Am I really communicating so opaquely that you think I don't trust the climate modellers? I asked a question in umpteen different ways to which not a single respondent has been able to understand. How much more energy does a risen ocean hold, and if it does hold more as it rises, does that...
Jim is the one who suggested that the climate models have not been accurate. Bluesky does not make it clear to people in a convo who is being replied to I often forget.
The reason why many models have issues is bc they don't incorporate the oceans adequately. We now see more and more reports of: effects are worse, impacts underestimated, things changing faster. Why? Bc models are inadequate. When oceans are included, models improve. PIK group produce best models.
I'm a whole less focused on predicting climate change than I am on trying to convince people to mitigate against as much global warming as they possibly can manage.
That's commendable. However, there's this pesky thing called thermal inertia (which the oceans have loads of). What we're experiencing now is the result of GHG levels of 15-20 years ago. The current effects won't be experienced for another 15-20 years. Lag effects, major annoyance....
Is the inertia thing the reason why warming won't stop if we ended emissions, or "net-zero"?
Yes, sadly all of the scientific knowledge clearly indicates that we need to build up a massive carbon capture and sequestration circular economy in order to pull greenhouse gases out of our polluted atmosphere and surface waters.
not a likely scenario I'm afraid
Unfortunately, yes. Sometimes called pipeline warming. A pipe is full of hot water. Even after it's no longer being heated, the tap has to run for some time b4 cooler water comes out. That's what's happening w climate system. It will take many centuries for the heat in oceans to stop diffusing ➡️atm
When we reach net-zero warming will stop. It’s important to stress this because it provides a solid foothold to work and organize towards. But it has to be true carbon balance. CDR after that could bring temperatures back to preindustrial levels over time—probably necessary to save coastal cities.
Yes, I replied to him thinking it was you earlier.
... decrease the amount radiated back out into space. therefore the whole EEI thing. whatever.... It's totally moot, but for another day.