Yeah it’s like the meme said the real swing voter isn’t a moderate it’s someone who cares a lot about a random issue that’s not on any candidates platform; probably isn’t even handled by the level of government the election in question is held at (like they hate their senator over a pothole) etc
Someone recently said a moderate voter is someone with strong feelings about vehicle registration fees who has to guess at the name of the Vice President, and that seems exactly right
The country is increasingly run by an authoritarian Republican regime, the fact that democrats can’t harness some free floating low information “the government sucks” moderates in this environment is mind boggling.
And while voting for a Republicans is always wrong, I have sometimes met voters whose niche issue, while not the most important thing, was indeed an important one and often the candidate who spoke about it was simply because somebody else who shared their concern and had reached to them and asked.
So in the rare or under researched disease communities people can get the idea that a certain candidate is their champion, but it’s because someone else from the community had gotten ahold of them and raised the issue. If they could get a hold of a different candidate, it would’ve been different.
My guess is that many swing voters aren't following any particular issue carefully and just vote for the candidate whose vibes they like. Charisma and authenticity matter, a lot. Ronald Reagan remained painfully popular even as the particular positions he took polled poorly.
That is also true from many people. But I’ve definitely had conversations with folks who are exactly as I described.
Yes, I didn't mean to deny that observation!
And you know what never comes off as charismatic? Sounding like you've poll tested every single sentence that comes out of your mouth.