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Ar-Fredazôn

@thefred.bsky.social

created November 18, 2024

3,023 followers 352 following 9,222 posts

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Profile picture Ar-Fredazôn (@thefred.bsky.social) reply parent

A "popularist" candidate will be definition turn against you and your issues whenever David Shor and Matt Yglesias tell him to.

2/9/2025, 12:57:45 AM | 2 0 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Ar-Fredazôn (@thefred.bsky.social)

Ruin a movie by making it about Gary. Paths of Gary

2/9/2025, 12:46:42 AM | 9 0 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Ar-Fredazôn (@thefred.bsky.social)

In Switzerland, children are expected and taught to walk to kindergarten.

2/9/2025, 12:44:48 AM | 8 2 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Ar-Fredazôn (@thefred.bsky.social)

If Trump tries to occupy Boston, I presume his forces will be told that actually the wokes are all in Concord.

2/9/2025, 12:41:24 AM | 9 0 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Ar-Fredazôn (@thefred.bsky.social)

Do I have to guess the races of the child and the killer?

2/9/2025, 12:28:47 AM | 18 2 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Ar-Fredazôn (@thefred.bsky.social) reply parent

I don't actually think he's dying imminently, but I very much doubt he isn't dying.

2/9/2025, 12:26:53 AM | 8 0 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Ar-Fredazôn (@thefred.bsky.social) reply parent

His parents lived forever, but he's much worse than his parents at 79.

2/9/2025, 12:26:08 AM | 2 0 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Ar-Fredazôn (@thefred.bsky.social) reply parent

If he were juet an average American man aged 79, this contract would be about 2%.

2/9/2025, 12:14:54 AM | 2 1 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Ar-Fredazôn (@thefred.bsky.social) reply parent

The probability should slightly increase over his term, so call it ~65%. That sounds right to me. SSA actuarial tables would give a male his age about a 20% chance of dying by the end of 2028. All things being equal, the president should do better than the average American, so this is big.

2/9/2025, 12:12:54 AM | 3 0 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Ar-Fredazôn (@thefred.bsky.social)

A 9% chance over 4 months implies a 61% chance through 2028.

2/9/2025, 12:05:14 AM | 11 1 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Ar-Fredazôn (@thefred.bsky.social)

Donald Trump went to his golf course because that's what he thought "stroke recovery" meant.

1/9/2025, 10:58:22 PM | 26 6 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Ar-Fredazôn (@thefred.bsky.social)

People today may complain about crime, but they don't act like crime is a problem. They did in the 70s through early 90s, when ceime dominated pop culture, and people really did personally worry about crime every day.

1/9/2025, 9:38:03 PM | 47 5 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Ar-Fredazôn (@thefred.bsky.social) reply parent

That's why it's suicide for Ds to help them avoid defaulting on the debt or funding the government. Voters have never experienced a true R trifecta.

1/9/2025, 9:33:58 PM | 14 0 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Crystal Fincher (@finchfrii.bsky.social) reposted

This story just got even worse: Firefighters question leaders’ role in Washington immigration raid Wildfire veterans believe top officials on the fire sent their crews into an ambush

1/9/2025, 6:54:19 PM | 247 145 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Ar-Fredazôn (@thefred.bsky.social) reply parent

The golden honmoon was the FALSE honmoon. The RAINBOW honmoon was the TRUE honmoon.

1/9/2025, 9:08:46 PM | 2 0 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Ar-Fredazôn (@thefred.bsky.social)

We settled the question of impoundment in 1649.

1/9/2025, 8:13:52 PM | 27 6 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Ar-Fredazôn (@thefred.bsky.social)

Is there any error in understanding Democratic party coalition politics that cannot be explained by people not knowing, or denying, that (1) the base is middle-aged, middle-class Black people and (2) they're not that socially liberal?

1/9/2025, 8:08:15 PM | 13 1 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Ar-Fredazôn (@thefred.bsky.social) reply parent

Tips are not for skilled trades and tips are not for the self-employed. We all know better.

1/9/2025, 6:19:37 PM | 11 4 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Ar-Fredazôn (@thefred.bsky.social)

None of these people were tipped, and this is going to make home ownership an ever more noxious proposition, subject to continual shakedowns.

1/9/2025, 6:13:41 PM | 19 7 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Ar-Fredazôn (@thefred.bsky.social)

τῷ κρατίστῳ

1/9/2025, 12:47:31 PM | 8 2 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Ar-Fredazôn (@thefred.bsky.social) reply parent

Doesn't count without video.

1/9/2025, 2:41:54 AM | 22 0 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Ar-Fredazôn (@thefred.bsky.social) reply parent

And they're lying about it.

1/9/2025, 2:37:44 AM | 28 2 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Ar-Fredazôn (@thefred.bsky.social)

The biggest news story in the news right now is that the president of the United States hasn't made a public appearance or spoken to the protective pool in four days and the White House is actively lying about his activities, yet no news organization is covering it.

1/9/2025, 2:34:59 AM | 1288 374 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Ar-Fredazôn (@thefred.bsky.social) reply parent

It's easy enough to dress grandpa leonid in his golf pajamas while they wheel him off to recuperate from his stroke at his virginia dacha.

1/9/2025, 2:26:55 AM | 64 8 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Ar-Fredazôn (@thefred.bsky.social)

Did anyone see him actually playing golf today, or just wearing golf clothes?

1/9/2025, 2:22:15 AM | 120 14 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Coach Gowron (@coachgowron.com) reposted

If hopelessness has made a home in your heart, it cannot be dislodged easily or all at once. Chip away at it with small victories, moments of hope and defiance. It is not easy and it will take time and effort, but strive to make it an uncomfortable home, a place where despair is no longer welcome.

30/8/2025, 10:53:40 PM | 514 194 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Ar-Fredazôn (@thefred.bsky.social)

I wouldn't call it a party.

31/8/2025, 10:55:43 AM | 18 1 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Ar-Fredazôn (@thefred.bsky.social)

The next president had better dump Ashli Babbitt in the ocean and put a lien on her parents' house for the cost.

30/8/2025, 11:54:11 PM | 187 30 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Ar-Fredazôn (@thefred.bsky.social) reply parent

Depends if it's lost through litigation, criminal enforcement, or [redacted] rather than bad investments.

30/8/2025, 11:50:25 PM | 4 0 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Ar-Fredazôn (@thefred.bsky.social) reply parent

And very obviously everyone needs to presume bad faith by Pulte, because everyone involved admits it.

30/8/2025, 11:43:54 PM | 15 2 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Ar-Fredazôn (@thefred.bsky.social)

If we presume bad faith by Pulte, this is because the applications are clean or the agreements have riders, because if there were anything incriminating in them, he would have told us. That none of this could even get past a grand jury further shows the pretextual purpose.

30/8/2025, 11:41:10 PM | 37 16 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Ar-Fredazôn (@thefred.bsky.social) reply parent

"Department of Special Teams"

30/8/2025, 10:46:25 PM | 8 0 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Ar-Fredazôn (@thefred.bsky.social)

Given that Bill Pulte is a criminal and has not substantiated his allegations, I would simply not assume that any of what he claims is even superficially true.

30/8/2025, 10:18:53 PM | 40 9 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Ar-Fredazôn (@thefred.bsky.social) reply parent

"Investment property" vs "primary residence" is a bigger difference than secondary residence or vacation home vs primary residence, which can be a philosophical question, especially, say, during the COVID-19 emergency.

30/8/2025, 10:17:05 PM | 8 0 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Ar-Fredazôn (@thefred.bsky.social) reply parent

Do we know if she needed mortgage insurance?

30/8/2025, 10:13:50 PM | 1 0 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Ar-Fredazôn (@thefred.bsky.social) reply parent

I'm not sure second homes even get higher rates than primaries as a rule. Don't think people appreciate how none of this matters to the underwriter with sufficient debt coverage and 20%+ down.

30/8/2025, 10:08:04 PM | 37 2 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Ar-Fredazôn (@thefred.bsky.social)

Nobody wants to be against the next printing press, and anyone who knows about the centuries of witch hunts and wars of religion that followed knows they would be called crazy to express those kinds of concerns.

30/8/2025, 10:01:12 PM | 14 1 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Ar-Fredazôn (@thefred.bsky.social) reply parent

It's probably very difficult to prove intent, and I'd bet good money that no one has ever been prosecuted for this without either defaulting or being charged with other crimes.

30/8/2025, 9:40:03 PM | 22 1 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Ar-Fredazôn (@thefred.bsky.social)

Stalin's solution to the tyranny of the countryside is well known.

30/8/2025, 9:01:10 PM | 19 2 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Ar-Fredazôn (@thefred.bsky.social) reply parent

There's a reason it never occurred to Bezos to fire her or to her to quit.

30/8/2025, 8:05:24 PM | 61 3 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Ar-Fredazôn (@thefred.bsky.social)

Imagine taking sloppy seconds from Jacob Wohl.

30/8/2025, 7:58:45 PM | 8 1 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Ar-Fredazôn (@thefred.bsky.social) reply parent

Fine, fine. Presidential jizzmop it is.

30/8/2025, 7:56:33 PM | 17 0 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Ar-Fredazôn (@thefred.bsky.social)

That he's spent all his time obsessed with this yet seems not to be aware of anything at the CDC suggests his very limited capacity is being very carefully managed by his eunuchs and concubine.

30/8/2025, 7:37:19 PM | 159 27 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Ar-Fredazôn (@thefred.bsky.social)

Remember when Trump rawdogged a colonoscopy because he was afraid Pence would coup him in a 45-minute window?

30/8/2025, 7:29:58 PM | 23 3 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Ar-Fredazôn (@thefred.bsky.social)

Just noticed that Rufo looks more and more like Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.

30/8/2025, 6:08:45 PM | 26 4 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Ar-Fredazôn (@thefred.bsky.social) reply parent

100 of them could end this in an hour.

30/8/2025, 2:42:39 PM | 3 0 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Ar-Fredazôn (@thefred.bsky.social)

Weird that whoever this is can get dressed for golf but can't say who runs the CDC..

30/8/2025, 1:06:48 PM | 37 10 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Ar-Fredazôn (@thefred.bsky.social) reply parent

Imagine the "White House" under Biden purporting to fire Senate-confirmed nominees by unsigned staff memo when the president hadn't been seen in days.

30/8/2025, 12:14:31 PM | 124 14 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Ar-Fredazôn (@thefred.bsky.social)

If this happened in 2021, the reporters would be camped out in front of the White House for 24/7 coverage of the president likely being incapacitated or dead and a palace coup having occurred.

30/8/2025, 12:11:54 PM | 279 36 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Ar-Fredazôn (@thefred.bsky.social) reply parent

30/8/2025, 12:02:01 PM | 5 0 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Ar-Fredazôn (@thefred.bsky.social) reply parent

youtu.be/Xkddykjk_wk

30/8/2025, 11:34:03 AM | 3 0 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Ar-Fredazôn (@thefred.bsky.social) reply parent

youtu.be/lsHcx9JWswE

30/8/2025, 11:27:25 AM | 5 1 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Ar-Fredazôn (@thefred.bsky.social)

The most important question is probably whether the state has sovereign immunity against lawsuits.

30/8/2025, 11:24:12 AM | 4 1 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Ar-Fredazôn (@thefred.bsky.social) reply parent

He really is the luckiest person who ever lived.

30/8/2025, 11:22:24 AM | 8 0 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Ar-Fredazôn (@thefred.bsky.social) reply parent

Would have been Harris over Vance by 4 in November but for 3 inches.

30/8/2025, 11:20:27 AM | 11 0 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Ar-Fredazôn (@thefred.bsky.social) reply parent

youtu.be/gxnvxtYfsd4

30/8/2025, 11:18:43 AM | 9 1 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Ar-Fredazôn (@thefred.bsky.social) reply parent

Too many clauses in these sentences.

30/8/2025, 11:14:22 AM | 6 0 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Ar-Fredazôn (@thefred.bsky.social) reply parent

Bruce Springsteen Nebraska
30/8/2025, 11:13:08 AM | 2 0 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Ar-Fredazôn (@thefred.bsky.social) reply parent

30/8/2025, 11:08:21 AM | 4 0 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Ar-Fredazôn (@thefred.bsky.social) reply parent

Springfield elementary school orchestra firing cannons
30/8/2025, 11:01:00 AM | 7 1 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Ar-Fredazôn (@thefred.bsky.social)

What's your playlist for when it happens, whenever it happens?

30/8/2025, 10:56:11 AM | 28 4 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Ar-Fredazôn (@thefred.bsky.social)

It's probably a phlebectomy under local anesthesia

30/8/2025, 9:53:11 AM | 13 0 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Ar-Fredazôn (@thefred.bsky.social) reply parent

He didn't even post on TS about this one.

30/8/2025, 9:41:48 AM | 8 0 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Ar-Fredazôn (@thefred.bsky.social)

Has there been any presidential statement on the CDC?

29/8/2025, 11:58:42 PM | 11 0 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Ar-Fredazôn (@thefred.bsky.social) reply parent

What is this, 1689?

29/8/2025, 10:21:02 PM | 10 0 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Ar-Fredazôn (@thefred.bsky.social) reply parent

Is any of this even admissible?

29/8/2025, 7:10:09 PM | 16 1 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Ar-Fredazôn (@thefred.bsky.social) reply parent

Nobody has explained how any of this is legal, so I think it's premature to presume there is no statutory violation.

29/8/2025, 6:57:22 PM | 0 0 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Ar-Fredazôn (@thefred.bsky.social) reply parent

I get why Cook doesn't want to demand discovery immediately, but someone else should.

29/8/2025, 6:53:45 PM | 2 0 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Ar-Fredazôn (@thefred.bsky.social) reply parent

We should melt and recast the bronze statues as bulls.

29/8/2025, 6:49:16 PM | 5 1 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Ar-Fredazôn (@thefred.bsky.social) reply parent

Someone better file a class action suit fast to figure out how Donald Trump is stealing the bank records of thousands of people to violate their civil rights under color of law.

29/8/2025, 6:44:54 PM | 38 5 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Ar-Fredazôn (@thefred.bsky.social)

I.e. a massive criminal conspiracy to steal personal financial information for vindictive prosecutions.

29/8/2025, 6:40:07 PM | 143 49 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Ar-Fredazôn (@thefred.bsky.social)

The shutdown is the only weapon the Democrats have, so they are morally obligated to use it.

29/8/2025, 5:57:02 PM | 32 9 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Ar-Fredazôn (@thefred.bsky.social)

Next president rescinds all protection for Republicans on 1/20/2029.

29/8/2025, 1:33:02 PM | 49 8 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Ar-Fredazôn (@thefred.bsky.social) reply parent

I've never imagined it could make sense without providing all the labor directly.

29/8/2025, 12:51:49 PM | 6 0 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Ar-Fredazôn (@thefred.bsky.social) reply parent

New restaurants in my experience have this problem, where they haven't yet figured out portion or fixed menu sizes, and this has resulted in hilarious amounts of food served.

29/8/2025, 12:50:35 PM | 2 1 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Ar-Fredazôn (@thefred.bsky.social) reply parent

I would be. You would be. So presumably yes.

29/8/2025, 12:36:03 PM | 3 0 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Ar-Fredazôn (@thefred.bsky.social) reply parent

y'all need to get your minds out of the gutter youtu.be/OztIngK9s_I?...

28/8/2025, 11:38:24 PM | 3 0 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Ar-Fredazôn (@thefred.bsky.social) reply parent

"push Trump out" like in stage 2 of the underpants gnome business plan

28/8/2025, 11:34:21 PM | 3 0 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Ar-Fredazôn (@thefred.bsky.social) reply parent

have you been beating the drum slowly

28/8/2025, 11:30:02 PM | 7 0 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Ar-Fredazôn (@thefred.bsky.social) reply parent

I don't think so. Tariffs are the one topic reserved by the throne. If they are implemented by others, it is true believers like Navarro.

28/8/2025, 11:11:51 PM | 8 0 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Ar-Fredazôn (@thefred.bsky.social) reply parent

He may not be cogent enough to understand the de minimis issue, and the palace is almost fully in the hands of scheming eunuchs, anyway.

28/8/2025, 11:05:28 PM | 21 1 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Ar-Fredazôn (@thefred.bsky.social) reply parent

I'm not saying he is dying, just that he looks and sounds like he's dying and his court acts like he's dying. bsky.app/profile/mero...

28/8/2025, 10:38:14 PM | 61 4 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Ar-Fredazôn (@thefred.bsky.social)

Massinissa in the saddle at 90 he is not. We must thank Providence he is not attempting to consolidate authoritarianism at 44, like Salazar.

28/8/2025, 10:35:16 PM | 13 1 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Ar-Fredazôn (@thefred.bsky.social)

I've been saying all along that both of them aren't going to survive till 2029.

28/8/2025, 10:27:35 PM | 14 2 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Ar-Fredazôn (@thefred.bsky.social) reply parent

Biden looked and sounded old. Trump looks and sounds dying.

28/8/2025, 10:23:06 PM | 133 18 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Ar-Fredazôn (@thefred.bsky.social)

Joe Biden never looked as bad as Donald Trump does right now, nor did anyone in the administration or the political press actually treat Biden the way they are treating Trump right now (dying). That they whined endlessly about the one and have been silent on the other despite this proves the point.

28/8/2025, 10:21:55 PM | 327 66 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Tony Yates (@t0nyyates.bsky.social) reposted

At least this clarifies that the attempt to sack Lisa Cook was not for 'cause'.

28/8/2025, 10:04:36 PM | 378 120 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Ar-Fredazôn (@thefred.bsky.social)

Bad year to be a film camera collector.

28/8/2025, 9:34:26 PM | 5 0 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Ar-Fredazôn (@thefred.bsky.social) reply parent

What will the age of consent be on their oil rig kingdoms?

28/8/2025, 9:28:02 PM | 2 0 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Ar-Fredazôn (@thefred.bsky.social)

We really have no idea whether the Qing China courtier Heshen stole from the fisc under the Qianlong emperor, even though he was accused of converting something like a decade of imperial revenue and the court kept extensive records.

28/8/2025, 9:13:04 PM | 8 1 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Ar-Fredazôn (@thefred.bsky.social) reply parent

If they can't even produce a signed letter firing Monarez, we should presume the president is unable to discharge the powers and duties kf his office even at the most autonomic level.

28/8/2025, 9:07:49 PM | 20 6 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Ar-Fredazôn (@thefred.bsky.social)

Once again, "the White House" is a building and does not select anything or otherwise do anything animate. Who gave this order, and has the president even fired Monarez?

28/8/2025, 9:04:05 PM | 124 36 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Ar-Fredazôn (@thefred.bsky.social) reposted

Pop-up authoritarianism.

28/8/2025, 1:55:06 AM | 48 10 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Ar-Fredazôn (@thefred.bsky.social) reply parent

Pop-up authoritarianism and cargo cult authoritarianism? bsky.app/profile/jame...

28/8/2025, 9:02:27 PM | 4 0 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Ar-Fredazôn (@thefred.bsky.social)

The C in WHCA sure doesn't stand for "correspondents" any more.

28/8/2025, 6:07:05 PM | 26 5 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Chris Geidner (@chrisgeidner.bsky.social) reposted

Now on the docket: Lisa Cook's lawsuit and TRO motion challenging Trump's effort to fire her from the Fed board of governors. The case has been assigned to Judge Jia Cobb. Complaint: storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.us... TRO memo: storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.us...

UNITED STATES DISTRICT COURT FOR THE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA LISA D. COOK, in her official capacity as a member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System and her personal capacity, Constitution Ave NW &, 20th St NW, Washington, DC 20551. Plaintiff, Civil Action No. 25-2903 EMERGENCY HEARING RESPECTFULLY REQUESTED DONALD J. TRUMP, in his official capacity as President of the United States, 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue, NW, Washington, DC 20500, BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM, both collectively and in their individual official capacities, Constitution Ave NW &, 20th St NW, Washington, DC 20551, JEROME H. POWELL,' in his official capacity as Chair of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Constitution Ave NW &, 20th St NW, Washington, DC 20551. Defendants.
28/8/2025, 3:03:54 PM | 226 64 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Ar-Fredazôn (@thefred.bsky.social)

Folks, let's move on.

image
28/8/2025, 3:02:04 PM | 7 0 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Ar-Fredazôn (@thefred.bsky.social)

don't tell the boss who awards the nobel peace prize

28/8/2025, 2:57:58 PM | 17 3 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Ar-Fredazôn (@thefred.bsky.social) reply parent

The one country with both fuck-you money and no parasitic royalty stealing half of it.

28/8/2025, 2:57:27 PM | 74 3 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Ar-Fredazôn (@thefred.bsky.social)

The one incontrovertible meta-observation from polls that we have about Democrats and Republicans is that some Democrats lie sometimes and nearly all Republicans lie all the time.

28/8/2025, 2:48:17 PM | 56 9 | View on Bluesky | view