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Stephen Michael Kellat

@alpacaherder.bsky.social

Former federal civil servant. Current instructor of Computer and Information Systems. Multiple affiliations but I do not speak on behalf of any of them through this account. Contact via Signal: alpacaherder.27

created February 13, 2024

836 followers 571 following 1,204 posts

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Posts

Profile picture Avi Henriques 🩸 (@legalizegoblins.bsky.social) reposted

For Labor Day, I wanted to talk about the success of Paizo's unionization. We formed United Paizo Workers in October 2021, won voluntary recognition, and ratified our first contract in 2023. This happened because of solidarity, good union training from CWA, and empowerment of the workers.

2/9/2025, 1:05:13 AM | 135 45 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Social Media Lab (@socialmedialab.ca) reposted

It feels like we are living through a live version of 'Weekend at Bernie's'.

2/9/2025, 5:47:31 AM | 11 1 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Stephen Michael Kellat (@alpacaherder.bsky.social)

f24.my/BP05

2/9/2025, 5:52:36 AM | 0 0 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Angry (@angrystaffer.bsky.social) reposted

No idea what this Oval Office announcement is. Could be resigning Could be apologizing because Stephen Miller molted all over the Residence and someone caught staff dumping the exuviae out of the window Could be clarifying that tariff revenue is really eleventy three trillion

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2/9/2025, 3:21:51 AM | 3565 673 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Stephen Michael Kellat (@alpacaherder.bsky.social) reply parent

Possibly. Dan Scavino’s hand could be up the social media puppet again like it was on J6 posting things Trump didn’t quite know about. Civil service retiree sense says something is rather awry and that whatever the 2 PM announcement is about could likely get very weird in unanticipated ways.

2/9/2025, 4:41:36 AM | 1 0 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Molly White (@molly.wiki) reposted

i swear to god if he launches another memecoin

2/9/2025, 3:37:53 AM | 506 26 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture NY Times Pitchbot (@nytpitchbot.bsky.social) reposted

President Brezhnev is alive and well. by Katherine Leavitt

2/9/2025, 2:09:53 AM | 575 39 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture John Scott-Railton (@jsrailton.bsky.social) reposted

NEW: Mercenary spyware is coming to the US. ICE just quietly unsuspended their contract with spyware maker #Paragon. Remember them? Caught earlier this year being used to hack Italian journalists. This is bad, let's talk about how we got here 1/ jackpoulson.substack.com/p/exclusive-...

2/9/2025, 1:16:18 AM | 541 388 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Marisa Kabas (@marisakabas.bsky.social) reposted

ā€œIn 2017, O’Hanlon was captured at Trump’s first inauguration festivities in DC decked out in his full Eagle Scouts uniform. The photographer who took the photo wrote on his personal website of ā€˜the Boy Scout kid that looked like a Brownshirt.ā€™ā€

2/9/2025, 2:10:25 AM | 386 101 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Courtney, Literally (@courtneyliterally.bsky.social) reposted

I get this comment quite a bit and I'd really like to talk about my Autistic masking experience in today's video.

29/8/2025, 5:53:28 PM | 21 6 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Stephen Michael Kellat (@alpacaherder.bsky.social) reply parent

Apparently we learned nothing from the Philippines?

1/9/2025, 10:26:54 PM | 1 0 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Sharon (@sharonk.bsky.social) reposted

"what if instead of trying to make Iraq a democracy, we turned Venezuela into an American colony?"

1/9/2025, 10:24:53 PM | 49 3 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Stephen Michael Kellat (@alpacaherder.bsky.social) reply parent

The capo is giving one of his lieutenants a reward before he passes on?

1/9/2025, 10:24:41 PM | 0 0 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Stephen Michael Kellat (@alpacaherder.bsky.social)

I miss being a librarian. At least I am tangentially connected to the library world as an instructor in information systems at a community college in northwest Pennsylvania.

1/9/2025, 10:22:51 PM | 2 0 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Glenn Fleishman (@glennf.com) reposted

Hey, kids, this is how we used to Google.

Pin-fed paper with perforation for removal with dot-matrix printing on it, black ink slightly faded. Text reads Type N for next record. Type H for help.Type I for index. Type G for guide. Type Type R to revise search, H for help. E to start over. TYPE COMMAND AND PRESS RETURN== > ORBIS SEARCH REQUEST: T=SIGNATURE BIBLIOGRAPHIC RECORD -- NO. 1 OF 15 ENTRIES FOUND Signature: a quadrimestrail of typography and graphic arts. 1935-Dec. 1940; new ser. [no.] 1-18; July 1946-1954. London. v. ill., plates (part col.) 25 cm. SML : wanting* indes for Rollins Coll. Publication suspended, 1941-June 1946. Indexes: new ser. 1-15. 1946-1952, in v. 15. SUBJECT HEADINGS (Library of Congress; use s= ): Printing--Periodicals. Illustration of books--Periodicals. Printing--Specimens. [no.] 1-15; Nov• CONTINUED ON NEXT SCREEN: press RETURN Type N for next record. Type H for help-Type I for index. Type R to revise search, H for help. E to start over. TYPE COMMAND AND PRESS RETURN==> ORBIS SEARCH REQUEST: T= SIGNATURE BIBLIOGRAPHIC RECORD -- NO. 1 OF 15 ENTRIES FOUND (CONTINUED) Signature ... (CONTINUED) LOCATION: SML, Stacks, Yale Classification CALL NUMBER: X126 S45 (copy 1) LIBRARY HAS: ** Holdings are NOT yet available in ORBIS. ** Please consult appropriate periodical ** card catalog, or a reference librarian. LOCATION: SML, Arts of the Book (non-circulating) CALL NUMBER: X126 Si26 2 copies c. 2 in Rollins
1/9/2025, 9:48:50 PM | 15 3 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Stephen Michael Kellat (@alpacaherder.bsky.social)

Well, I guess I need to start looking at buying a boat to live on then that can traverse the Saint Lawrence Seaway. Crap like this will probably see me losing my house. At least in a boat I can set sail for safe harbors.

1/9/2025, 10:15:39 PM | 0 0 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Daniel Gilmore (@gilmored85.bsky.social) reposted reply parent

"there is always an ideal solution that convieniently asks nothing of me and I will get angry if you suggest otherwise" has really been a driving ideological force in our politics since 2020.

1/9/2025, 7:33:23 PM | 183 34 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Daniel Gilmore (@gilmored85.bsky.social) reposted

What school closure discourse is a reminder of is that there are a lot of ppl in this country, cutting across the political spectrum, who reject the very concept of tradeoffs or that there could ever be a situation where all solutions have downsides & you just gotta pick the least bad one.

1/9/2025, 7:32:36 PM | 295 55 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Stephen Michael Kellat (@alpacaherder.bsky.social) reply parent

What is going bump in the night

1/9/2025, 8:46:42 PM | 1 0 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture David Slack (@slack2thefuture.bsky.social) reposted

Tulsi Gabbard is *very obviously* a foreign intelligence asset and I hope we all live long enough to see her tried and convicted for it.

1/9/2025, 12:14:45 AM | 2998 904 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Stephen Michael Kellat (@alpacaherder.bsky.social) reply parent

Things like this are why I think we’re past the point we can save things or unwind the damage. A new constitutional settlement at a minimum is going to be needed. We have to perhaps radically restructure to prevent this ever happening again.

1/9/2025, 5:37:00 AM | 12 1 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Anna Bower (@annabower.bsky.social) reposted

This is the provision Ensign cited as the basis for the government's authority to summarily remove unaccompanied migrant children. I’d love to hear from immigration lawyers, but having briefly looked at it… it’s so frivolous it’d be laughable if it weren’t so cruel. (Am I wrong??)

1/9/2025, 5:05:27 AM | 1018 283 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Rumpole the Brief (@rumpole-brief.bsky.social) reposted reply parent

It's difficult to imagine the complex meeting to coordinate the abduction of so many kids and then spiriting them away immediately to a foreign country at night on a holiday weekend without...well, hearing maniacal supervillain laughter.

1/9/2025, 5:28:32 AM | 19 3 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Gabriel Malor (@gabrielmalor.bsky.social) reposted

Reminder: the apparent plan was to spirit these children away in the middle of the night without them ever seeing the inside of a courtroom to challenge their deportation. Children.

1/9/2025, 5:23:10 AM | 1669 579 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Rachel Klein (@racheleklein.bsky.social) reposted

Between Trump being 1/2 dead all weekend, Giuliani’s car crash, Clinton traveling with a defibrillator, this, I’m reminded that we’re NOT actually collectively psychologically (& logistically) prepared for the RATE at which the earliest round of boomers are going to start dropping.

1/9/2025, 1:20:35 AM | 457 90 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Glenn Fleishman (@glennf.com) reposted

Beats finding a bear in the woods

1/9/2025, 3:40:48 AM | 16 1 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture cixceven.bsky.social (@cixceven.bsky.social) reposted reply parent

None of us relish this.

31/8/2025, 4:16:38 PM | 25 1 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Patrick Chovanec (@prchovanec.bsky.social) reposted reply parent

I initially had a typo that said "condiment sentiment". I definitely think we need an economic number that measures this. Ketchup is up +10% from a year ago, but mustard is down -5%, while relish remains unchanged.

31/8/2025, 3:37:18 PM | 78 2 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Patrick Chovanec (@prchovanec.bsky.social) reposted

University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index was 74.0 in December, now 58.2 in August. Conference Board’s consumer confidence index was 104.7, now 97.4. Government officials shouldn’t go on TV and blatantly lie like this.

31/8/2025, 3:36:04 PM | 1051 287 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Mark Copelovitch (@mcopelov.bsky.social) reposted

Performative public lying is a hallmark of far right authoritarian parties

1/9/2025, 3:20:20 AM | 356 55 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Catherine Rampell (@crampell.bsky.social) reposted

Remember the Goolsbee Rule, also called the ā€œpathological irony of crisisā€: If you lose credibility, your statements begin to mean the opposite of what you say.

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31/8/2025, 11:14:04 PM | 5969 1341 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Rob von Thaden (@rvontha.bsky.social) reposted

h/t @klhkhistorian.bsky.social

31/8/2025, 11:50:24 PM | 1 1 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Alan Elrod (@aselrod.bsky.social) reposted

This is depraved

31/8/2025, 7:44:29 PM | 126 26 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Hunter Walker (@hunterw.bsky.social) reposted

This is an interesting question. If the president ever needed serious hospitalization beyond what the facility at the WH can offer, they would have to be taken offsite. That requires a motorcade or chopper. Typically, the pool would note that.

31/8/2025, 9:42:21 PM | 108 18 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Olga Nesterova (@onestpress.onestnetwork.com) reposted reply parent

More

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31/8/2025, 9:42:38 PM | 57 7 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Olga Nesterova (@onestpress.onestnetwork.com) reposted

Don’t act suspicious, don’t act suspicious….

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31/8/2025, 9:39:00 PM | 318 59 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Josh Marshall (@joshtpm.bsky.social) reposted

This is worth sharing far and wide. Federal Employees and contractors oral history project. Im not involved in this. Just got the link, idea seems to be to create a record of the assault on the American Repuvlic after Jan 2025. www.fecohp.org

31/8/2025, 6:14:06 PM | 1296 652 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Standplaats Kraków (@standplaatskrk.pl) reposted reply parent

23/10/2024, 10:42:19 PM | 239 25 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Helen Kennedy (@helenkennedy.bsky.social) reposted

How are they going to justify sending the National Guard into New York City when they've told us that New York City has already been reduced to rubble by marauding gangs of gay murderers?

31/8/2025, 7:39:42 PM | 145 28 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Marisa Kabas (@marisakabas.bsky.social) reposted

NEW: A week or so ago, one federal agent kept popping up in videos from Trump's violent DC crackdown—so @jsweetli.bsky.social and I investigated. Turns out he's a 26-year-old US Parks Police officer, a lesser known law enforcement unit currently championed by Interior Sec. Doug Burnum. Our report:

31/8/2025, 3:40:01 PM | 3888 1516 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture NE Ohio Regional Sewer District (@neorsd.org) reposted

the summer may be coming to an end but the sewers will go on.

31/8/2025, 3:11:02 PM | 165 5 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture UNITED24 Media (@united24media.com) reposted

šŸ’¬ ā€œHe wants to restore the old Soviet Union. And that includes part of my country,ā€ says German Chancellor Friedrich Merz.

31/8/2025, 3:16:00 PM | 202 53 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Eric Topol (@erictopol.bsky.social) reposted

How much protein should you consume? erictopol.substack.com/p/our-preocc...

31/8/2025, 3:17:06 PM | 231 63 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Drew Harwell (@drewharwell.com) reposted reply parent

Definitely something the industry has been warning for months would happen

31/8/2025, 1:45:42 PM | 23 1 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Aaron Reichlin-Melnick (@reichlinmelnick.bsky.social) reposted

The headline calls this unexpected consequences, but I would call this extremely expected consequences.

31/8/2025, 1:43:31 PM | 678 124 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture RNS (@rns.org) reposted

On average, people attending church in person had a higher heart rate during the service and experienced more transcendence, according to a recent study. religionnews.com/2025/08/20/s...

31/8/2025, 1:30:17 PM | 5 4 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Polygon (@polygon.com) reposted

From Stranger Things to strange new Disney Plus shows.

31/8/2025, 1:30:20 PM | 18 6 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Stephen Michael Kellat (@alpacaherder.bsky.social) reply parent

Not Joan of Arc but rather Horst Wessel instead en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Horst_W...

31/8/2025, 1:37:48 PM | 0 0 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Aquilino A. Gonell (@sergeantaqgo.bsky.social) reposted

She was a traitor then, is a traitor now and she will always be in the future.

30/8/2025, 4:28:13 PM | 1292 268 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Mark Zaid, Esq (@markzaidesq.bsky.social) reposted reply parent

He was sentenced to 63 months in prison. One of the longer sentences. www.justice.gov/usao-dc/pr/t...

31/8/2025, 12:51:15 AM | 847 152 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Mark Zaid, Esq (@markzaidesq.bsky.social) reposted

This is the type of person Trump pardoned. He proudly asserts that they should have injured a US Capitol Police Officer worse than they did on January 6th (@sergeantaqgo.bsky.social) had to medically retire). But MAGA supports law enforcement? Seriously? Then show me by condemning this guy.

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31/8/2025, 12:49:45 AM | 5498 1589 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Harry Dunn (@libradunn1.bsky.social) reposted

What a POS

31/8/2025, 1:30:38 PM | 688 174 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Dan Nexon (@dhnexon.bsky.social) reposted reply parent

it would be nice if, in this limited respect, power-political necessity and republican virtues align. Because the rules are shredded, the norms are gone, and our institutions are subverted. We are in a power-political struggle between fascist authoritarianism and pluralist democracy. Period. /end

30/8/2025, 8:10:01 PM | 382 44 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Dan Nexon (@dhnexon.bsky.social) reposted reply parent

I don't know what the correct balance is. But I do know that we need to expand the pro-democracy coalition, and I suspect that this *will* require approaches that abandon stigmatization of allies and potential allies in favor of empathy and persuasion.

30/8/2025, 8:10:01 PM | 349 50 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Dan Nexon (@dhnexon.bsky.social) reposted reply parent

We haven't lost yet. But we are losing. And no one — and I mean *no one* — has figured this out. So we've got politicians who think the only way to expand the coalition is to triangulate; we've got ones who think what matters more is having the courage of your convictions.

30/8/2025, 8:10:01 PM | 338 51 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Dan Nexon (@dhnexon.bsky.social) reposted reply parent

I don't think that people should abandon fighting for their rights or the rights of others. We all want to defeat reactionary authoritarianism and replace it with a new, better, pluralist democracy. Pluralist democracy is hard. It was too hard for MAGA and the post-liberals.

30/8/2025, 8:10:01 PM | 282 29 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Dan Nexon (@dhnexon.bsky.social) reposted reply parent

They *want* people hived off into antagonistic groups; they *want* people to believe that they can't form cross-cutting social ties; and they *want* people to see all institutions everywhere as eternally compromised.

30/8/2025, 8:10:01 PM | 420 66 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Dan Nexon (@dhnexon.bsky.social) reposted reply parent

And that gets at a larger point. Competitive authoritarian regimes benefit from reduced social trust — which is why they actively try to destroy it.

30/8/2025, 8:10:01 PM | 481 81 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Dan Nexon (@dhnexon.bsky.social) reposted reply parent

There are virtues to working with people you otherwise disagree with. It's much harder, for example, for people to "other" religious, sexual, ethnic, & racial minorities when they spend time working with them as allies. It's no accident that the authoritarian right now wages a war against empathy.

30/8/2025, 8:10:01 PM | 373 59 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Dan Nexon (@dhnexon.bsky.social) reposted reply parent

But remember, none of this requires that we abandon the causes we believe in. None of this requires backing candidates we don't trust* in nomination contests. *I do mean "trust." We don't need politicians to say the all the right things. We need them to "do" the right things more often than not.

30/8/2025, 8:10:01 PM | 347 44 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Dan Nexon (@dhnexon.bsky.social) reposted reply parent

We should expect the regime — with help from Russia and other foreign actors — to engage in active measures to stoke tensions within the opposition. They will accuse us of being foreign agents. They will attempt to infiltrate the opposition with the aim of radicalizing and discrediting it.

30/8/2025, 8:10:01 PM | 304 40 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Dan Nexon (@dhnexon.bsky.social) reposted reply parent

If we are going to prevail against them, we need as large an opposition tent as we can get. We need disciplined counter-mobilization. That means protests where SJP doesn't get on stage and tell people that if they don't support the destruction of the state of Israel, then they need to go home.

30/8/2025, 8:10:01 PM | 341 43 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Dan Nexon (@dhnexon.bsky.social) reposted reply parent

They've been replaced with sycophants and true believers. The security services are being purged. Thanks to the Big Beautiful Bill, the regime now has its NKVD. Each day more true believers joint its ranks.

30/8/2025, 8:10:01 PM | 315 28 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Dan Nexon (@dhnexon.bsky.social) reposted reply parent

It gets worse. Even if the Ds win the midterms, we should not expect a peaceful transfer of legislative power. The kind of people who stopped Trump from declaring martial law, seizing voting machines, arresting opposition leaders.... they're all gone.

30/8/2025, 8:10:01 PM | 455 74 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Dan Nexon (@dhnexon.bsky.social) reposted reply parent

But it's the truth: the choice is between a small-d democratic coalition — one in which a majority either supports or is sympathetic to the causes we're talking about – and a fascist authoritarian regime that will use every tool at its disposal — including violence — to suppress vulnerable "others."

30/8/2025, 8:10:01 PM | 346 49 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Dan Nexon (@dhnexon.bsky.social) reposted reply parent

Pro-democracy politicians will *fail* if they don't have space to form alliances with people who don't share our beliefs and room to blunt successful wedge issues. That sucks.

30/8/2025, 8:10:01 PM | 367 50 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Dan Nexon (@dhnexon.bsky.social) reposted reply parent

There's no point in punishing the nominees of the opposition for stances that we consider beyond the pale — let alone ones that are problematic. The logic of "teaching them a lesson" presupposes that we still have a system in which the opposition can win elections.

30/8/2025, 8:10:01 PM | 402 60 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Dan Nexon (@dhnexon.bsky.social) reposted reply parent

Wedge strategies are also a time-honored feature of routine democratic politics. Everyone uses them. My point is simply that *stakes* are different. We are *not* in routine democratic politics.

30/8/2025, 8:10:01 PM | 359 28 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Dan Nexon (@dhnexon.bsky.social) reposted reply parent

We also have some limited ability to influence how unified the pro-democracy coalition is. Remember, competitive authoritarian regimes rely on divide-and-rule tactics. The sooner the opposition unifies, the better the odds of dislodging autocratic rulers.

30/8/2025, 8:10:01 PM | 408 63 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Dan Nexon (@dhnexon.bsky.social) reposted reply parent

There are things we can influence, of course. Most of what we can do right now is prepare, especially for participation in collective mobilization against the regime — and here I mean everything from becoming involved in local politics and civil society to learning the tactics of mass protest.

30/8/2025, 8:10:01 PM | 417 63 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Dan Nexon (@dhnexon.bsky.social) reposted reply parent

Right now we're talking about the best case scenario. It requires a lot of things to fall into place. A lot of those things are outside of the control of Democratic officials and politicians. Even more are outside of our control.

30/8/2025, 8:10:01 PM | 330 24 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Dan Nexon (@dhnexon.bsky.social) reposted reply parent

Taking one or both chamber may be enough to slow down, let alone stop, the consolidation of authoritarianism. But if GOP holds... then, all else equal, democracy is fucked. It'll also really matters that Ds do well at the state level. The fewer states that are laboratories of autocracy, the better.

30/8/2025, 8:10:01 PM | 481 58 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Dan Nexon (@dhnexon.bsky.social) reposted reply parent

Put differently, if a) what we're looking at is an unfair playing field but +/- free elections and b) the regime faces a unified opposition, Ds have a decent chance of taking the House. I am also cautiously optimistic about the Senate, but I wouldn't bet money (see @jonathanbernstein.bsky.social) ▼▼

30/8/2025, 8:10:01 PM | 351 39 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Dan Nexon (@dhnexon.bsky.social) reposted reply parent

3) GOP states will also ratchet up voter suppression, with help from the Department of Justice and the Supreme Court. Expect some *very* aggressive efforts. We won't be able to stop them. But there is a non-zero chance that they miscalculate and drive angry voters to the polls.

30/8/2025, 8:10:01 PM | 478 52 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Dan Nexon (@dhnexon.bsky.social) reposted reply parent

2) GOP states will continue to aggressively gerrymander. When all is said and done, Ds will be able to offset some of this but not all of it. The GOP will still likely lose the House, but keep in mind that the we're in a long-term existential struggle. Bigger majorities > smaller than ones.

30/8/2025, 8:10:01 PM | 450 36 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Dan Nexon (@dhnexon.bsky.social) reposted reply parent

1) We will still have an on-balance independent media. The MSM will be subject to state coercion, some of it successful, but it will also continue to break stories that are damaging to the regime.

30/8/2025, 8:10:01 PM | 380 23 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Dan Nexon (@dhnexon.bsky.social) reposted reply parent

Okay. So there's a lot of uncertainty about how "free and fair" the 2026 midterms are going to be. If you forced me to speculate, my *low confidence* prediction is that they'll be less free and much less fair than in 2024.

30/8/2025, 8:10:01 PM | 513 61 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Dan Nexon (@dhnexon.bsky.social) reposted reply parent

The worse news: the bulk of successful cases had a "white knight" — and international power who facilitated the regime transition through some combination of pressure, brokering deals, and carrots. Guess who that white knight usually was?

30/8/2025, 8:10:01 PM | 594 49 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Dan Nexon (@dhnexon.bsky.social) reposted reply parent

But it was too late. To understand what happened, you *must* read @kimlanelaw.bsky.social's @jodemocracy.bsky.social article ▼▼ In fact, just drop what you're doing and read it now.

30/8/2025, 8:10:01 PM | 644 163 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Dan Nexon (@dhnexon.bsky.social) reposted reply parent

I have bad news and worse news. The bad news: the more consolidated the authoritarian regime becomes, the harder it is to dislodge it. The opposition in Hungary finally got its act together in 2022, and formed a coalition that included far-right and far-left parties.

30/8/2025, 8:10:01 PM | 637 90 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Dan Nexon (@dhnexon.bsky.social) reposted reply parent

One of the many ways the regime fights back is to try to use its considerable resources to wedge apart those coalitions. And it often succeeds, because it is *very* hard to hold together politically diverse coalitions *even* when elections are free and fair.

30/8/2025, 8:10:01 PM | 683 63 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Dan Nexon (@dhnexon.bsky.social) reposted reply parent

We have a decades of scholarship on how pro-democracy forces win in competitive authoritarian systems: they form a united opposition that brings together people with otherwise profound political disagreements.

30/8/2025, 8:10:01 PM | 1333 321 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Dan Nexon (@dhnexon.bsky.social) reposted reply parent

1) it will be difficult — but not impossible — for the opposition to win elections; and 2) if the government overtly steals an election, it can be toppled via widespread popular mobilization *if* the security services split or abandon the regime.

30/8/2025, 8:10:01 PM | 642 78 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Dan Nexon (@dhnexon.bsky.social) reposted reply parent

Let's start with the "best" scenario right now: that the US. remains a "competitive authoritarian" system. We have elections that are unfree and unfair, but not total and complete shams. This means that:

30/8/2025, 8:10:01 PM | 554 64 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Dan Nexon (@dhnexon.bsky.social) reposted reply parent

This consensus is correct. But I don't think enough people have actually internalized the implications. That is, they're perfectly happy to point out that too many Dem officials don't understand this, but they haven't updated their own understanding of what this means for taking the country back.

30/8/2025, 8:10:01 PM | 663 79 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Dan Nexon (@dhnexon.bsky.social) reposted

🧵 Authoritarianism, Democratization, and Coalition Politics. The consensus around here is, more or less, that the United States is currently a consolidating authoritarian regime controlled by a mix of reactionary populists and fascists.

30/8/2025, 8:10:01 PM | 1593 688 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture @NewsJennifer (Jennifer Schulze) (@newsjennifer.bsky.social) reposted

Just because you feel like your day to day life may have not changed that much much doesn't mean that America hasn't changed dramatically under Trump. Authoritarianism is here, right now. We all need to be as clear eyed about it as @vermontgmg.bsky.social: www.motherjones.com/politics/202...

American fascism looks like the president using armed military units from governors loyal to his regime to seize cities run by opposition political figures and it looks like the president using federal law enforcement to target regime opponents. American fascism looks like the would-be self-proclaimed king deploying the military on US soil not only not in response to requests by local or state officials but over — and almost specifically to spite — their vociferous objections.
31/8/2025, 12:01:58 PM | 387 145 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Mike Boylan-Kolchin (@mbkplus.bsky.social) reposted

It’s really hard to do insightful satire of right-wing weirdos because almost any ridiculous stance you can come up with, they’ll just express freely without a shred of irony.

31/8/2025, 12:10:33 PM | 1554 209 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Josh Marshall (@joshtpm.bsky.social) reposted

This ā€œexplicitā€ is a weird editorial choice. The constitution gives the president no power over this at all. It’s not ambiguous.

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31/8/2025, 5:30:06 AM | 15834 3684 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Stephen Michael Kellat (@alpacaherder.bsky.social)

I was in DC on Wednesday and Thursday. To my eyes it looks like too many people have gotten used to the madness. 249 years was a good run but we might not be able to save the patient. Starting over from scratch is increasingly looking like a good idea at this point to me.

31/8/2025, 6:16:06 AM | 12 2 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Alan Elrod (@aselrod.bsky.social) reposted

Hello, I am furious www.liberalcurrents.com/let-it-burn-...

30/8/2025, 11:59:08 AM | 1229 433 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Alan Elrod (@aselrod.bsky.social) reposted reply parent

The best stuff on this recently comes from @donmoyn.bsky.social and @jvl.bsky.social Here’s Don on how America has already slipped into competitive authoritarianism and is hurtling toward outright authoritarianism donmoynihan.substack.com/p/the-author...

30/8/2025, 5:39:27 PM | 36 14 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Alan Elrod (@aselrod.bsky.social) reposted reply parent

On the question of our national character and whether we can recover from all this, I also wrote a bit more on the question of civic virtue for @liberalcurrents.com back in April www.liberalcurrents.com/inherent-vic...

31/8/2025, 5:50:30 AM | 17 7 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture David Slack (@slack2thefuture.bsky.social) reposted

ā€œThe times, places, and manner of holding elections for senators and representatives, shall be prescribed in each State by the legislature thereof; but the Congress may at any time by law make or alter such regulations, except as to the places of choosing senators.ā€ - US Constitution, Art. 4.1

31/8/2025, 5:57:37 AM | 133 51 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Mark Copelovitch (@mcopelov.bsky.social) reposted

Don’t. Print. Lies. In. The. Newspapers.

31/8/2025, 5:57:08 AM | 459 89 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Purity Tester (萬Q 瓫米) (@anem0ne.net) reposted

german universities were once at the forefront of science before the nazis destroyed them to eliminate the "jew science" that would lead to the atomic bomb; the nazis eugenic beliefs were based in several ways on weird, occult, medieval beliefs fascism rhymes and adapts. america's is not unique

31/8/2025, 12:31:56 AM | 586 149 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Patton Oswalt (@pattonoswalt.bsky.social) reposted

šŸ’ÆšŸ’ÆšŸ’ÆšŸ’ÆšŸ’ÆšŸ’ÆšŸ˜‚šŸ˜‚šŸ˜‚šŸ˜‚šŸ˜‚šŸ˜‚

31/8/2025, 4:58:14 AM | 2649 221 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Angry (@angrystaffer.bsky.social) reposted

What in the ever loving fuck is going on here

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31/8/2025, 3:07:07 AM | 11265 2458 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Dinner is 6 pm (@internethippo.bsky.social) reposted

Chatbots killing their users suggests that big tech has transitioned from simple parasite to parasitoid, indicating that keeping the host alive is no longer essential for their evolutionary strategy

30/8/2025, 10:57:44 PM | 3454 558 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Olga Nesterova (@onestpress.onestnetwork.com) reposted

The non vaccinated maga campaign people sent me their ā€œterms and conditionsā€. (I didn’t ask for it). This is a campaign they launch with paid posts, promoted content with ten influencers launching at a time to support RFK Jr’s nonsense. So expect a wave of bs.

31/8/2025, 3:43:48 AM | 315 100 | View on Bluesky | view