his continues to bother me, but, the new TX map doesn't add 5 GOP held seats, it adds like 2-3 4 if the GOP fully holds their gains with hispanics in 2026 and maybe 5 if they somehow convince cuellar to retire (both of these are doubtful) it's not as effective of a map as people claim it is
also, uh, why would the referendum fail? why is that something we're dooming about. can he like, get a fucking grip maybe
it's not like one of those low profile initiatives that people vote against bc they don't know what they're reading it's something that everybody will be talking about by november, and will have national party support (leading to party polarization)
i read his whole thread and OH MY GOOOD is this some misleading bullshit lmao New York is *not* the only other Dem state thinking about counter-redrawing!
the new TX-35 is 100% winnable for democrats in 2026 it only tilts red by like a little bit, far from a guaranteed gain even as an open seat
if roland gutierrez runs for that seat, he will win i'm glad Casar didn't because he probably would have lost
and i think vicente gonzalez can 100% win re-election if current polling numbers with hispanics are at all accurate plus, they literally made cuellar's seat bluer on a congressional level
i think cuellar might switch parties lol but yeah
sad if real
well he's under indictment lol and in a district which trump won by a good amount; and we all know he's corrupt and far right lol
what do you think is going to happen here LMAO
www.rawstory.com/texas-redist... Apparently Republicans themselves are worried about that exact thing
lol
What fascinates me how data nerds can't decide on numbers of seats. Two days ago Florida was getting 4, now is only 2? Indiana can get 2?! They would have to make almost every currently red seat be below 20% red, when they are still yet to force them to do it at all.
Honestly the main thing that irritates me is this: Folks, if 5-6 gerrymandered seats are the difference between us taking back the House or not, something went very, very wrong. And frankly, if that's the case, being blunt, the country is probably falling apart after that anyway. 🤷♂️
i really do not understand why people think the House is going to come down to some single-digit number of seats again. the last two times the Republicans had the Presidency, Democrats wiped them out in the House - in incredibly similar conditions to what we're seeing for Trump 2 so far.
These "election scientists" are all full of shit. They're using so-called metrics like poor approval and fundraising to downplay what we're actually seeing in polls- massive sliding in approval for Trump, defections amongst his 2024 gains (10% of latinos), and D+5-7 generic ballot polls.
Dem seat efficiency has also gotten better (bc of our own gerrymanders + better candidates)
pretty sure that there are enough GOP-held competitive in just the rust belt alone that could completely off-set the GOP gerrymanders if they flip
I don’t think the Hispanic vote will be a hold for the GOP At this point, they and everyone else knows, we can’t continue with goon squads abducting people and engaging in all imaginable misconduct during these so called raids. It’s super depressing, and the GOP is responsible for doing it.