Thank you for this respectful response. Yes, the average effect sizes of ads are small and on *average* decay effect studies show that all effects fade after a few weeks. But as Elliott Morris has discussed obliquely recently, heterogeneity is quite large and there can be hidden nonlinear effects.
One thing to remember is that in our current media enviro, you or I might never actually encounter any ads, directly (I’m not in CA), 2nd-hand if not shared by a member of my network who was exposed, or via media. I shall take a wait-and-see approach (more-so I am curious what their polling says).
Yes! I have to run right now but can we put a pin in this and perhaps come back to it? I do want some feedback from ad experts on this- I think there is leverage here we may be leaving on the table. Appreciate the response.
also two-step flow can apply for ads as well as news
And imagine quantifying all the earned media