5. Yet despite it all, on security Democrats and Israel have stayed largely aligned. There was the whole disagreement around the JCPOA but Obama still approved billions for iron Dome and a new ten year MOU for nearly $40 billion for Israel.
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6. Biden sent aircraft carriers to in the aftermath of October 7th and deterred Iran. We worked together to defeat two Iranian missile attacks on Israel. Stood by Israel as it conducted operations against Hezbollah and provided a $14 billion supplemental for security assistance after October 7th.
may 12, 2025, 2:54 pm • 10 2 • view
7. As for Republicans, Netanyahu and Dermer have for years now been putting all their chips in with the Republicans party and burning bridges with democrats. Their bet has been that Republicans will side with Israel both on security and the Palestinians. It turns out it was a bad bet.
may 12, 2025, 2:54 pm • 13 5 • view
8. Trump’s second term policy towards Israel and the middle east is drifting away from traditional Republican hawkishness and religious conservatism support for Israel’s security and towards isolationism and transactionlism as it is in much of the rest of the world.
may 12, 2025, 2:55 pm • 11 3 • view
9. He cut his own deal with the Houthis to stop attacks in the Red Sea. negotiating his own deal with Iran. talking about decoupling the U.S.-Saudi deals from Israel-Saudi normalizing. He is going to the Gulf to conduct business while avoiding the security headache of Israel.
may 12, 2025, 2:56 pm • 9 2 • view
10. We also have a new MOU that needs to be negotiated for Israel’s security assistance as the current one expires in 2028. Does anyone believe Trump is going to give the Israelis what he would see as this massive freebee without significant concessions - much more than what Obama asked for.
may 12, 2025, 2:56 pm • 8 2 • view
11. Still Trump isn’t really pushing too much on the Palestinian issue and is giving the Israelis free rein in the West Bank while pushing a Gaza plan that displaces millions of Palestinians. It’s the near exact opposite of where Democrats have been.
may 12, 2025, 2:57 pm • 9 1 • view
12. But this dichotomy isn’t going to hold. If Israel doesn’t reverse course there is a good chance that Trump starts breaking with Israel on the Palestinians and democrats break with Israel on security.
may 12, 2025, 2:57 pm • 9 2 • view
13. Trump is going to hear from the Gulf states they’d love to do more with Israel, but the Palestinian issue is a headache & stands in the way. as he focuses on regional deals and a future based on AI and major financial investments, Israel and the Israeli-Palestinian will just be an irritant.
may 12, 2025, 2:58 pm • 9 2 • view
14. Trump will either just press Israel to deal with it. Or he and the Gulf states will just move on without Israel. After all, the real money is in the U.S. and the Gulf. It’s great to involve Israel but not absolutely necessary if it’s too much of a headache
may 12, 2025, 2:58 pm • 7 0 • view
15. Meanwhile, Democrats aren’t going to continue to support unlimited security cooperation as Israel moves away from them on the Palestinians. 18 senators already voting to withhold certain weapons & Biden withholding the 2000 pound bombs. On the current trajectory this fissure will only grow.
may 12, 2025, 2:59 pm • 9 1 • view
Question Displaces as in 'disappears'?
may 12, 2025, 3:43 pm • 0 0 • view
Netanyahu has been a card carrying member of the face eating leopard part for a long time. It was just a matter of time.
may 12, 2025, 2:58 pm • 0 0 • view