Right but there's tons of countries in the Middle East, why would they go for one that's a pariah state, *especially* in the Global South countries that as you point out China is all over already? What good does Israel's nukes do to countries that already have their own?
Why would Russia in particular torch its relationship with Iran?
Netanyahu and Putin have had a bunch of meetings and alliances already — l don’t know that Russia cares about anything except Russia itself. There could be a point where a US-less Israel is a better partner than Iran and …
"There could be a point" right but *would* there be. You said there *are* parties "ready to jump in". That's a way more certain statement than "huh idk it's not impossible I guess". You are specifically arguing that US/EU ending their support for Israel wouldn't help. That requires more than "could"
Ready to jump in if the US/EU are out- which is not now- as an opportunity would emerge. My language was stronger than l meant it, my apologies.
my “ready” was trying to describe the military capabilities— not the willingness to jump. Sorry it was confusing.
But your claim - that withdrawing EU/US support wouldn't cause Israel to lose, or at least shouldn't be assumed to - requires both capability *and* willingness to jump.
Hence my apologies above for being unclear. I think that some will be so, you disagree.
More broadly, l wouldn’t assume that if Israel were “on the market” b/c no EU/US support, it wouldn’t be seen as an opportunity by some other power that cares even less for Palestinians/human rights. It’s not a given.
Who assumed this or said it was a given? US & EU should withdraw support regardless, but in terms of expecting this will put Israel in difficulty one needs only think it's *probable* to talk about as people do.
Why do you think US/EU support Israel? Not for any lofty reasons…only as a foothold in ME and as counter power to Iran. Other superpower would have similar interests. It’s an exchange- you do this for me, l do that for you. But again, l am not a FP expert. Only sharing my lay opinion
Right. Because US/EU are opposed to Iran. And there are also very tight cultural ties between US/EU and Israel, literal strong personal & familial relationships given the migration between them. The other superpowers you say are aligned with Iran or neutral to it, and don't have that cultural link.
I mean, Russia maybe on the cultural link idk. But it's dumb to claim that the purpose of the US/EU - Israel relationship is for Israel to be a catspaw against Iran, and suggest Russia would want Israel for the same reason when Iran is *its* catspaw in the ME. And a big source of missiles it needs!
I have no insight in the mind of Putin- only notice a lot of this going on www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_ent...
And this www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analy...
Cool, Israel would get an ally that's mired in its own genocidal war and would expect at minimum Israel to provide it with missiles (because such an alliance would nullify a current source of missiles it very much uses which is Iran).
Perhaps. But once you start moving things around alliances can change also. My view is more general- see below bsky.app/profile/glen...
Not to mention that Saudi Arabia and other countries aren’t that happy with Iran either and they are very happy to let Israel do the dirty work without getting in trouble themselves (even if they nominally support Palestinians).
They're getting increasingly friendly to Iran lately actually. The only reason those countries are friendly to Israel in the first place is because it's the gateway & prerequisite to a friendly relationship with the US/EU. Another example where Israel's geopolitical value IS its US/EU relationship.
I am wondering if you make EU/US appeal greater than it is.
Why would you wonder that? Are you even saying something here?
Let’s meet again in 5 years and see how it turns out. Let’s hope people will be suffering less one way or another.