Oh, a smart watch! Should have guessed
Earth Sciences 🌏 Mathematical Geoenergy (Wiley/AGU, 2019) 🌊 I think in reciprocal space https://GeoEnergyMath.com https://github.com/orgs/azimuth-project/discussions
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Oh, a smart watch! Should have guessed
It would actually empty the Colorado River near its source
Sure, Bluesky ain't for you.
That's difficult to pick just one out of thousands.
Proofs are for math
You hit the nail on the head
You mean vast reserves of low-quality, low-energy content oil-containing deposits such as in the Green River formation of Utah/Colorado? www.doi.gov/ocl/oil-shal....
Chris Wright was the CEO of a fracking support company. He must know that fracking for oil is on its last legs. All the major shale formations Bakken, Eagle Ford, Permian have flat-lined.
Do you have electrodes connected to your head? Those colors indicating when you're sleeping?
You just complained about people blocking you. What a hypocrite
You believe a congenital liar?
Doesn't change the fact that we have reached peak oil. Whatcha gonna do about it?
Doesn't change the fact that we have reached peak oil. Whatcha gonna do about it?
Doesn't change the fact that we have reached peak oil. Whatcha gonna do about it?
You have options. Go to the library. Buy the book. Go to peakoilbarrel.com which my coauthor runs.
I gave you a source and have never blocked anyone, here or on Twitter (@whut) where I've had an account since 2008. imagizer.imageshack.com/img924/7053/...
Simpler models can outperform deep learning at climate prediction This article in MIT News: "New research shows the natural variability in climate data can cause AI models to struggle at predicting local temperature and rainfall." ... "While deep learning has become increasingly popular for…
Peak shale oil in he USA is occurring as we speak. That was really a flash in the pan, a swift boom-bust cycle.
Peak crude oil occurred in 2018.
Hit peak crude oil in 2018.
a start pukpr.github.io/results/imag...
tinyurl.com/ClimateClowns www.realclimate.org/index.php/ar...
Shale will kill itself
wrong author? news.mit.edu/2025/simpler...
The issue is that ENSO has a 3 to 7 yr period so that statistical significance in predicting a pattern will take several decades. What absolutely needs to be done 1st is acknowledgement of cross-validation on these 100+ sites. That will guarantee that the model WILL NOT BE FORGOTTEN in the future
It's a principle thing. All of the breakthroughs in AI and pattern recognition have been via cross-validation. Stupid to waste time waiting for predictions to pan out over decades, while competitors march on. Not my problem that climate scientists are ignorant about validation techniques.
My YT comment on solving ENSO and QBO here www.youtube.com/watch?v=CbO2...
"and burning lots of electricity unnecessarilly halucinating along" not only LLMs, the fastest supercomputer in the world tries to solve climate (ie. variant of Navier-Stokes) problems while using the same power as a cruising Boeing 737 -- but still no progress in predicting an El Nino.
the Navier-Stokes problem and LLMs www.youtube.com/watch?v=CbO2...
The only blog that does ENSO right now is GeoEnergyMath.com
Should focus on all the hard problems in climate science understanding -- ENSO, AMO, what caused the warm spike in 2023/2024, etc. Good luck. I will join any discussion forum that you may want to start.
copilot.microsoft.com/shares/B8k5V... Motivation plus discovery
I have 100 other sea-level sites that I've fitted (of >100yr spans), with the vast majority showing promising cross-validation intervals, all with the same set of tidal factors, varying only in amplitude and phase. This is overwhelming evidence, much stronger than a predictive match.
astronomical forcing rules on a shorter time scale as well imageshack.com/a/mLK17/1
they are all saying La Nina. Monitor the feed bsky.app/profile/puki...
This works much better and for everything imageshack.com/a/mLK17/1
ta da
Always miss the obvious connection imageshack.com/a/mLK17/1
What's interesting about the MJO is that it trails the ENSO index known as SOI by ~21 days. So it's eventually a traveling wave spin-off of an ENSO standing wave. Someone at the NOAA ENSO blog created this cartoon:
This is how well the tidal model works on monthly mean sea level even with limited data -- port at Karachi, Pakistan Cross-validated interval is dashed. Access to 100 other sites with >100y spans. Need this duration for long-period tides
yup, peak oil is a natural antidote to increasing CO2
Soon all the cyclic climate indices will be modeled well enough to discriminate the trend from the natural variation. imageshack.com/a/mLK17/1
this is an article on misdirection, not about cracking a code but the writer's day-to-day life. www.5280.com/has-david-ro...
That's OK. Mentioning El Nino added your post to the Climate Cycles feed: bsky.app/profile/did:...
Ask GPT-5 about the possibility of ENSO (El Nino+La Nina) cycles being attributed to lunar and annual forces. Just a matter of time until a machine validates this approach. chatgpt.com/share/689716...
"because so many models struggle to get the correct rhythm of ENSO + El Niño is a big influence on extended spells of weak winds," indeed
Lunar cycles are related but act on a much shorter time scale. Verified by temporal cross-validation. imageshack.com/a/mLK17/1
Same with natural gas fracking, but much more area to extract with NG than the limited areas of oil
not quite -- El Nino arises along the equator not north Pacific
El Nino can trigger more extreme events. La Nina can trigger more extreme events. The Murray-Darling basin will routinely flood during La Nina.
Lunar cycles impact El Nino events deterministically. Lunar events can impact seismic activity stochastically -- which means it is difficult to use as a prediction tool. So EL Nino impacting seismic is stochastically (probabilistically) plausible.
El Nino will always enhance CO2 outgassing. Heated oceans will always enhance C02 outgassing.
It's a report on an endangerment finding that not once mentions peak oil, which is odd since the obvious chief author of the report -- Koonin -- was a former honcho in the US DOE. Fracking for oil is on its deathbed, very endangered !!! 🤣
ENSO, AMO, TNA all climate indices imageshack.com/a/mLK17/1
How could there be a drilling boom when the Bakken and Eagle Ford shale oil formations are past peak and the Permian basin is very near to it? It costs more and more when the returns start declining.
Tides are amazing! Hawaii is close to an amphidromic point - location of zero tidal amplitude - due to patterns of tidal wave interference associated with the Coriolis effect & the shape of the ocean basin. Really cool stuff if you’re an ocean nerd like us. 🤓🌊
Ocean nerds should note that tidal extremes can be modeled by nonlinear interactions of long period tidal cycles with an annual modulation. Especially apparent at larger amplitude cites such as Brest, France imageshack.com/a/mLK17/1
Growth ... Jevons Paradox
Probably searching for derecho. Someone decided to use derecho instead of high winds and tsunami for tidal waves
An awful book -- nothing on peak oil and oil depletion from a top person working in the Department of Energy. Instead Koonin focuses on the strawman of climate change.
Nearby oceans are moderating influences.
Perhaps teleconnections are overrated. Perhaps a common-mode mechanism such as tidal forcing provides a synchronizing causality. Consider all the indices that cross-validate. imageshack.com/a/mLK17/1
reposted at peakoilbarrel.com/short-term-e...
[2025-07-28] 📚 Updates in #AI4Cl (1) Interpretable Cross-Sphere Multiscale Deep Learning Predicts ENSO Skilfully Beyond 2 Years (2) Interpretable Cross-Sphere Multiscale Deep Learning Predicts ENSO Skilfully Beyond 2 Years 🔍 More at researchtrend.ai/communities/AI4Cl
PURDUE BAY???? 🤣🤣🤣
what exactly is "hidden" about this finding?
"NOAA's TAO array measurement is what makes ENSO prediction and associated weather & climate prediction possible." Not really. All that is required is a single measurement at say Darwin. That's the nature of a dipole signal such as ENSO -- all the other points follow
FRom a RealClimate discussion thread: "Likewise, the goal of climate science–whether modeling or storm chasing–is understanding. " www.realclimate.org/index.php/ar...
IOW, I am doing this because I think it is worthwhile, and that if someone else
In fact, my book Mathematical Geoenergy was drafted almost entirely from blog entries. Unless you have the capacity to do so, writing a book is not done in a single setting but in piecemeal segments, something akin to posting regular installments on a blog.
See what I wrote here: andthentheresphysics.wordpress.com/2023/10/23/c...
So now, with the advent of AI, it is fairly straightforward to get an LLM such as ChatGPT, DeepSeek, Gemini, Copilot, etc to regenerate an explanation that I have advanced on some blog -- either my own or elsewhere.
I see it as a public lab notebook. Long ago, around the time I started scientific blogging -- circa 2004 -- I realized the Internet never forgets, and that hammering away at ideas in the public view is good in the long run. At some level, a paper trail of advancement of understanding can be created.
yes ;)
"for combinations that do not appear that many times, the algorithm “backs off” to instead consider a combination of one shorter length. " Is this also known as lasso regularization?
"However, our background physics knowledge tells us that oscillatory systems are frequently described by sums of sines but very rarely nested sines, so it is intuitively reasonable that our prior should favour the former function."
Government funding subsidies a form of Ponzi when it leads to supporting an industry vital to maintaining an economy? After the market crash of 2008, Obama intended the $$ for green investments, but it was intercepted by fracking interests to stimulate the recovery.
It's a dipole, there can't be a permanent El Nino. It's like saying a magnet with only a north pole.
Fresh blood, fresh insight needed as the old ways of thinking evolve. Cross-validation applied to the data does not lie. (submiited to www.realclimate.org/index.php/ar...)
I’m suggesting that once everyone agrees on how to calculate the erratic tidal patterns it will become obvious that it is a common root cause. Conventional tidal theory is classical Fourier harmonics, but instead need to apply sideband spectrum analysis.
Paul Pukite (@whut) says Sea level changes in say the Atlantic ocean via ENSO have to be explained either by a teleconnection effect or by a common root cause. It comes down to what is most plausible, or at the very least by assigning proportional impacts. imageshack.com/a/mLK17/1
Scientific advancement is a form of capitalism that works. Otherwise, capitalism for human incentives is ultimately marred by game theory. Trying to find the best system is to allow the least gaming of outcomes.
Adopted socialism -- roads, infrastructure, utilities, water, etc
Trump has really screwed up USA science funding for a generation. I will push my research of El Nino as an international collaboration. Nothing that boomers such as this 87yo couch potato can do about it. imageshack.com/a/mLK17/1
All the climate indices modelled with cross validation intervals. PDO has some character of ENSO. imageshack.com/a/mLK17/1
The PDO is decomposed as an orthogonal time series from data, so it has an artificial character to it that may make it not as meaningful.
Also suggest applying what you have done to real-world unsolved problems, such as erratic climate indices bsky.app/profile/puki...
"It not only recovered a nonsensical law—it recovered different laws for different galaxies." Consider that there are infinitely more nonlinear possibilities than linear -- how to constrain the training to winnow that down?
24 models of various degrees of cross-validation imageshack.com/a/mLK17/1
I place all my money into tidal forces synchronizing the resultant signal profile, much like tidal forces control the signal profile of ocean tides. imageshack.com/a/mLK17/1
The only question is what causes the magnitude and sign in the strength of the "overturning" signal (I put quotes around overturning because its likely not the same process as fresh-water lake overturning but perhaps analogous).
Every climate index, from ENSO to obscure indices such as the PNA, will reveal this characteristic. It's also a known property of nonlinear fluid dynamics at all scales, capable of being reproduced in the lab -- see geoenergymath.com/2020/05/17/d....
Indeed! Happens once a year -- a metastable condition of the ocean thermocline. Signal processing of time-series clearly shows it as a mirror reflection about the 0,5/year value in the frequency spectrum.
Yes,did see peak oil mentioned in geology textbooks in that time frame of 1980s
All these climate index curves were fitted and cross-validated using multiple linear regression (MLR), each in under a second of compute time. No need for symbolic regression or dedicated rigs here imageshack.com/a/mLK17/1
