People who take the tradpub path: 1-in-100 odds of making any money at all, often one-book-contract-and-done, v. seldom NYT-level People who take the indie path: 1-in-25 odds of making any money at all, most often coffee-money, pretty often electric bill money, ~10% make substantial income.
I think that's probably overstating the odds positively for tradpub. I'm being generous there because people often don't even get on the path... they quit before even querying. Self-pub has a much bigger success rate of people actually going through the whole process (putting the book out there).
Yes, my KDP account goes back to 2008. I've also been around the self-pub trenches for a very long time! I've sold half a million indie books and have watched all the changes--the shift to 70% royalties, freebies breaking into their own list, KDP Select, KU1, KU2. The dynamics are always shifting!
In spite of that, I would probably not feel confident making projections about what % of people are achieving what goals in what manner, because while I have watched a *lot* of shit happen, I have also watched it get increasingly difficult to accomplish anything in EVERY corner of publishing.
I only throw out numbers because no one else seems to want to and it leaves the impression that All Things Are Equally Likely, and I feel like that's not true. Certainly more challenges every year; then again,no tiktok when I started. But probably ill-advised to try to help people in a bsky thread.
I think the reason we all seem do be disconnecting is that this was a thread that said "which path is best depends on your goals" and I don't think you even seem to disagree with that? No one said anything about accessibility or money or anything else. It's a new topic, not an oversight!