The 2014 election was devastating for Democrats and the party never really recovered in Senate elections. The partisan gravity started to take effect. 2020 was a miracle with the GA runoffs but even then the majority included MT, WV, and OH (all gone now)

And there will be surprises in 26. I don't think gop control is a foregone conclusion and i don't want the party thinking that and sending lambs to slaughter as candidates.

Senate races are increasingly nationalized now, so Democrats struggle to win in states where their presidential candidate couldn't also win. NC might prove an exception thanks to Cooper. But every state Biden won in 2020 only gets you to 50 seats (that still requires unseating Collins)

Seems like a totally reasonable task with the party realignment and no trump on the ballot

Maybe i should turn it on its head: When was the last time the dems had a "good" senate map?

In that sense, we agree. Dems have increasingly tough Senate maps because an increasing number of Senate seats are in "red" states. If you can't compete in FL, OH, IA, your options narrow.

2008?

That year was INSANE. Democrats flipped Alaska. (The sitting governor of Alaska was the VP candidate!)

Dems flipped Colorado (a state Bush had won in the past). Dems flipped MN, NH, NC, NM, OR, and VA.

The hatred for Bush was legendary, which makes it all the more galling how rehabilitated his public image has become. The hate was all deserved.

In another thread, I compare 2008 to 2020 and it stuns me to think that Trump is somehow more popular than Bush or that voters were more upset about the financial collapse than covid.

My guess on that is direct checks versus....well...whatever the dems did following 2008. There was a ton of money sloshed on the market but not to everyone. in 20, we all got straight cash homie. but also, I heard SO many times before the election "everything was fine until covid"...

I think it’s more that partisanship has hardened, and people are willing to forgive “their guy” for almost anything because the other party getting power is seen as genuinely apocalyptic. Something like the Epstein scandal would have gotten Bush chased out of Washington by an angry mob. Today…

That was also the sort of swing you’d expect though, after Dems routing in 2008.

Well, except for Alaska and NC, Dems held some key seats they flipped. 2014 was when some longstanding Dems in now solid GOP states lost their seats.

People talk about bad Senate maps for two different scenarios: 1) Dems have to defend very red incumbent seats as polarization has made ticket splitting less common. 2) Dems have to win states that are red to obtain advantage. 2026 is 2 and is easier, though Senate is a steep hill.

Yes, it will be very difficult. I am by no means locking it either way. Just that i have heard "tough senate map" every 2 years for decades (Change the map then, dems... But i digress)