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Jessica Kant @jessdkant.bsky.social

This is when we were talking about just “pausing” PEPFAR funds. Note projections here are for only 7 countries— not globally.

new infections to reach about 103 thousand [95% UI: 81-126 thousand] under the Executive order—realistic scenario, and about 81 thousand [95% UI: 64-98 thousand] under the Executive order-proportional scenario. Even under both Waiver scenarios, excess new infections reach 50 thousand [95% UI: 37-65 thousand] when PEPFAR is resumed after 8 weeks, and 35 thousand [95% UI: 19-50 thousand] when PEPFAR is resumed after 4 weeks (Appendix Table A3).
sep 1, 2025, 2:59 pm • 21 4

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Jessica Kant @jessdkant.bsky.social

But when modeling the long term effect, it’s incomprehensible. www.ox.ac.uk/news/2025-04...

The authors conducted an original modelled analysis using existing data to predict the risks children in sub-Saharan Africa would face in the absence of PEPFAR programmes, including increased HIV infections, AIDS-related deaths, and orphanhood. The estimates suggest that by 2030, there could be 1 million new cases of paediatric HIV and 460,000 additional AIDS-related deaths in children. Furthermore, if there is a complete cessation of PEPFAR, it could substantially reduce adult life expectancies, potentially leaving 2.8 million additional children orphaned.
sep 1, 2025, 3:01 pm • 29 8 • view