@vanhollen.senate.gov and @jeff-merkley.bsky.social are great!
Status Quo Politics is holding us back. Who will call for a big fight, and big change? The status quo cannot hold. SCOTUS delenda est
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@vanhollen.senate.gov and @jeff-merkley.bsky.social are great!
☝️
Yes. The real 2nd amendment is about militias, period. There is no, zero, nunca individual right to a gun in the Constitution. Scalia made that up. The Scalia Second Amendment must be ended
Maybe part of the problem is the Harvard Law effect described by @jeisinger.bsky.social : too many members of Congress have spent their lives chasing the next gold ring, and so they don’t want to take risks or do things that might fail. (Re: @eschatonblog.com comment)
This is a good point. It is indeed ok to fight battles you might not win! Because much of the point is to drive media coverage and get attention.
Just reform the Court and overturn the made-up Scalia Second Amendment.
NPR “both-siding” Trump bankrupting DC restaurants like one of his casinos. We know what the racists fear, & it ain’t “crime.”
""The people of DC deserve better than what the mayor said today. Our demand remains that all escalated federal forces leave DC immediately" 👀👀👀
Parsing budget bills for plausible rationales to ship scared kids to foreign countries should end the legal careers of the lawyers involved.
Strategist Brain — quantbrain — is killing us. @benmathislilley.bsky.social :
The parallels are uncanny
Sorry, I should have been more precise. Yes, Trump’s approval is falling; below 40%. That’s good. But it’s not enough. We need to get him down in the 20’s before Congressional Republicans will start to stand up and buck him. What Noem is doing here is shoring up his vibes and approval.
Note the way it goes on the other side: When things are calm and going well, under Obama and Biden, Republicans act like things are radical. They shout about Fast and Furious and MS-13 and the border and Benghazi. They know that vibes matter. Enormously.
Noem is on TV to lie to create calm while they do radical things. The proper response is to act like what’s happening is radical. Dems should be on TV *shouting*.
Kristi Noem is on TV to lie about DC and LA to get everyone to calm down while they quietly stuff fascism down our throats. Schumer and Jeffries are both staying quiet and—critically—pressuring the other Senators and Reps to stay quiet.
I am absolutely a broken record but: Trumpers are well on their way of convincing a majority of the public that everything is normal and fine. And that is because @schumer.senate.gov and @hakeem-jeffries.bsky.social are not out in public shouting about the occupations of DC and LA.
In fact, given the asymmetry of bullshit in American politics, this kind of thing heavily favors the right. Perhaps that is the goal
Oh, the big problem we face is that they’re telling all the other members to stay away from cameras and microphones That’s why they need to go
Because I understand political economy and who was incentivized to say what
*Alec
In any case we are not expressing a minority view, as one can see by traveling the country. Even Jeffries and Schumer, who have been rightfully maligned here for their clinging to the status quo, get how bad this is, deep down. Does Alex live in a diverse community?
I don’t know Alec but his POV is consistent both with someone who doesn’t see the whole sweep of the electorate and with what Orwell said: intellectuals are more pessimistic about change because their imaginations (of the ways things can go wrong) are stronger.
At the electorate level this isn’t about political ideology. It is about information. Now, there are also a number of professionals and academics who are out of touch with #NoKings and have trouble imagining change. Orwell analyzed this group well in Second Thoughts on Burnham.
There are likewise large numbers of Dem and R voters who are blissfully unaware of what’s happening. No idea DC is under occupation, no idea what the attacks on foreign aid or cancer research or protective regulations/EPA/NOAA/FEMA mean. 2/
To expand a bit: My view is informed by talking to dozens or hundreds of voters since Jan 20, in ~10 states (incl red/purple states) and abroad. Specifically: There are millions—10M?— Dem activated base voters who want punishment and a second reconstruction. This is #NoKings. 1/
This is good and it’s a sign that we are mobilizing Senate Democrats via asking them to do more. Good.
*If LBJ were the minority leader right now
I note you skipped the “1964” part of my post 🤔
LBJ took action: he got the bill passed. If LBJ were running the Senate today he’d bring the chamber to a dead halt. There’s people who keep the lights on at complex organizations. And then there are leaders. @aoc.bsky.social is a leader. Schumer is a lights-on person. He needs to step down.
Some fools are telling me that legislative people can never be real leaders, that the skill set is different. Bullshit. Watch this LBJ speech. Is @schumer.senate.gov giving speeches like this, citing Lexington and Concord, about the reanimated Confederacy conquering DC? Do this, Senators.
Miriam Adelson, Bob Kraft, and Paul Singer are AIPAC donors.
This is a good sign. Also AIPAC money today comes mostly from Republican billionaires. Double good.
Because it’s a sign of what aipac means now to the D electorate
This is actually pretty big
New plan: we get Obama to demand the death certificate
Yeah good point, LBJ was such a terrible communicator he couldn’t be elected president in 1964. Moreover, the parliamentary distinction is dumb. The issue isn’t parliamentary vs presidential, it’s generational and personality-based. Jeffries squelched AOC’s leadership bid.
What Schumer doesn’t realize is that he is standing on top of rotten wood that is about to collapse. The Democratic base sees that he’s not fighting! He’s not going to be able to keep up the charade. Check this from @mehdirhasan.bsky.social on @booker.senate.gov
Harness this energy @hakeem-jeffries.bsky.social and @schumer.senate.gov or resign your leadership positions. Do not expect to sit back and let Republicans defeat themselves. You must *lead*. Or let other members take your leadership roles.
What you’re saying is the most milquetoast obvious fact to anyone paying attention who has talked to more than a few voters in the last few months. Is someone arguing with you? What?
Harness this @schumer.senate.gov. Or resign the leadership position
Harness this energy, Democrats, or lose the Republic. First step is Jeffries and Schumer go as Congressional leaders.
12. But importantly, Gavin Newsom did not accept as true anything Trump and the Republicans say about crime and public safety. He did not validate any of their lies. He did not concede any ground to them.
Correct!
One of the best signs I've ever seen Enjoy your Labor Day Weekend
The thing that makes it unlikely the senate will change the rules in this way is that blowing up the filibuster blows up the “hotline.” And that would massively disempower individual senators.
Right and then it’s precedent. That’s the “nuclear option.”
The thing that Schumer doesn’t realize when he sees AOC do cooking or NYC or PR videos is that she wraps her message into the videos. It’s not just her with food; that is not enough.
Chuck Schumer is a good man who has done some good things. But he is no Winston Churchill, which is what is needed now. Schumer needs to be replaced as Democratic leader.
He was afraid to do his job
The Republican Party platform is Project 2025
what is happening?
"We can't just do thoughts and prayers, we need action" without doing any action is the new "thoughts and prayers".
Yes yes yes
Freedom and democratic values are popular and can be activated. That Dem leaders think we can't win that way is just a failure of messaging and action. It's a skill issue, not a fundamental feature of the electorate.
Agency leaders can lead; they can change culture and they can drive the agency in new directions. To do that, they must be leaders, not bureaucrats who put process over outcome. Garland was a process-first bureaucrat. That's why he failed.
also, Garland / Old-DOJ defenders didn't always say "Garland's Got This!" Sometimes they said "Garland's doing everything he can, there's nothing more he can do!" That is also wrong, false, and naive, at best. It's wrong now and it was wrong four years ago. Garland should have led at DOJ.
It's also important to be honest about who did what. We are increasingly realizing that accountability is important for future planning. So: Joe Biden, and his chief legal advisor Bob Bauer, also failed us on this. Bauer and Biden chose Garland. Then, they didn't fire Garland. That was failure.
Evidence of that failure:
Not for the past, but for the future: Merrick Garland completely failed us. He failed us because he didn't drive change in DOJ culture to prosecute insurrectionists, coup plotters, and white collar criminals. And everyone who said "Just Wait! Garland's doing it!" should be disregarded forever.
I stand by this
I apologize for name-calling in first post here, but I agree and went off in this thread. Anyone who says “GOF research may well have [killed millions]” doesn’t understand GOF, research, or politics.
"The essence of MAGA is unpopular. If self-identified liberals and progressives and self-identified moderates aligned unreluctantly to protect things they jointly care about (free and fair elections, civil equality, rule of law, etc.) they would win pretty easily." Mamdani-Lander coalition, yes. 1/
Specifically, the word 'freedom' is important and for some reason the left doesn't use it as much as they could. It's a perfectly acceptable replacement for 'democracy' in any way Dems need to use it and it also touches on so many more aspects of life beyond just voting.
Blocked someone whose first four timeline posts center either racial division or left/moderate division, and push nihilism and futility. Plus they have an AI avatar. There are real people who feel this way. But not every account that says this is real! I am in this for coalition building, together.
Freedom and democratic values are popular and can be activated. That Dem leaders think we can't win that way is just a failure of messaging and action. It's a skill issue, not a fundamental feature of the electorate.
put a different way: The Dem Quantbrain Data people say we can't win by running on democracy. But have they ever been to a red state? Half of the people at any store or event are wearing a t-shirt saying "FREEDOM."
Driving young people and swing voters is going to require fighting against Trump. And telling a story that billionaires made our lives bad and we must fight against oligarchy and for what Beutler says: rule of law, democracy, freedom, pluralism, tolerance.
Will that work outside of NYC? Will it work nationally? The coalition will, yes. @grahamformaine.bsky.social in Maine can pull together this coalition if he can excite young people and get suburban moms and the professional/college class. Look at Osborne in NE. But ppl want fight, and change.
It's not what Mamdani SOLD. He led with affordability. But his COALITION — young people, liberal to centrist Jews and professionals (thanks, Brad Lander) — is just what @brianbeutler.bsky.social says. It's self-identified liberals, progressives, moderates, and the young.
"The essence of MAGA is unpopular. If self-identified liberals and progressives and self-identified moderates aligned unreluctantly to protect things they jointly care about (free and fair elections, civil equality, rule of law, etc.) they would win pretty easily." Mamdani-Lander coalition, yes. 1/
obama listed Abundance as one of his top three summer reads
FYI on DC mayor
If Sullivan gets the Halberstam treatment — gets a book like this written about his hubris, idiocy, and world-changing errors — it will not be enough to fix what he and the Biden White House did, with Greenblatt’s complicity and support.
Video
bsky.app/profile/prot...
He is going the way of McGeorge Bundy: disgraced. And we should do everything possible to push him there.
? can you say more?
what is it? Would love to post it
@joshtpm.bsky.social is talking about competition for Newsom? This is competition for Newsom
Video
This is a DC council member, @janeese4dc.bsky.social . Move over, Dem Senators, there is a competition on for who can oppose Trump and she may well win it. Good to see
Yes. He’s literally paid by Charles Koch at FIRE because he will push libertarian takes on free speech billionaires can weaponize to harm liberals and the left
Well, I sort of agree, and I don’t think that we could actually achieve it. But the right has the ability to absolutely blackball people who come out against the billionaires agenda.
dirty secret: Dem donors ARE putting money into institutions now, but it's all Abundist institutions. The number of new nonprofits named with some combo of Abundance Green Equitable Institute New Energy Progress right now is insane. They're all corporatist/centrist.
the first lesson is: build stronger institutions! We should have an AFP, a Stronger Together, a DC Examiner, and a State Policy Network. Dem donors like @mcuban.bsky.social should put money into long-term institutions, not optimizing "cost per vote."
This is right, but the left-right comparisons have been missing something. Rightwing institutions do exert control, they just do post hoc control: if you say things rightwing donors do not like, you get cut off. Dems don't have the same sort of institutions, so they can't exert control this way.
The Shor types think they're testing what 'works.' But they're really testing something else, something ineffective. The problem is that they're selling their tests as 'what works,' and thus foreclosing any experimentation. Spiers gets that right too. We need to take risks, and innovate.
and sorry - hope you have an excellent trip whatever happens!
thanks, Scalia and SCOTUS
message-testing has its role! It can help select different versions of tactical messaging. But it is no substitute for strategy. The best strategic messages may well test poorly! Experimentation, taking risks, vibing w/ culture, motivating ppl: that's what's needed, not bloodless quantbrain-ism.
The Shor types think they're testing what 'works.' But they're really testing something else, something ineffective. The problem is that they're selling their tests as 'what works,' and thus foreclosing any experimentation. Spiers gets that right too. We need to take risks, and innovate.
And doing that would mean testing against literally all entertainment. (Impossible.) So in one swoop we have highlighted the complete hollowness of the poll-testing approach that centrist leadership, consultants, and donors love so much.
Why is this important? Because Blue Rose and Future Forward ad/message tests are testing against OTHER POLITICAL MESSAGES. But Spiers is right; that isn't the important measure. The important measure is what holds attention. (related to @anatosaurus.bsky.social on what gets ppl talking.)
Deeply considered and smart piece from @espiers.bsky.social. It has a line that sharply undercuts the whole Shor / Future Forward / Blue Rose approach of message-testing as strategy. "They think they're competing against political messaging, [but] they are competing against [all] entertainment" 1/
the D base is activated and angry at leadership
and this applies even outside DC — DC's lack of statehood allows Trump to take over the local cops. But the above is about effectively taking over the local cops everywhere.
people, this seems bad "Clues in Project 2025" about changing the criminal law to give Trump more influence over state/local law enforcement. Relevant to what @joshtpm.bsky.social has been saying about states needing to stand up: MAGA/Vought/Miller are trying to preempt that.
Re-reading the report of the Social Security whistleblower, it is striking how many times good people within SSA tried to keep DOGE from committing crimes. Here's my understanding of the timeline 🧵
With you