Your point about the PV is correct but Republicans had a great Senate map in 2018 and didn’t really overperform it. They fumbled WV!
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Yea they won in Florida, Indiana, Missouri, and North Dakota. Not huge surprises
jul 30, 2025, 2:54 am • 3 0 • view
yeah also, trump's approval was lower at this point in 2017 than it was now BECAUSE HE HAD LUKEWARM APPROVALS AMONG REPUBLICANS, who largely came home after TCJA's passage. this time, his approvals look higher because he started with massive approvals among republicans and has room to fallw ith them
jul 30, 2025, 4:03 pm • 2 0 • view
while trump's approvals rebounded post-TCJA as recalcitrant republicans came home, this time around, there actually seems to be steady bleeding among them (and even/especially the MAGA chuds) over the epstein shit of all things. i don't think these situations are 1:1
jul 30, 2025, 4:07 pm • 3 0 • view