odd example though, given that lab did somewhat effectively hold together leavers and remainers in 2017 and did well, but lost the leavers in 2019
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I mean, *just lying* can be an incredible strategy in the short term. Promising incompatible things to different groups, likewise. Hedging worked as long as the other party in near-duopoly hedged too. But it was inevitable that either tories would go full brexit or duopoly would break.
aug 30, 2025, 11:31 pm • 0 0 • view
I'm confused. In what way were the Tories hedging after the referendum? Lab shifting to a second ref position was entirely due to internal moves against corbyn. And who was lying?
aug 30, 2025, 11:35 pm • 0 0 • view
May trying to get a deal that respected the 'red lines', and was slightly less bad than the worst possible deal. Not much to you and me but a massive betrayal to a lot of leavers (who obvs never trusted her anyway). The alternative was going 'full boris', getting out asap even if no deal etc
aug 30, 2025, 11:39 pm • 0 0 • view
Labour could hold on to leavers in a world where the tories weren't 'delivering brexit' and were telling people the kind of deal mattered. As soon as tories went 'brexit or bust' labour was gonna lose a lot of them. And labour's only value to remain was if it could bring leavers on board with a >
aug 30, 2025, 11:44 pm • 0 0 • view
compromise. Once your voter coalition is remain-dominated there's nobody to compromise with so no point in acceoting weak sauce. Perfectly rational to vote lib dem at that point,since they are actually offering what you actually want.
aug 30, 2025, 11:44 pm • 0 0 • view
Ps 'lying' was just the classic example of a strategy that works really well for a bit but when it stops working goes really bad really fast. I was just using in abstract sense. Not making accusations.
aug 30, 2025, 11:46 pm • 0 0 • view
Made selfish sense if you wanted to gamble everything on 2017 because doubted you'd get another GE of course. Probably nobody really gave much weight to a scenario in which Labour lost but didn't change leader.
aug 30, 2025, 11:33 pm • 2 0 • view
But yeah. It was, for the party and the country, a bad strategy. The same thing that boosted lab in 17 sowed the seeds of downfall in 2019. Not to absolve the wreckers etc. But labour's own strategy was enough to fuck them (and all of us) on its own.
aug 30, 2025, 11:36 pm • 0 0 • view