Ar-Fredazôn (@thefred.bsky.social) reply parent
A "popularist" candidate will be definition turn against you and your issues whenever David Shor and Matt Yglesias tell him to.
Ar-Fredazôn (@thefred.bsky.social) reply parent
A "popularist" candidate will be definition turn against you and your issues whenever David Shor and Matt Yglesias tell him to.
Ar-Fredazôn (@thefred.bsky.social)
Ruin a movie by making it about Gary. Paths of Gary
Ar-Fredazôn (@thefred.bsky.social)
In Switzerland, children are expected and taught to walk to kindergarten.
Ar-Fredazôn (@thefred.bsky.social)
If Trump tries to occupy Boston, I presume his forces will be told that actually the wokes are all in Concord.
Ar-Fredazôn (@thefred.bsky.social)
Do I have to guess the races of the child and the killer?
Ar-Fredazôn (@thefred.bsky.social) reply parent
I don't actually think he's dying imminently, but I very much doubt he isn't dying.
Ar-Fredazôn (@thefred.bsky.social) reply parent
His parents lived forever, but he's much worse than his parents at 79.
Ar-Fredazôn (@thefred.bsky.social) reply parent
If he were juet an average American man aged 79, this contract would be about 2%.
Ar-Fredazôn (@thefred.bsky.social) reply parent
The probability should slightly increase over his term, so call it ~65%. That sounds right to me. SSA actuarial tables would give a male his age about a 20% chance of dying by the end of 2028. All things being equal, the president should do better than the average American, so this is big.
Ar-Fredazôn (@thefred.bsky.social)
A 9% chance over 4 months implies a 61% chance through 2028.
Ar-Fredazôn (@thefred.bsky.social)
Donald Trump went to his golf course because that's what he thought "stroke recovery" meant.
Ar-Fredazôn (@thefred.bsky.social)
People today may complain about crime, but they don't act like crime is a problem. They did in the 70s through early 90s, when ceime dominated pop culture, and people really did personally worry about crime every day.
Ar-Fredazôn (@thefred.bsky.social) reply parent
That's why it's suicide for Ds to help them avoid defaulting on the debt or funding the government. Voters have never experienced a true R trifecta.
Crystal Fincher (@finchfrii.bsky.social) reposted
This story just got even worse: Firefighters question leaders’ role in Washington immigration raid Wildfire veterans believe top officials on the fire sent their crews into an ambush
Ar-Fredazôn (@thefred.bsky.social) reply parent
The golden honmoon was the FALSE honmoon. The RAINBOW honmoon was the TRUE honmoon.
Ar-Fredazôn (@thefred.bsky.social)
We settled the question of impoundment in 1649.
Ar-Fredazôn (@thefred.bsky.social)
Is there any error in understanding Democratic party coalition politics that cannot be explained by people not knowing, or denying, that (1) the base is middle-aged, middle-class Black people and (2) they're not that socially liberal?
Ar-Fredazôn (@thefred.bsky.social) reply parent
Tips are not for skilled trades and tips are not for the self-employed. We all know better.
Ar-Fredazôn (@thefred.bsky.social)
None of these people were tipped, and this is going to make home ownership an ever more noxious proposition, subject to continual shakedowns.
Ar-Fredazôn (@thefred.bsky.social)
τῷ κρατίστῳ
Ar-Fredazôn (@thefred.bsky.social) reply parent
Doesn't count without video.
Ar-Fredazôn (@thefred.bsky.social) reply parent
And they're lying about it.
Ar-Fredazôn (@thefred.bsky.social)
The biggest news story in the news right now is that the president of the United States hasn't made a public appearance or spoken to the protective pool in four days and the White House is actively lying about his activities, yet no news organization is covering it.
Ar-Fredazôn (@thefred.bsky.social) reply parent
It's easy enough to dress grandpa leonid in his golf pajamas while they wheel him off to recuperate from his stroke at his virginia dacha.
Ar-Fredazôn (@thefred.bsky.social)
Did anyone see him actually playing golf today, or just wearing golf clothes?
Coach Gowron (@coachgowron.com) reposted
If hopelessness has made a home in your heart, it cannot be dislodged easily or all at once. Chip away at it with small victories, moments of hope and defiance. It is not easy and it will take time and effort, but strive to make it an uncomfortable home, a place where despair is no longer welcome.
Ar-Fredazôn (@thefred.bsky.social)
I wouldn't call it a party.
Ar-Fredazôn (@thefred.bsky.social)
The next president had better dump Ashli Babbitt in the ocean and put a lien on her parents' house for the cost.
Ar-Fredazôn (@thefred.bsky.social) reply parent
Depends if it's lost through litigation, criminal enforcement, or [redacted] rather than bad investments.
Ar-Fredazôn (@thefred.bsky.social) reply parent
And very obviously everyone needs to presume bad faith by Pulte, because everyone involved admits it.
Ar-Fredazôn (@thefred.bsky.social)
If we presume bad faith by Pulte, this is because the applications are clean or the agreements have riders, because if there were anything incriminating in them, he would have told us. That none of this could even get past a grand jury further shows the pretextual purpose.
Ar-Fredazôn (@thefred.bsky.social) reply parent
"Department of Special Teams"
Ar-Fredazôn (@thefred.bsky.social)
Given that Bill Pulte is a criminal and has not substantiated his allegations, I would simply not assume that any of what he claims is even superficially true.
Ar-Fredazôn (@thefred.bsky.social) reply parent
"Investment property" vs "primary residence" is a bigger difference than secondary residence or vacation home vs primary residence, which can be a philosophical question, especially, say, during the COVID-19 emergency.
Ar-Fredazôn (@thefred.bsky.social) reply parent
Do we know if she needed mortgage insurance?
Ar-Fredazôn (@thefred.bsky.social) reply parent
I'm not sure second homes even get higher rates than primaries as a rule. Don't think people appreciate how none of this matters to the underwriter with sufficient debt coverage and 20%+ down.
Ar-Fredazôn (@thefred.bsky.social)
Nobody wants to be against the next printing press, and anyone who knows about the centuries of witch hunts and wars of religion that followed knows they would be called crazy to express those kinds of concerns.
Ar-Fredazôn (@thefred.bsky.social) reply parent
It's probably very difficult to prove intent, and I'd bet good money that no one has ever been prosecuted for this without either defaulting or being charged with other crimes.
Ar-Fredazôn (@thefred.bsky.social)
Stalin's solution to the tyranny of the countryside is well known.
Ar-Fredazôn (@thefred.bsky.social) reply parent
There's a reason it never occurred to Bezos to fire her or to her to quit.
Ar-Fredazôn (@thefred.bsky.social)
Imagine taking sloppy seconds from Jacob Wohl.
Ar-Fredazôn (@thefred.bsky.social) reply parent
Fine, fine. Presidential jizzmop it is.
Ar-Fredazôn (@thefred.bsky.social)
That he's spent all his time obsessed with this yet seems not to be aware of anything at the CDC suggests his very limited capacity is being very carefully managed by his eunuchs and concubine.
Ar-Fredazôn (@thefred.bsky.social)
Remember when Trump rawdogged a colonoscopy because he was afraid Pence would coup him in a 45-minute window?
Ar-Fredazôn (@thefred.bsky.social)
Just noticed that Rufo looks more and more like Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.
Ar-Fredazôn (@thefred.bsky.social) reply parent
100 of them could end this in an hour.
Ar-Fredazôn (@thefred.bsky.social)
Weird that whoever this is can get dressed for golf but can't say who runs the CDC..
Ar-Fredazôn (@thefred.bsky.social) reply parent
Imagine the "White House" under Biden purporting to fire Senate-confirmed nominees by unsigned staff memo when the president hadn't been seen in days.
Ar-Fredazôn (@thefred.bsky.social)
If this happened in 2021, the reporters would be camped out in front of the White House for 24/7 coverage of the president likely being incapacitated or dead and a palace coup having occurred.
Ar-Fredazôn (@thefred.bsky.social) reply parent
Ar-Fredazôn (@thefred.bsky.social) reply parent
youtu.be/Xkddykjk_wk
Ar-Fredazôn (@thefred.bsky.social) reply parent
youtu.be/lsHcx9JWswE
Ar-Fredazôn (@thefred.bsky.social)
The most important question is probably whether the state has sovereign immunity against lawsuits.
Ar-Fredazôn (@thefred.bsky.social) reply parent
He really is the luckiest person who ever lived.
Ar-Fredazôn (@thefred.bsky.social) reply parent
Would have been Harris over Vance by 4 in November but for 3 inches.
Ar-Fredazôn (@thefred.bsky.social) reply parent
youtu.be/gxnvxtYfsd4
Ar-Fredazôn (@thefred.bsky.social) reply parent
Too many clauses in these sentences.
Ar-Fredazôn (@thefred.bsky.social) reply parent
Ar-Fredazôn (@thefred.bsky.social) reply parent
Ar-Fredazôn (@thefred.bsky.social) reply parent
Ar-Fredazôn (@thefred.bsky.social)
What's your playlist for when it happens, whenever it happens?
Ar-Fredazôn (@thefred.bsky.social)
It's probably a phlebectomy under local anesthesia
Ar-Fredazôn (@thefred.bsky.social) reply parent
He didn't even post on TS about this one.
Ar-Fredazôn (@thefred.bsky.social)
Has there been any presidential statement on the CDC?
Ar-Fredazôn (@thefred.bsky.social) reply parent
What is this, 1689?
Ar-Fredazôn (@thefred.bsky.social) reply parent
Is any of this even admissible?
Ar-Fredazôn (@thefred.bsky.social) reply parent
Nobody has explained how any of this is legal, so I think it's premature to presume there is no statutory violation.
Ar-Fredazôn (@thefred.bsky.social) reply parent
I get why Cook doesn't want to demand discovery immediately, but someone else should.
Ar-Fredazôn (@thefred.bsky.social) reply parent
We should melt and recast the bronze statues as bulls.
Ar-Fredazôn (@thefred.bsky.social) reply parent
Someone better file a class action suit fast to figure out how Donald Trump is stealing the bank records of thousands of people to violate their civil rights under color of law.
Ar-Fredazôn (@thefred.bsky.social)
I.e. a massive criminal conspiracy to steal personal financial information for vindictive prosecutions.
Ar-Fredazôn (@thefred.bsky.social)
The shutdown is the only weapon the Democrats have, so they are morally obligated to use it.
Ar-Fredazôn (@thefred.bsky.social)
Next president rescinds all protection for Republicans on 1/20/2029.
Ar-Fredazôn (@thefred.bsky.social) reply parent
I've never imagined it could make sense without providing all the labor directly.
Ar-Fredazôn (@thefred.bsky.social) reply parent
New restaurants in my experience have this problem, where they haven't yet figured out portion or fixed menu sizes, and this has resulted in hilarious amounts of food served.
Ar-Fredazôn (@thefred.bsky.social) reply parent
I would be. You would be. So presumably yes.
Ar-Fredazôn (@thefred.bsky.social) reply parent
y'all need to get your minds out of the gutter youtu.be/OztIngK9s_I?...
Ar-Fredazôn (@thefred.bsky.social) reply parent
"push Trump out" like in stage 2 of the underpants gnome business plan
Ar-Fredazôn (@thefred.bsky.social) reply parent
have you been beating the drum slowly
Ar-Fredazôn (@thefred.bsky.social) reply parent
I don't think so. Tariffs are the one topic reserved by the throne. If they are implemented by others, it is true believers like Navarro.
Ar-Fredazôn (@thefred.bsky.social) reply parent
He may not be cogent enough to understand the de minimis issue, and the palace is almost fully in the hands of scheming eunuchs, anyway.
Ar-Fredazôn (@thefred.bsky.social) reply parent
I'm not saying he is dying, just that he looks and sounds like he's dying and his court acts like he's dying. bsky.app/profile/mero...
Ar-Fredazôn (@thefred.bsky.social)
Massinissa in the saddle at 90 he is not. We must thank Providence he is not attempting to consolidate authoritarianism at 44, like Salazar.
Ar-Fredazôn (@thefred.bsky.social)
I've been saying all along that both of them aren't going to survive till 2029.
Ar-Fredazôn (@thefred.bsky.social) reply parent
Biden looked and sounded old. Trump looks and sounds dying.
Ar-Fredazôn (@thefred.bsky.social)
Joe Biden never looked as bad as Donald Trump does right now, nor did anyone in the administration or the political press actually treat Biden the way they are treating Trump right now (dying). That they whined endlessly about the one and have been silent on the other despite this proves the point.
Tony Yates (@t0nyyates.bsky.social) reposted
At least this clarifies that the attempt to sack Lisa Cook was not for 'cause'.
Ar-Fredazôn (@thefred.bsky.social)
Bad year to be a film camera collector.
Ar-Fredazôn (@thefred.bsky.social) reply parent
What will the age of consent be on their oil rig kingdoms?
Ar-Fredazôn (@thefred.bsky.social)
We really have no idea whether the Qing China courtier Heshen stole from the fisc under the Qianlong emperor, even though he was accused of converting something like a decade of imperial revenue and the court kept extensive records.
Ar-Fredazôn (@thefred.bsky.social) reply parent
If they can't even produce a signed letter firing Monarez, we should presume the president is unable to discharge the powers and duties kf his office even at the most autonomic level.
Ar-Fredazôn (@thefred.bsky.social)
Once again, "the White House" is a building and does not select anything or otherwise do anything animate. Who gave this order, and has the president even fired Monarez?
Ar-Fredazôn (@thefred.bsky.social) reposted
Pop-up authoritarianism.
Ar-Fredazôn (@thefred.bsky.social) reply parent
Pop-up authoritarianism and cargo cult authoritarianism? bsky.app/profile/jame...
Ar-Fredazôn (@thefred.bsky.social)
The C in WHCA sure doesn't stand for "correspondents" any more.
Chris Geidner (@chrisgeidner.bsky.social) reposted
Now on the docket: Lisa Cook's lawsuit and TRO motion challenging Trump's effort to fire her from the Fed board of governors. The case has been assigned to Judge Jia Cobb. Complaint: storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.us... TRO memo: storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.us...
Ar-Fredazôn (@thefred.bsky.social)
don't tell the boss who awards the nobel peace prize
Ar-Fredazôn (@thefred.bsky.social) reply parent
The one country with both fuck-you money and no parasitic royalty stealing half of it.
Ar-Fredazôn (@thefred.bsky.social)
The one incontrovertible meta-observation from polls that we have about Democrats and Republicans is that some Democrats lie sometimes and nearly all Republicans lie all the time.