Trying to figure out how to get (excellent quality) forecasts/warnings the last mile is tough, complicated, nuanced work without any easy scapegoat or fix. But once you burn enough tools to prevent the high-quality forecast, this kind of tragedy is going to happen way more often
It’s impossible to attribute any particular horrific disaster to the cuts of course, but it’s just clearly true the tail weather events are literally impossible to forecast as well now, so the catastrophic stuff will kill more people and cause more destruction in aggregate, possibly forever.
this tail event - 10-15" of rain in the upper Guadaloupe basin in 12-24hrs - was explicitly forecast by several high res models leading up to the event! I dont think it was literally impossible to forecast
“As well”
My point is just that in aggregate it’s going to make a huge difference even if in each individual event it’s impossible to attribute anything in particular to specific cuts. So there’s like plausible deniability every time but overall there isn’t.
I think the bottom line is that it's never going to be perfect and there is always going to be finger pointing when disasters happen.