AUTHERS: “.. Companies got out of the habit of responding to government surveys in 2020 when the pandemic gave them more important things to do, and it’s proved habit-forming. .. so it’s not surprising that the numbers need revisions.” @johnauthers.bsky.social www.bloomberg.com/opinion/news...
Then go by the damn "how Americans FEEL" survey, which sank Biden/Harris, even when the economy WAS doing great, overall.
Were the June numbers initially reported in July fake too? Or just now?
Exactly. Revisions are a necessary part of the process.
Why does the government tax office not know how many folk are working in America? This is how it's done in the rest of the world.
I don't know how US compares to rest of world in this regard, but there are a lot of self employed, limited partners, etc that pay taxes quarterly vs every week
In Europe, even if you are self employed, you still have to pay basic National Insurance (towards your pension) on a monthly basis.
Quarterly here www.irs.gov/businesses/s...
So presumably those figures are accurate?
“maybe” 🙄
This can only mean that people that fill out surveys are more susceptible to Covid. Prove me wrong.
Hmm. What is the connection here? 🤔 what ever could connect there two time periods. Oh wait!! me thinks it’s orange, fat, cheats at golf and likes 12 year olds.
@carlquintanilla.bsky.social This chart shows response to the CPS, a survey of households, not response to the CES, a survey of employers. CES responses are mandatory; CPS responses are voluntary and have fallen with loss of trust in govt and fear that people could be targeted for deportation.
There is a similar reaction in the entertainment industry over the last couple years. Production companies have become more and more quiet, not wanting to admit they have fewer projects than they’ve had in the past.
Maybe he should be fired for sharpiegate
Interesting. 🧡 #ORANGEDOOSH
It's a slight acceleration of an existing trend. They took the excuse...
here's a weird idea of mine every employee pays FICA taxes monthly, unless under the table, or possibly gig You tabulate that,you get a good picture, how many paid this month, how many last month, =>delta Maybe naive of me, But calling companies is just BS cc @patientadvocacy.bsky.social
Of course the numbers needed revision- because they always need revision- cuz the numbers are never All In when the first estimate comes out- period final. Everyone who knows their ass from a hole in the ground knew that the numbers were almost certain to end up looking like they did, so WTF?
To put a finer point on it, the final numbers were not a surprise to anyone- that's important.
Not the pandemic.. it's the explosion of spam calls that broke everyone from answering their phones.
yeah, the trend is clearly consistent before and after the big dip at the start of the pandemic
The purpose of the BLS is to produce inaccurate, flawed reports. If Congress/ President wanted accurate reporting they would allow the BLS access to IRS employer tax withholding which is ongoing and monthly and Social Security records to eliminate double counting the employed.
It was always a terrible survey anyway. Massively prone to revision due to the birth / death model around turning points. The entire world ex the U.S. uses a household survey only and is all the better for it.
Are companies given any financial inventive to participate?? Maybe that should be deal - give $100 tax credit for each month of participation???
What a hilariously skewed chart. Why does the axis run from 65% to 95%? 0-100 would be ideal, but 0-95 would be acceptable.
If you want to blame anyone, blame Congress and the administration—you want them to do a good job, fund the agency, and give it the resources it needs to modernise the systems.
Oh and Global Extortion day in April didn't help.
✅️
Also been seeing that the US Govt is always late in its reports to #BLS and have seen a few reports that they have been reducing headcount under #DOGE so 1) more losses 2) even slower to report. Plus these count as still working @washingtonpost.com www.washingtonpost.com/politics/202... #Econsky
And g to hey had them prior too
You’re fired too
private industry has the data
The Current Population Survey, shown in the graph, is administered to households by the Census Bureau. I used to manage it in parts of the Midwest, and our response rates were in the high 90s. Way more refusals now from what I've heard, no one thinks their info will be kept private anymore.
There must be a better way to collect labor statistics than surveys.
US doesn’t need no stats! Trump can tell you whether it is up or down before his policies are even implemented!
Exactly the same thing has happened in the UK, the office for national statistics openly say the jobs numbers are not reliable due to response rates.
That goes a long way to explain the size of the revisions.
We over analyze everything in this country. I think sometimes it’s just a jobs program. Scrap all the ridiculous outdated surveys and do one survey of real people. 3 questions. Do you have a job, did you lose a job, did you spend more or less last month than you spent the month before.