I think it's important to balance realism about the building risks around the America Crisis with avoidance of overly linear determinism. Take risks seriously but also acknowledge that with luck and a lot of work future US administrations could fix them
But the longer the current dynamic drags on then even in a best case scenario the more resources future US governments will need to rebuild state capacity that underpins great power status
State *credibility* seems to be the main problem? Resources can rebuild capacity in time, but it will be much harder if everyone believes that a maniac will be elected in 4 yrs to trash it all again. As for diplomacy, clearly people who dealt in good faith with post-2016 US are credulous idiots.
What do you see as the possible source of a durable political consensus for rebuilding state capacity? Or an elite consensus for rebuilding independent institutions?
Where my pessimism kicks in is that my hunch is there needs to be a severe financial shock to the US system at a time when the GOP is in power to create space for comprehensive reform, debunk stale elite consensus and long term discredit the hard right. Like how 1929 led to the New Deal
Or perhaps better precedents would be how the crashes of the 1840s/50s (2008) created the basis for the much bigger shock of 1873
Much more than this is necessary. I find it obvious that the current regime is not willing to give up power anymore, no matter future election outcomes. The next transfer of power won‘t happen by peaceful means. Whether small scale violence or full civil war will depend on the US military.
That’s how l think as well, and the fact that you do as well makes me feel…better? Except it’s a terrible thing to think
Maybe the pope can help. The corrupt decision to vote for Trump and the failure to stand up now, indicates that there is a perversion of morality and that it is disconnected from action. A society will fail if people just optimise actions against their local oft manipulated utility gradient.
The moral decay has spread. Alligator Alcatraz, remigration, anti-renewables,… these are all things which people babble out or accept which are immediately or by simple extension highly immoral. Instead of listening we should tar and feather these guys or at least make them watch ABBA musicals.
That’s right, I agree. But I have trouble imagining the source of bi/nonpartisanship that would restore balance and continuity to American institutions. At this point it is at best a see-saw, like much of Latin America.
It is probably me, but as a challenge: I can't think of a country on such a collision course with reality and that stopped before it actually did collide with reality. When that happens and with time, some have come back (Germany, Japan, on a lower level many former colonial powers).
Brazil with nukes except at this point Brazil is the more stable state with underrated regional hegemon potential
This is true but also important to acknowledge where any rubicons may exist - with Brexit lots of people couldn’t get their head around the one way nature of leaving, or they though this would make it impossible that anyone would ever do it… US reserve currency status is prob one of these things.