like brad lander, maya wiley (i forget who else bc i don't have their residences burned into my head but you get the idea)
Progressive Democrat from Jersey City
614 followers 192 following 3,699 posts
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like brad lander, maya wiley (i forget who else bc i don't have their residences burned into my head but you get the idea)
somebody like brad lander would never run to replace him because lander is a brooklyn man, not a manhattan man
something i'm noticing is that when trying to think of a successor, a lot of people are just naming off random NYC pols that they know regardless of whether they live in the district or not
by 0.1
same but like it's still bad
kinda notable that all GOP candidates seem to be capped at 41% here could honestly be a floor for them, and they haven't found a way to grow past it so far
it's time to stop
insightful!
a lot of the twitter pundits do where they pass off bluesky users being mean to them as genuine analysis it is very transparent whenever it happens, and it is big tell to not take them seriously
"here's how to grow your movement" - somebody who hates your movement
there are no special boys in this world we are all able to fall down the twitter alt-right pipeline, and just because you describe yourself as "happy-go-lucky" doesn't mean you are different from everybody else
"if even i am a neo-nazi, then you have no idea what is coming..." "person on twitter becomes a nazi" is probably the most common story ive ever seen, but this gimmick account seems to insist that their specific case is unique and special
when im reading something and i see bolded words in random ass places, it just ticks something off in me
it is resist lib facebook coded in some ways if that makes sense
obviously i get the appeal to this kind of strategy since diet zohran does still take a lot of positive cues from real zohran, but i also kinda view it as kind of unimaginative and unoriginal like, "fast and free buses" isn't ali's policy, and ali himself knows that
here is mussab ali trying to be diet zohran:
extremely impressive for an election during august in an off-year
comparing drey's performance to 2022 in other ways: to auditor 2022 (the best dem showing): - she outperformed sand by 13 points - she won 62% of sand's vote total & to gov 2022 (the worst dem showing): - she outperformed the dem by 33.5 points - she won 79.5% of the dem's vote total
white people
do think that she was genuinely scared about losing and retired bc of it
about the ernst retirement: she was clearly still fundraising like hell in Q2, which far from implies she was planning it far in advance genuinely could just be a snap decision, or one that she was only thinking about starting in july
also this + the tillis retirement doesn't exactly scream confidence from the senate GOP side of things
feel like she didn't have much faith in her own chances after the iowa senate special (and probably some bad internal polling) sad that we're not gonna have the "we're all gonna die"-fest, but i don't think it's likely that the iowa GOP will nominate somebody better than ernst
i have a theory that it is a humiliation ritual
yeah
yeah but like time and change has NOT been kind to iowa democrats
something a bit morbid is that despite catelin grey's 20 point overperformance, she still underperformed obama 2012
It's only MAGA energy if Travis cheats on her with a teenager
no
can more special elections happen pls it is a follower stimulus package
since when did i have 600 followers
white people will go wild for this one
fair
i really don't think it is particularly different than 2004 election denialism imo it exists, but it is far from systemic in party culture and doesn't really have any legs as movement it's probably even more muted than 2004
this is specifically to the lakysha tweet but ig it is applicable to all of them to an extent
the democrat most electable in rural northern maine and the democrat most electable in northeastern queens is totally different can he comprehend this
i don't think ettingermentum can comprehend a "no one size fits all" approach, where the faction of democratic that's most electable varies by region he thinks that "you need to be one specific ideology for universal electability" and nothing deeper than that
(me)
it's good for hacks tho
these numbers are so divergent that it feels like the respondents got fed absolutely wild bios
katie brennan must do a heist to get into sherill's inner circle, for the sake of the state
true facts true facts
i hope she would succeed as governor, but there are way too many ticking timebombs in NJ state government a lot of this is just "i hope the right person has her ear at the right time"
it might be different for an incumbent governor sherill tho like im pretty you could say the same things about pre-afghanistan biden and look at how that turned out
i think there is a kinda trumpy aspect to it (specifically 2024 trump) where people just don't believe a lot of the negative attacks against her she also has never really faced off against somebody who was good at narrative control, and i really don't think ciattarelli will be the first
there's an NJ globe article line that kinda stuck with me about sherill, and it was about her being an "unusually difficult politician to attack" even despite being the center of a lot of negative attention, her favorables are always pretty high even in polls kinda mid for her in the topline
or maybe just medium sized town america
small town america pls continue to come in clutch 🙏
The 2025 IA SD-1 Special Election, Following Sen. Rocky De Witt’s death due to pancreatic cancer saw strong fund raiser Catelin Drey best the Right wing Republican Chris Prosch in her quest to flip this seat blue & successfully break the GOP supermajority in the Iowa state senate
this means the anti-machine firebrand statewide candidate that everybody likes is in 2033 help
wow!
you're prob right sherill + gottheimer + sweeney is 52.7%, which does show a path in a more consolidated field
it does make the state senate/assembly primary challenges somewhat obvious, but it does make the path to an actual statewide primary win extremely difficult
i think baraka with fulop fundraising would've beaten sherill
yuppie liberals are a vital part of the anti-machine coalition, but they prob won't be totally at its helm, probably playing second fiddle to disaffected minority voters it is basically the question of baraka or fulop, and the 2025 primary results seemed to show baraka was the more effective one
i'm kinda sick of the helicopter prosecutor talking point, but it hasn't worn out it's welcome to the general electorate so i'm not gonna openly complain about it (yet)
thank you for voting in the iowa special
the primary results showed this
i think a lot of the annoying suburban republicans in the assembly that rely on downballot lag will finally go away after that, well, hope she'll surprise everybody
canadian provincial politics have different party systems than the federal system
she is strong where she needs to be strong imo
if nothing else, it is good that her biggest strength is with voters who are higher turnout in state elections she is a sponge for high propensity, ancestral republicans, which are a lot more important in state elections compared to presidential ones
god bless wab kinew
the special election overperformances aren't stopping???
my iowa special posts are attracting bots, i made it
it would make "we're all gonna die" the slogan of the iowa GOP
ddhq lied earlier, it is actually a 21.7 point overperformance
it's actually a 20 point shift after the votes finished (the GOP tried to do fraud but it wasn't enough to stop the unbeatable bliowa)
they lose half of their federal house seats MINIMUM imo
PUT A BULLET IN IT IOWA GOP SENATE SUPERMAJORITY GONE AND A 20 POINT OVERPERFORMANCE
THE DEMOCRATS HAVE FLIPPED IOWA'S #SD01 (Trump+11), BREAKING THE REPUBLICAN SUPERMAJORITY IN THE STATE SENATE: Catelin Drey (D)- 54.5% Christopher Prosch (R)- 45.5%
share went down but like... still like a 20 point overperformance and also nearly everything in...
trump+11
WHAT THE ACTUAL FUCK WE HIT THE GOD OVERPERFORMANCE
true!
no way???
that is also like 20 points bluer than the georgia district
must watch the iowa special with oddly good democratic turnout closely now
lol
how much should we generally expect the democratic share to go down when more votes drop
i'm doing that right now
phil murphy said like two seconds after she announced it that he didn't think the governor had the power to unilaterally do that which he is probably right about, but it does make the policy more populist by making it more "outside of the mainstream"
unironically do think sherill is trying to lean into economic populist policy by announcing that she is gonna freeze utility bills which is funny coming from her of all people
the labour party is employing the ron desantis strategy of trying to outflank the more popular right-populist from the right bold maneuver, let's see how it works out for them
informative!
like, she says that it's an authoritarian power grab right there and relentless economy message that doesn't distract from that is good so i don't really see the problem here
i think this framing is fine
i personally wouldn't really cross municipality boundaries along the newark bay and hackensack/passaic rivers that often when you have (or just municipality borders in general)
i missed that troy jackson was running for governor but this seems like a pretty good ticket
thanks for being helpful google AI overview
a lot
it wouldn't even be as much of a problem if there was an easier way to amend the constitution that wasn't the current lovecraftian horror of amendment addition
yeah, for as good as the 14th amendment is, it is effectively just words on paper if there aren't any political actors willing to enforce it
after the civil war, i wouldn't really say that the constitution allowed for jim crow policy to happen, more like the supreme court willingfully misinterpreted the reconstruction amendments to allow for segregation until the 1950s
sad if real
there are quite a few people who have great insight that i've unfollowed just bc their retweets made my TL unbearable
