard him.
I think you are underrating how quickly things may come to a head; there are scenarios where a de facto leader of the dem party needs to emerge way sooner than 2027. I don’t like him either, but he’s essentially the only dem right now who’s both doing and performing in that role.
I do not believe this is correct.
Well, at the moment, the sooner one does appear the sooner we can avoid the scenario of memeing Newsom into the candidacy. At the moment that looks to be Pritzker, as you've said, so I agree people should focus on boosting him over dunking on Newsom.
Do we need leadership now? Yes. Do the leaders of the party today have to be the Presidential candidate in 2028? of course not. in what other non-incumbent Democratic primary was the winner "chosen" a year into the previous term? Biden? How did that work out?
The more folks work themselves into "the Dems will shove Newsom down our throats!" the more likely they meme themselves into Newsom having a serious chance (but not a good one) in the primary. He is not a popular figure. Most Californians dislike him whenever he's not aimed at a Republican!
If you hate him, don't meme him into being a serious candidate. People's affections are going to waver anyways. We are really, really early in anything like a primary process & it's rare for the supposedly strong early candidate to actually make it all the way through of late.
I think he’d be fine. The biggest thing he championed in CA I can think of (actually funding universal TK when the state got the Covid budget surplus) has made my life much better. I like Pritzker too. I’ll be happy with either of them.
You didn't have Newsom agreeing with someone who said that your rights were fake and you should be prevented from medical transition until 26.
He’s signed a bunch of legislation protecting trans rights that, imo, far outweighs the podcast, which I wasn’t thrilled about. Eg Sb 107, ab 1955. I think the blowback was warranted but “he’s written off forever” is not
not really sure why people feel a need to think that far ahead. Nobody knew who Obama was in 2005. Who knows, there could be another charismatic nonwhite person with a funny sounding name just hiding in a state senate or city council as we speak. Too early to treat Newsome as only choice.
OMG yes. Thanks.
"bc to them Republicans are the weather" describes one of the great divides on here. Because like two-thirds of the user base is on the other side of that divide and it's EXASPERATING to the rest of us lol. Life is short.
This describes Newsom's new fandom just as well, though. They'd rather fight leftists than Republicans.
Leftists forgot that politics is war by other means and war is politics by other means. The point of both is to coerce others into doing the things you want them to. Leftists don’t think that way. We mostly think my being a leftist means I get to imagine I ain’t complicit while everyone else is.
This is painting a broad brush of course. There are certainly people like that, yeah. And you WILL hear from them. I'm just not super-interested in factional wars in general.
Oh yeah, they're an odd bunch. And not really a cohort I have to interact with much. That whole world of intense technicolor hashtag-heavy Resist accounts and so on.
It happened a little bit yesterday with the eye-rolling "Third Way Memo" kerfuffle. I suddenly had strident leftists and strident resisters whom I didn't know yelling at each other in my replies. I was like "I think you're all insane but I think I've made it!"
Right, yeah. And it's so overwhelmingly LIKELY not to work that it's just not a super-interesting topic right at the moment given all the [GESTURES WILDLY] going on, etc. But here we are. But I guess everybody on BlueSky knows the deal and that this is what people do, so SHRUG.
People are in the depths of despair and think world affairs and political institutions make decisions to torment them personally.
I try to explain that the cure for that feeling is "living a few more decades" because it'll eventually dawn on you that shit just kinda keeps happening and you are not that important. But nobody wants to hear that, heh.
I don't think that's necessarily a convincing cure if you don't expect to live those few more decades or if the government is determined to make you check out early.
Heh, there is that aspect but you can't talk people out of THAT either. Just gotta try to stiffen spines where you can.
Newsom is talking, which is needed. Pritzer appears to be walking.
He's doing talking too, which is why the astroturf brigade is imo so eager to erase Pritzker and act like it's Newsom or Nothing. bsky.app/profile/govp...
I was living in San Francisco in 2004 when Newsom allowed gay marriage and it was an amazing happy hopeful time. A stunt? Maybe, but it directly led to gay marriage becoming legal in California. That's meaningful.
That's 20 years past though.
Yes, but it goes to show the man has a track record of knowing how to push the agenda forward.
Your opinion is noted.
Social media ain't reality. I've heard Newsom's name come up in recent weeks from people who normally don't pay attention to politics.
more importantly than either of those, the rank and file of the Democratic Party do not trust him, even if they appreciate him doing something dramatic and good, but it gives a certain kind of person a permission structure to already declare that they won’t vote in ‘28 lol