Detention sites would fill up, you get several in various regions, local residents would want to get rid of them because of impact on infra and property prices, anti-government protesters would hone in on them, you get major protests in cities and popular disobedience against cops enforcing arrests
Meanwhile SNP and Plaid make hay out of the whole thing to present the case that independence/sovereignty association are the only way to escape authoritarianism and chaos unleashed by a Reform UK government. It gets messy very quickly in ways the UK security state can't handle
This arcs back a bit to what drove me nuts about so much EU/UK covid debate when too often the second question after the balance of public health/human rights implications were discussed should have been "but wait a minute does the state even have the capacity to enforce this"?
Reform will go into this thinking it has the will of the people on its side and walk straight into a massive policing crisis it does not have competent people to handle
LARPing Trump will look less attractive by 2028 anyway if Miller's dash for glory ends up with riots and gunfights in US cities
As a slight aside to this point, it is utterly inexplicable to me that ICE have not run full-on into a person standing their ground with an AR in the entrance hall of their own home yet.
There's apparently been a case of someone shooting some masked people *pretending* to be ICE who turned up on their doorstep, so it's probably going to happen sooner or later.
A reasonable chance that the currently very small pro-independence faction of Welsh Labour suddenly gets a lot bigger as a matter of political survival.
I guess I’ll believe in the viability of Indy as a political force when Plaid consistently poll better than Reform, who are equivocal at most on *devolution*
I just have an extremely strong prior that Welsh independence is the future and always will be when the collapse of support for Labour after a century of being a single party support is probably going to *still* a produce a Senedd that’s 2/3rds unionist or close to that
That's fair and would generally be my view normally, but with a scenario this chaotic all sorts of odd things might happen. The bit I'm not looking forward to as a Welsh speaker is the likely repoliticisation of language issues over the next few years.
the UK has neither mixage nor brassage in its policing and army functions with no UK/Federal police in Scotland apart from British Nuclear and MOD police and locally raised territorial army units Reading the papers in the National Archive about the NI crises of 1967-1975 highlighted the problem
Ethnic Irish Units were kept out of NI until the merger of the (Irish) Royal Irish Rangers and the (British) Ulster Defence Regiment in the 1980s. Liverpool Irish troops were turned back at the docks in the 1960s
"bad news I'm afraid Prime Minister. It seems that 70% of the country doesn't want them anywhere nearby because they're detention camp and the other 30% doesn't want them because they're full of refugees"
Farage is such an opportunist I wouldn't be surprised if he pulls an "Italian governments every 6 years or so", declares an amnesty and just dumps a lot of these people into the street.
Thing is he might have the opportunistic instincts of the Silvio and Haider generation to know when to do a 180, but I doubt the cadre of Millennial and Zoomer NatCons entering Reform do. Then we get to find out who is Kickl to Farage's Haider.
Tbh I think more mundane issues like "where do we put all the piss and feces" and "how do we stop the spread of disease through the camp" or "how do we maintain order amongst inmates" would bring the whole concept crashing down before those issues can