They state R+11.7 in their commentary, so doesn’t seem so. My guess is small sample bias, but we don’t have raw numbers, just post-weight sample demos (and the data display is fucked up on that, percentage display that’s 2 OOM off, which was confusing at first).

They only glancingly mention the vast outlier in the 18-21 age range, which makes me think they know it’s a hinky result. These are undergrads conducting the poll, so moderate expectations accordingly.

but than why are all the cross tabs in the under 30s dem +10? the 22-29 is only +6

I don’t have it in front of me, but there is in one of the docs a footnote that the weighting is different or excluded on the “under 30” cohort, so possibly an apples to oranges or apples to fish comparison going on.

(The data presentation on this is kind of driving me nuts, it’s very unclear what’s going on.)

Lol that's That's some VERY different weighting

I'm still salty that the obviously horseshit polling methods from all last year turned out to be right It makes no sense!

That was like, they all threw dice and guessed and turned out to be right. This looks like saying 2+2=17.

thinking more about it, and i don't have a great memory or other past polls in front of me but a generic 1.6 dem ballot lead among all voters doesn't seem compatible with being +10 among whites under 30 does it?

First result I found said <30 whites were +4 for Trump in 24 lol

most plausible explanation

I still don't see how the math gets there, but there's no way it gets there without it.

Still doesn’t explain it. For another angle, how are men and women under 30yo 10% undecided, while 18-21 and 22-29 are 15% undecided? Those should be roughly the same, or at the very least overlapping ranges. Unless one grouping is unweighted raw results and the other is weighted??

I don't know. I just post here. Are you into curling? I used to have friends from North Dakota who were really into it. Seemed like a good time.

I am, it’s a flipping fantastic time! Difficult while still being accessible, and afterwards you hang out and drink with the other team! 🍻

Sports that are excuses for social drinking really are the best sports.