Was chatting with a friend this morning who’s active duty Army and he was complaining about how bad the average soldier is at shooting and fighting.
Political Scientist. Author of “Political Choice in a Polarized America” @OUP. Dad. Sauna enthusiast. Crossword solver. Powerlifter. Cyclist. ✡️ ∞ Views are mine alone. RT!=endorsement
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Was chatting with a friend this morning who’s active duty Army and he was complaining about how bad the average soldier is at shooting and fighting.
The two readings I most wish I had gotten to before Trump II are Vaclav Havel and Battle Cry of Freedom
Also wild as shit to tell a story about the American founding without mentioning African Americans, who were here contributing to a society that oppressed them before the Irish, Italians, Poles, Slavs, Jews, etc who supposedly have some claim to this country by birthright.
tbh there's a reason Caldwell called to repeal the Civil Rights Act and that the postliberals as a whole want SCOTUS to institute a new regime that ignores the reconstruction amendments
If this is your position, you reject the reconstruction amendments, which means you reject the constitution as a whole. Period. It’s a rejection of the Lincoln, Jefferson, Madison—the whole Megillah.
The sheer arrogance that America is more “for you” because of your ethnicity is hard to overstate. These people are looking to justify a white supremacist ideology with a completely ahistorical reading of the founding documents and ethos.
The American experiment is based on the idea that citizenship is not based on ethnicity. We tried to conflate the two with slavery and the constitution failed as a result. The reconstruction amendments made this principle explicit. This shit is fundamentally anti American and anti patriotic.
waded into the "is a hot dog a sandwich" debate. Didn't stake out a clear position. Said he's got the best people "looking into it very strongly."
Not in Canada, evidently, which is fake.
Seriously though @mcopelov.bsky.social, have you seen the price of eggs. Gotta be a bipartisan solution ™️ there.
a new working paper: osf.io/vsr5b I propose a three-stage model of cohortization where dynamics of cohort learning and political sorting serve as complementary engines of aggregate political change. I apply this to the case of the killing of George Floyd & the BLM. it's also my job market paper!
Trump never thinks about the Constitution unless its an obstacle for him. Vance actively wants to unravel what's left of it.
I, for one, didn't realize we had hired for the position of "Jew Decider"
We’re only a few years removed from creatjng a vaccine to protect against a deadly airborne virus in a matter of months. Now, we have a scion fail son running the CDC into the ground not because it failed, but because its success conflicts with RFK Jr’s eugenicist ideology.
Man, Congress needs to nuke this presidential national emergency special powers baloney from orbit next time they get a chance
Man, you suggest people eat some vegetables and all the sudden they’re comparing you to a eugenicist.
"When the C.D.C. was created in 1946, the average life expectancy in the United States was around 66 years. Today, it is more than 78 years. While medical advances have helped, it is public health that has played the biggest role in improving both the length and quality of life in our nation."
As one does.
Effective public health makes it look like nothing is happening when in reality they’re effectively dealing with all sorts of threats
also the CDC's refusal to "just let covid spread" in march/april 2020 is something trump never got over, i suspect. like in his mind, covid was weaponized against his victory
In addition to their immorality, what they hope to achieve genetically isn't achievable. Their plans and actions will cause mass deaths but it will not change the underlying genetics.
"This is a time to rally to protect the health of every American." run them out on rails, babies, i know you have it in you. sweet jesus, this is damning.
“Why did nobody from the government ever tell me Coca Cola and Pringle’s wasn’t a balanced dinner”?
RFK Jr has no interest in science, data, or the like. He’s an ideological radical that is not constrained by facts or reality. He’s a modern day mystic. He hates the CDC because modern science and medicine refute his superstitions.
I’m convinced he’s the most dangerous person in this administration, and that’s saying something.
He’s fundamentally committed against the idea of public health. He thinks a large portion of the population isn’t fit to live and resents the idea they should be helped.
RFK Jr has no interest in science, data, or the like. He’s an ideological radical that is not constrained by facts or reality. He’s a modern day mystic. He hates the CDC because modern science and medicine refute his superstitions.
We’re only a few years removed from creatjng a vaccine to protect against a deadly airborne virus in a matter of months. Now, we have a scion fail son running the CDC into the ground not because it failed, but because its success conflicts with RFK Jr’s eugenicist ideology.
Fox News has caused the Rs numerous winnable senate seats by boosting low quality ideologues in primaries.
37%... woof
Today is still a great day to delete your Twitter account
Today is still a great day to delete your Twitter account
This guy watched Biden get crushed by inflation and doubled down on every inflationary policy imaginable. He’s going to be radioactively unpopular come 2026. www.cnbc.com/2025/08/29/p...
Inshallah
This guy watched Biden get crushed by inflation and doubled down on every inflationary policy imaginable. He’s going to be radioactively unpopular come 2026. www.cnbc.com/2025/08/29/p...
A modern day Picasso
Doctors out there, why are they having such a hard time controlling the swelling in his legs?
My contribution to the authoritarianism discourse: we're already way too far down the road, and lots of institutions that could've stopped this chose not to (SCOTUS, R Senators) but consolidation is way easier when Dear Leader is improving the quality of life, and Trump is doing the opposite.
My contribution to the authoritarianism discourse: we're already way too far down the road, and lots of institutions that could've stopped this chose not to (SCOTUS, R Senators) but consolidation is way easier when Dear Leader is improving the quality of life, and Trump is doing the opposite.
bsky.app/profile/fili...
healing the world involves doing things in, well, the world.
The scriptural origins of the "Two Jews, Three Opinions" doctrine.
Iowa regent on new academic freedom policy: “I’m not afraid of whacko wokeness if my conservative views are presented as well. I’m confident our values can prevail if presented fairly.” www.thegazette.com/higher-educa...
This is the correct take about the US in late summer, early fall 2025:
has she declared? I knew she was considering it
I think Alaska may be in play if Peltola runs.
From the fine folks rebranding lard as a health food
According to federal data, 13 of the top 20 cities in homicide rates have Republican governors. None of those cities are Chicago. 8 of the top 10 states in homicide rates are led by Republicans. None of those states are Illinois. And yet Trump is sending troops here.
It’s just Science, folks.
You’re one step ahead of me then.
“fucking mitochondrial challenges”
that sounds right.
You're doing the Lord's work.
Obama won more than 70 of the 99 counties in 2008!
I'm still blown away by 1.) The public's widespread disapproval of Trump and his policies (unlike his first term, he's not more popular than his policies this go around). And, 2.) the timidity of people that hold positions of power when it comes to opposing Trump. The people want resistance! 1/2
we need a Linda Yaccarino "😂 🤣 😆 Good One, Sir!" Tweet to accompany this
University and business leadership has rolled over and played dead. Legacy media orgs are bending over backwards. The public, by and large, hate this. I struggle to come to any conclusion other than people with institutional power are more comfortable with an authoritarian than the electorate. 2/2
I'm still blown away by 1.) The public's widespread disapproval of Trump and his policies (unlike his first term, he's not more popular than his policies this go around). And, 2.) the timidity of people that hold positions of power when it comes to opposing Trump. The people want resistance! 1/2
I think a big part of the Democrats’ problem is so many elected Ds are lawyers. The last Democratic president that was a non lawyer was Carter. Lawyers are trained to view the law as something that you should adhere to try to find advantageous loopholes in. That’s not an understanding of power 1/x
The "Dictators Dilemma" is when the dictator would benefit from hearing accurate information, but everyone around the dictator has a very real incentive to lie in order to remain in Dear Leader's good graces. I doubt Trump hears a lot of the facts that contradict whatever he believes that day.
I look forward to Miasma Theory finally making a comeback. The Germ Theory of Disease folks have become too big for their britches.
The countervailing trend which doesn't eliminate but does ameliorate this tendency is modern states can run around for a pretty long time like, as it were, a chicken with its head cut off. Not forever, but they're robust enough to keep going even as large chunks get blasted away and fall off.
It's sucking ass so hard you risk opening up a portal to another dimension.
The "Dictators Dilemma" is when the dictator would benefit from hearing accurate information, but everyone around the dictator has a very real incentive to lie in order to remain in Dear Leader's good graces. I doubt Trump hears a lot of the facts that contradict whatever he believes that day.
"Trench warfare is Good and Fun" is quite a take
👇 It's a good newsletter
"Nobody knows or cares if she is Black" I confidently declare, right before opening up my first book about American history.
He backs down when people fight back, but too few high ranking people choose to fight.
This is correct, though I'd add that plenty of Dems love/fear beer distributors. They're a powerful political bloc in DC and statehouses across the country. Here's a column I filed earlier this month at @vinepair.com on the National Beer Wholesaler Association's biggest lobbying win recently:
many people are saying this very strongly
Beer distributers must be up there with car dealership owners as one of the most influential Republican niche constituencies.
Nobody tell Trump about whale oil lamps.
Any port in a storm, but I agree, yeesh.
If we had a different SCOTUS maybe things would look different, but we don’t. There is no rescue coming from the courts. The Dems need someone that understands power and how to wield it, because we’re well beyond the point where The Law will help us. It’s about pure, raw power 7/7.
Trump only understands power and the law, to the extent it matters to him at all, is an impediment to his power. He’s unpopular, but the Democrats and pro democracy coalition generally haven’t found and effective mode of opposition due to the view that the law is self enforcing. It isn’t. 6/x
The law is a beautiful thing and one of the things that prevents despotism, anarchy, and other ills, however, if a party is operating outside the law you cannot maintain the illusion that the law will somehow constrain them. That’s a fantasy at that point. We need to snap out of it 5/x
What we have is a collective institutional rot. People are so convinced in American exceptionalism and democracy that people aren’t willing to actually do the work of maintaining it 4/x
The law isn’t exogenous. It’s not self enforcing. if a law is meaningful someone has to do the hard work of enforcing it and we collectively don’t seem to have the appetite to do that. People will say “the constitution doesn’t allow x, y, or z” which is only true if someone will enforce it. 3/x
Trump doesn’t give a shit about the law. He only understands power. His motto is “fuck it, try and stop me.” Bush II, another non lawyer, had a bit of this impulse as well. Well, guess what, very few people have been willing to try and stop him. He understands power more than the lawyers. 2/x
I think a big part of the Democrats’ problem is so many elected Ds are lawyers. The last Democratic president that was a non lawyer was Carter. Lawyers are trained to view the law as something that you should adhere to try to find advantageous loopholes in. That’s not an understanding of power 1/x
She had some nerve being black AND a woman
This is my view too, but I think the fact he thinks there are incentives to push back is a good thing, regardless of his personal motivations.
Some of us have Had Enough and wonder why the so-called opposition in the US has seemingly not. Why doesn’t the average Dem sound like Pritzker? It’s nuts.
Also Walz, particularly now that he doesn’t have dopey D establishment types breathing down his neck
I’d love to see the reaction if a Democratic presidential candidate proposes a national guard occupation of Shreveport, Louisiana or Fort Worth, Texas on the grounds of rampant crime.
Pritzker, Newsom, and to some extent Hochul get it. Pritzker communicates the reality of the situation without any weird “bipartisan solutions” framing that the Dems are so addicted to.
Yeah, this bit is wild. People are psychologically committed to normalcy no matter how much water the boat is taking on
“Let Walz cook” was the correct stance in 2024 and is still correct now
Both of which have way more crime than NYC, esp Shreveport.
I’d love to see the reaction if a Democratic presidential candidate proposes a national guard occupation of Shreveport, Louisiana or Fort Worth, Texas on the grounds of rampant crime.
It’s pretty jarring when you see clips of him from 2015 versus now.
The whole era has been a crisis in search of an actual problem. Ironically, COVID, the actual crisis, was downplayed to the point that it unnecessarily killed hundreds of thousands. We’ve just gotten unmoored from reality.
Pritzker, Newsom, and to some extent Hochul get it. Pritzker communicates the reality of the situation without any weird “bipartisan solutions” framing that the Dems are so addicted to.
NYT Op Ed “Actually, Trump isn’t going to do any of the stuff he repeatedly said he’d do”
I'm not sure what the solution here is, but people making the obvious point that Trump wants to use the US military against domestic opponents were derided as hysterical by large swaths of the media. So much false equivalence and straight up gaslighting built into the information environment.
👇 bsky.app/profile/core...
I'm not sure what the solution here is, but people making the obvious point that Trump wants to use the US military against domestic opponents were derided as hysterical by large swaths of the media. So much false equivalence and straight up gaslighting built into the information environment.
An electoral system that manufactures legislative majorities out of electoral pluralities and outcomes that swing wildly based on only a couple percentage point shift in vote margin are another key similarity.
Transposing this analysis to the UK is an interesting exercise. "It seems that Labour are already as the Conservatives were late in their term. The country was deeply pessimistic about the future in July 2024 and wanted change, but swapping Labour for the Conservatives did little...
My sense is that we are at an incredibly unstable moment in history--almost no outcome should be written off as impossible. We're in the middle of a tech bubble and democracy failure. Things are looking flakey around the edges, to put it mildly. 3/x