“What we’re seeing is an unprecedented attempt to silence disfavored speech by the government,” said Brendan Nyhan, a political scientist at Dartmouth College. “Donald Trump is trying to dictate what Americans can say.” https://to.pbs.org/46AYg7U
Professor @au-spa.bsky.social Pol Violence | Pol Psychology New Book: “NO OPTION BUT SABOTAGE” https://global.oup.com/academic/product/no-option-but-sabotage-9780197796849 1st Book: "Nasty Politics" https://www.zeitzoff.com/book-project.html
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“What we’re seeing is an unprecedented attempt to silence disfavored speech by the government,” said Brendan Nyhan, a political scientist at Dartmouth College. “Donald Trump is trying to dictate what Americans can say.” https://to.pbs.org/46AYg7U
Watching too—Redford, Akroyd, Phoenix, Strathairn, McDonnell, Kingsley, and Earl Jones. The cast is 🔥
Two things to add to this: 1) I am much more concerned with party elites and leaders encouraging and stoking violence than shifts in the public from vaguely worded questions. 2) These public shifts in support for violence are almost always downstream of elite rhetoric and narratives.
These estimates of public support for violence (from www.nytimes.com/2025/09/16/o...) are inflated - *much* higher than what we and others have found using question wording that reduces acquiescence bias: brightlinewatch.org/accelerated-... The vast majority of Americans reject political violence.
Really good points. I’m also curious how much of this stems from: 1) The long-running goal of the conservative movement to work the refs (journalists) via accusations of left-wing bias. VS. 2) More recent polarization by education.
Thanks to the folks at APSA for organizing a great conference, and Vancouver for being a great host city! cc @janzilinsky.bsky.social
True! I just wanted to get a sense of the trends in assassinations over time. But our gun ownership rate is total outlier. H/T @garciaponce.bsky.social en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Estimat...
In contrast, President Trump has blamed the "radical left" for Kirk's assassination and vowed to "beat the hell out of them" (www.politico.com/news/2025/09...). His supporters have taken note and have vowed revenge (www.reuters.com/world/us/rig...). The U.S. is in a dangerous place.
Finally, as I found in research my on nasty politics, elite rhetoric matters—especially from national leaders. Republican Governor of Utah, Spencer Cox, has sought to reduce the political temperature following the assassination of Charlie Kirk. www.axios.com/local/salt-l...
The U.S. stands out not just for its polarized politics, but for its gun culture. The U.S. has far more guns than any other country. That means it's much easier for alienated and aggrieved individuals to take violent action. www.vox.com/policy-and-p...
But we shouldn’t take too much solace. Law enforcement is better at preventing attacks (www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025...) And modern trauma care saves lives. Gabby Giffords survived an assassination attempt that likely would have been fatal a century ago (www.politico.com/story/2011/0...)
Assassinations peaked after the Civil War in the late 19th century, and again in the 1960s-1970s. There’s been a recent uptick, but it’s still below the 1970s peak.
To show this, I built off this list from Wikipedia (en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of... compiled assassinations of U.S. politicians (local, state, federal, judges, etc.). I documented 53 assassinations between 1815–2025. *Note: This only includes politicians, not activists, and excludes ambassadors.
Some thoughts on trends in political violence and where we are headed in the U.S. First, violence has been part of U.S. politics since the beginning.
Credit where credit is due. This Politico symposium on political violence is good.
For folks who are Hungary-dooming, (a) Orban was genuinely popular, and (b) very far from a done deal, but "was" has been the operative adjective for some while - www.reuters.com/world/hungar...
"Scholars who study these processes around the world have really been taken aback by how quickly this has proceeded," says @brendannyhan.bsky.social. newrepublic.substack.com/p/democratic...
We’re in DC, so perhaps there’s a certain focus that comes with that 🤷♂️
Yeah, the students definitely recognize the stakes.
Had my first classes of the semester: 1) Psychology of Political Violence and Terrorism 2) Ideology, Extremism, and Violence Students in both classes were as engaged as I’ve seen in my 10+ years teaching. #TheKidsAreAlright
We're hiring! The @au-spa.bsky.social is hiring an assistant professor specializing in political violence and terrorism. Deadline: September 22nd. Feel free to reach out if you have questions! See below for the job ad and application. american.wd1.myworkdayjobs.com/AU/job/Main-...
Still, the bottom right for the next 3.5 years is going to be rough
4) Coordinating opposition is hard, but when it happens it can be rapid (see Ukraine in 2013-2014, Color Revolutions) 5) America's federal system is messy, which makes it hard to fully control
I'm a cautious optimist by nature, so here's a few things I tell myself that I believe are true: 1) He's unpopular 2) It's a personalist regime and movement built around a charismatic leader which makes it brittle 3) They aren't that patient, they're more interested in breaking things
So many ways to interpret it. I read it as this person thought that if Bush and Quayle won in ‘92 would be a better country. 🤷♂️
Spotted on the Beltway in DC— it’s a relatively new car, and a new bumper sticker.
Super important point buried in the 14th and 15th paragraphs: Right-wing extremist groups have been relatively quiet because the Trump administration is carrying out much of their agenda. www.nytimes.com/2025/08/23/u...
True, those things matter. But I would say there is nothing like the failed Turkish Coup Attempt in 2016 that Erdogan used to consolidate power (en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_Tu...). The authoritarian push is happening without a major catalyst or structural shift.
I'm not a fan of structural explanations—and recent events are no exception. America's authoritarian turn is happening during a period of no major foreign war, no widespread unrest, no pandemic, and relatively good economic conditions. There are an awful lot of *choices* being made.
Yep…they’ve been excellent! And so have Wired. Yep foreign outlets, non-mainstream outlets (Guardian, Wired, etc.) have the distance necessary to objectively describe what is happening .
FT, Globe and Mail, Der Spiegel, etc.
Also, I’ve found that some of the clearest reporting on America’s authoritarian turn isn’t coming from U.S. outlets but from foreign journalists and media.
It’s been dismaying to watch many U.S. civic leaders sleepwalk through the authoritarian turn in our politics. Yes, coordination problems are hard. But also most Americans don’t have memories of authoritarian rule to draw on. We don’t have the civic antibodies like Brazil or Ukraine.
As the U.S. under Trump does everything it can to stop EVs, China is racing ahead www.theatlantic.com/technology/a...
Haas, Violeta I., Tim Wappenhans, Ferdinand Geissler, Felix Hartmann, Daniel Bischof, Johannes Giesecke, Macartan Humphreys, et al. 2025. “Beyond Persuasion: Protest’s Direct Behavioral Impact on Bystanders.” OSF Preprints. June 19. doi:10.31219/osf.io/42s8e_v2. doi.org/10.31219/osf...
Fascinating paper by @haasvioleta.bsky.social and colleagues. Using a field experiment around climate protests, they find that protests don't durable change bystander norms or attitudes, but they do change their immediate behavior. osf.io/preprints/os...
If you want to understand the timing of Trump’s authoritarian political theater around DC policing, check out @janzilinsky.bsky.social in @goodauth.bsky.social. He shows how critical coverage of Trump and Epstein spiked with both liberal & conservative media goodauthority.org/news/the-eps...
Nothing good can come out of this meeting, especially for Ukraine www.washingtonpost.com/politics/202...
People’s tendency to underestimate how much others support climate action is recurrent finding in empirical studies of climate policy support, and is a huge sore point for political climate action.
About to get positively Argentinian up in here
Received some pushback from a colleague. It's true, voters do have core values on certain issues & don't always follow. A famous instance of voters not following their leader is when Trump was booed by his own supporters in Alabama for telling them to get vaccinated. www.nbcnews.com/politics/don...
We're hiring! The @au-spa.bsky.social is hiring an assistant professor specializing in political violence and terrorism. Deadline: September 22nd. Feel free to reach out if you have questions! See below for the job ad and application. american.wd1.myworkdayjobs.com/AU/job/Main-...
One thing Trump II has made clear to me: we’re all living in @gabelenz.bsky.social's world now. Most voters don’t choose candidates based on issues. They choose candidates first, then adjust their issue positions to match. press.uchicago.edu/ucp/books/bo... h/t @brendannyhan.bsky.social
Thanks, Miranda!
My book, Stop the Machines, is out today (July 28 in the US). As AI advances and global crises intensify, a countercurrent is emerging: groups that want to dismantle the technological system, rather than merely critique or regulate it. tinyurl.com/ynaus6y2
Thanks, Cullen!
Haha, great song/video
Thanks, Cas!
Thrilled to share the cover of my upcoming book, out February 2026 from @oxfordacademic.bsky.social NO OPTION BUT SABOTAGE The Radical Environmental Movement and the Climate Crisis global.oup.com/academic/pro...
The “worst-case scenario of famine” is currently taking place in the Gaza Strip, according to an alert issued by the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC), a United Nations-backed initiative.
Young people are experiencing significant emotional distress regarding climate change. For many, though, disagreeing with an item like "people have failed to take care of the planet" could feel equivalent to dismissing environmental problems entirely, creating social pressure to affirm it.
I think that’s right. But the US also had probably the least aggressive pandemic, lockdown, and didn’t have the bite of inflation as much as European countries. I guess we will have to wait till 2028 to find out 🫠
I think that’s right to some extent but also isn’t there a decline in economic voting in recent elections?
Is this just another case of *U.S. exceptionalism*? Or part of a broader global trend in how democracies are threatened from within even in the absence of major crises?
Or do we need to rethink our democratic theories? Maybe the drivers of voter anger and disillusionment today aren’t primarily economic. Maybe they’re symbolic and driven by opportunistic elites.
So, was 2024 just a perfect confluence of factors? A uniquely unpopular incumbent (Biden) + the return of Trump?
We know a few things from past research: -Voters tend to reward incumbents during economic growth -Wealthy democracies tend to be more resistant to backsliding (see Przeworski quote below as.nyu.edu/content/dam/... ).
A long-term puzzle for political scientists: Why did voters in the richest country in the world—during a period of objectively strong economic conditions—choose radical regime change in 2024?
This @elanaklein.bsky.social @wired.com piece about a digital detox camp is both fascinating and disturbing. I tend to be skeptical of “tech is what’s wrong with everything in society”— but man is tech a big part of the socialization of kids and teens today. www.wired.com/story/teen-s...
Really cool and important post by @kwcollins.bsky.social and the team at Survey 160 on the promise and pitfalls of using “silicon samples” (LLM -generated simulated survey responses) for polling and public opinion research. www.survey160.com/methodologic...
SPA Prof. @zeitzoff.bsky.social spoke to @franceinter.fr about the surge of political violence since Trump’s 1st term, his pardons & rhetoric empowering extremists & undermining democratic values. "It's very, very, very concerning." (in French, 02:43) bit.ly/40TJXZK #SPAintheMedia
New paper finds a ‘climate activist’s dilemma’: “study participants perceived climate activists engaging in extreme protests to be more immoral and supported movement less. However, extreme protests also heightened climate concern and intention to take action.” www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...
Embrace @zeitzoff.bsky.social thought! (link: bsky.app/profile/zeit...)
“In 1946 amid persistent racial divisions, popular radio series Adventures of Superman launched Operation Intolerance, a sequence of new episodes promoting equality, rejecting racial discrimination and exposing the KKK’s bigotry. We find lasting impacts…” dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn...
New paper. What happens when a presidential candidate steps way out of line, not only with the public, but even with his own voters? And on a highly salient issue? Candidates typically don’t do that—they’re too strategic. But Trump isn’t. He’s good for social science. 🧵
It’s just N=1, but it’s still telling. To the democratic world the authoritarian turn under Trump 2 is both bizarre and frightening. To much of the US media it’s politics as usual.
I used to get more media interview requests from U.S. domestic media outlets than foreign media outlets. But in the past few months it’s flipped. I’ve talked with way more foreign journalists trying “to understand what is going on in the U.S.”
And you’ll be fooling yourself if you think that the Trump DOJ will ever prosecute any ICE agents for abuses. It’s a sad and dangerous day for human rights in the U.S.
ICE agents and supervisors are bureaucrats. Like other bureaucrats they want to please their bosses. And the Trump/Miller signal from this bill makes these goals crystal clear: “Get those arrest numbers up. Be creative.” www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025...
All it takes is: -Pressure to “get the job done” -Demonization of the target group (militants, communists, immigrants) -A culture of impunity That’s when torture and abuse become systemic and escalate.
Studies of torture and human rights abuses by state agents—such as Abu Ghraib stanfordmag.org/contents/zim... and the Greek military police during the dictatorship psycnet.apa.org/record/1989-... — show they there doesn’t have to be an order saying: “Go torture!” What matters are the incentives.
As someone who studies political violence, here’s what scares me about the new Trump’s bill: It’s not just the resources it gives to ICE which is already a human rights disaster. It’s the signal it sends to ICE supervisors and agents.
"One of the most important, and most overlooked, functions of protest is to prevent the dreaded 'spiral of silence,' which can begin when people wrongly believe that their own point of view is not widely shared," Betsy Levy Paluck writes:
Want to easily scrape data from news media sites? There's an R package for that! paperboy "paperboy offers writers of web scrap[ers] a clear path to publish their code & earn co-authorship on the package, while deliver[ing] news media data from many websites in a consistent format."
On Friday at 17:00 (1A.10) I'll present "The Logic of Connective Faction: How Far-Right Media and Digitally-Networked Elites Radicalize Politics" (co-authored w/@curdknupfer.bsky.social & @yunkangyang.bsky.social) on panel "Politics, Media, and Radicalization" #EPSA2025 Paper: tinyurl.com/38czxhh6
Wow. I really didn't think he'd be foolish enough to do it. Some initial thoughts, as writing them down will help me not scream 🧵
Trump’s domestic politics have been awful, but the tail risk from his foreign policy is what keeps me up at night.
Is it possible to treat psychopathy before it starts? Fascinating article on new therapies and approaches. www.scientificamerican.com/article/is-i...
Awesome—go USMNT!
And unlike Wall Street, which at least paid lip service to the idea that some institutions were necessary, Tech Bros see them as roadblocks efficiency.
The Tech Bros are: 1. Even less socially altruistic 2. Richer, more powerful, and less accountable 3. And have much weirder preferences—“the AGI Singularity is almost here!”— that makes them want to dismantle more of society.
Never thought I’d be saying this, but a part of me yearns for the Wall Street “Masters of the Universe” elite of the 1980s-early 2000s. The Tech Bro Oligarchy we have now is worse on all dimension. www.hks.harvard.edu/faculty-rese...
I wrote about how the 2020 protests hurt Trump politically. I also wrote about how counternarratives about left-wing violence are just spin — and wildly at odds with the reality of extremist violence. Gift link: wapo.st/3SOEv6e
A lot of people exercising their 1st amendment right in suburban Maryland today—great turnout too!
Highly recommend “More Everything Forever” by @adambecker.bsky.social Does a good job explaining narratives and philosophy of the bizarro politics of Silicon Valley elite—and how they have infected our politics. www.hachettebookgroup.com/titles/adam-...
Sadly, yes. 🫠
Trump isn’t especially popular. And neither is the kind of repression he’s been using in LA. But that creates a perverse incentive: to escalate, provoke, and polarize further. It’s clear the Trump admin thinks this is a winning issue. It’s going to be a long and dangerous summer.
Democrats don’t control many levers of institutional power in Washington. This means we’re likely to see them turn to disruptive tactics—like boycotts, walkouts—to signal to voters that things aren’t OK.
The media struggles to call this what it is. Partly because it breaks their “will this help/hurt Democrats or Republicans?” frame. And partly because the repression is one-sided: it’s coming from the right.
A few observations about where we are right now: The Trump administration is clearly targeting Democratic politicians through arrests and repression. This rightfully scares academics like myself who have seen this movie play out in other countries (Ukraine, Turkey, etc.). It doesn’t end well.
An accurate barometer of our democracy right now 🫠
Trump isn’t a popular president. That means he and his advisors have incentives to use heavy-handed repression. What’s unfolding in LA is a deliberate effort to stoke outrage and invite violence. It’s a risky and dangerous strategy. See bsky.app/profile/zeit...
DHS wanted 20K national guard troops for immigration enforcement. With crossings down >90% since Trump took office it'll be difficult to sustain a declaration of emergency. Plus, this is a bad idea, will damage public support for the military. The Pentagon should deny the request.
4 (cont’d). The fact that our political and economic fortunes revolve around the whims of 2 narcissistic elites is a massive democratic failure. See what happened in pre-Maidan Ukraine kyivindependent.com/opinion-ukra... or is happening in Georgia currently www.theguardian.com/world/2024/o...
4. And beneath the spectacle lies a bigger problem. U.S. democracy is in a bad place right now.
3. Still, it’s a big deal. Parties are coalitions of factions, and factional infighting often has lasting consequences (see: the Tea Party insurgency).
2. But this is catnip for the media. The president and the wealthiest man in the world engaging in a middle school lunch fight. It’s the stuff that political journalists and insider politico gossip columnist dream of. It will likely dominate coverage, and distract from more pressing issues.
1. Voters don’t like mudslinging, name-calling, or petty insults. Voter will likely be even more turned off by the level of pettiness on display here.
As someone who wrote a book on “nasty politics”—why politicians insult and threaten their opponents—here are 4 observations about the Musk-Trump fissure.
