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Buy now, pay later.
Typically, armed forces are used to meet armed invaders.
Could be a turning point
Yeah maybe I am thinking about it too literally. The economy is so big and diverse, and companies are doing so well, I don’t see the economy deteriorating in the next few quarters to recession levels. But a trump crisis-> economic pain, that really punctures his image. Say, a crisis in Taiwan.
Sherman would have got the job done. Reconstruction.
Economic catastrophe seems much more like after a midterm loss, as trump lashes out. Just my view of course.
D+8 would require a catalyst, like an economic catastrophe. Little sign of any such thing. AI bubble popping likely leads to a regular recession. Tariff inflation is bad/stupid/illegal but is about 1% GDP. Firing the Fed boars will probably get shrugged off. No debt ceiling risk near term.
The GOP could approach this race strategically and nominate a bland moderate republican. I expect they’ll nominate a trump aligned nobody who knows their ticket to power is cutting any restraints on trumps power grab.
Joni Ernst will not run for reelection. Iowa could be in reach for democrats. A stretch, but they should try
Colonel Lee. Thank you for calling out my mistake.
Also may I remind everyone: Robert E. Lee was a shit general who lost.
Clinton crime policy would probably be popular. Hire more police. Under local control, but federally funded. Not armed for war but neighborhood patrol.
Why god. Condemning kids to die.
"RIP to vaccines; long live Lysenkoism, miasma, and black bile." defector.com/rfk-jr-is-ma...
FBI: “We are investigating the Minneapolis incident as an act of domestic terrorism and a hate crime targeting Catholics.”
Why do you want to muzzle the victims.
People process things in different ways. Some kids want to talk about the things that happen to them. We don't know.
Yeah sorry, this is a dumb take. Please look into the downstream consequences of the massacres at Boston or the Champ de Mars.
If he can cut, it'll cause inflation, and rates will eventually be forced higher. Impossible keep them low forever with all that inflation.
what does the market think of Trump's attempt to "fire" Lisa Cook? Short term interest rates fell. But long term, rates rose. They *somewhat* believe he'll pull it off.
The Supreme Court blessed this. They made the fed special.
If the Fed holds their meeting and puts her name in the reports of the meeting, is she really fired? Like, she can just zoom into the meeting. And if the market accepts the report, then she's still setting policy in the only way that matters.
Trump really went with "you're dumb" as a reason. I wonder why he think's she unintelligent. Usually, he seems to think a little light mortgage fraud is a sign of intelligence. Maybe there's something about her appearance.
Yields moved a touch, down 3-4bps.
He's trying to make this a "for cause" firing. So complying with the law, in the most pretextual way.
Trump is trying to remove Fed Governor Cook. The one black woman on the board
TRUMP: NOT INVOLVED IN JOHN BOLTON SITUATION Me: liar
So the national guard is deployed to DC to protect sexual harassers. Not the crime story you’ve been told
President January 6th is going to declare an insurrection. Seems backward.
I like how this interview was redacted by the most impartial lawyer of all: Trump’s personal defense attorney
MAXWELL SAYS SHE NEVER SAW TRUMP 'IN ANY INAPPROPRIATE SETTING' — not the question anyone is fixating on
His low poll numbers are an emergency of a sort
Market is soaring btw
Fed says risks on both sides of market, with new downside risks to labor. I do think they'll cut the next time there's a jobs report that's not very strong.
trump is trying to push out exactly 1 (one) member of the Fed: Lisa Cook. Shocking that he's singled her out. The most prominent black woman there
Dude you’d have to melt down, like, Jupiter to build a Dyson sphere. Arithmetic is hard I guess.
Every car salesman I've ever talked to had to "check with the manager"
When I read a headline like this, I just SUPER DUPER want to vote by mail. "Trump vows to end use of mail-in ballots ahead of 2026 midterm election"
Gotta check with the manager: "Trump interrupts talks with European leaders to call Putin, reports Germany's Bild"
To the sweaty, fretting crowd. Governors aren't under Trump's control. Not for elections. Picture Nov 4th 2026, and Trump has "fired" Newsom overnight. And Newsom shows up to work in Sacramento. And if Californians recognize his authority, he _is_ still the governor.
Is 2000 a good example here? The technology really did work! Society was transformed! And yet stock valuations got way out of hand.
He made Charlie Kirk real mad.
Oh that is funny.
Yeah. Did they do "nudging" with the exception of stimulus via payroll tax withholding?
Yeah but it's more like "bad things are bad and anyone who makes does a bad thing shall wear the scarlet letter of their mistake for all time." Serious question: wld you consider saying something like: "Ok, we can move on from Newsom's mistakes and I don't think I need to bring them up again?"
I think you make a good point. Newsom said some awful stuff, and we can be righteously mad at him for it, but I really do not understand the reflex that people have online: bring up the awful stuff at every single opportunity. This reflex seems like it's just sabotaging any chance to respond.
I also am mad at you for things you’ve never written. How dare you advocate for Mayo on pb&j?
This is actually a good test of the “normalization” theory. He deployed the Guard to LA. That obviously did not normalize their use, because we’re talking about this today.
Its awful
That apple pledge maybe makes him think he can do this consequence free?
Exactly my thoughts.
Trumps people are going to say GDP is +25% aren’t they
Just the design on that thing.
Everyone knows that fake job statistics turn into real jobs
super low (fake) unemployment numbers aren't going to make the Fed cut
General public has believed the economy is in a great depression for like 6 years.
Trump fires US Labor Department's statistical leader after weaker than expected jobs report - reuters They're going to cook the books folks
So Elon killed Elmo
Recent job gains were overstated by a quarter million.
Surprisingly bad jobs number today. Still adding jobs, likely not keeping up with population. Unemployment ticks up from 4.1% to 4.2%. Interest rates dropped pretty sharply
Not everything can be efficiently sourced locally. And we have to switch labor from high value-add to low. Maybe an adjustment can be made after an extremely long time, like 40-50 years. Tariffs are worse in practice than VAT, even if the revenue is the same.
VAT is more aesthetically pleasing but does have upward redistribution effects. If you’re implying that people are mildly hypocritical… they are.
Viva la France, cynics
France to recognise Palestinian state in September, Macron says
Trump's name appears in a list. But we can't see the list because it contains CSAM. That revelation alone is staggering. Gotta think there's even worse that they're covering up. Sickening.
I think you mean “duck you”.
I thought it was rendition. Render unto trump…
really good labor market numbers this morning
Feel like it's been steepening for a few days now in anticipation of this. Good jump in the last few minutes, so it wasn't fully priced in
Are we a banana republic? I feel like an actual banana republic would have lower tariffs on bananas.
the leaks gotta be from the guy who wants the job, trying to box trump in
BLOOMBERG CITING A WHITE HOUSE OFFICIAL : TRUMP LIKELY TO FIRE POWELL SOON ... that would be bad
Does Mannheim include a hedonic adjustment?
Medical inflation is hot, going to get worse next year I'd guess once the budget bill starts to bite
Inflation is up a touch. 2.7% (was 2.4% last month) In this case, I would pay more attention to headline when trying to understand effect of tariffs. Core by definition is slower to react.
Study on effect of AI on software developers: 1. It slowed them down 2. They thought it was speeding them up AI really only excels at creating the impression that it excels at things. Link: metr.org/blog/2025-07...
It’s a pretty good way to watch baseball. Got it for the first time this year.
Who to believe
Just asked Grok: “Given the available data, the best estimate is that roughly 40% of U.S. voters might support the America Party”
She literally stuck her neck out. What an example to us all.
I believe a big obstacle to e gasoline is political economy. Deploying this means buildings would have oil furnaces. These could of course be fueled by fossil fuels, supporting demand for those fuels.
I recall hearing about molten salt systems, but just burying your ground sourced heat pump a little deeper is a semi efficient way to store heat. Requires a lot of space though. Synthesizing e gas would be a compelling technology if it develops. Then you turn summer sun into fuel for winter.
Wind works well in the winter, so the the renewable heating tech I would expect to be economic is: wind, cold-tolerant battery technology,& heat pumps. The first is well solved (worked for TX). The latter two are too expensive for now, but no reason to think we won’t travel down the learning curve.
Good point. Was think about the stable coin bill, and the problems that’ll create in a few years.
Stable coins tho
Each country will get a special little letter, in a slight to the very concept of the EU
No confirmation that the first was sunk. The second appears to be intact.
And now the Eternity C www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/detai...
Also, we apologize for the capitalization and punctuation.
This has a real "and this time I mean it" feel.
I don't think it'll help those countries to try and negotiate. Look what it got them so far.
New 25% tariffs on Japan and South Korea.
He just announced all-new 25% tariffs on Japan and South Korea. Or maybe this is a reannouncement of previous tariffs, or maybe these are immediately deferred. Or maybe these will really actually be imposed for real this time.
The Magic Seas is claimed sunk. www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/detai...
That rocked.
Never been to a WNBA game.
We don’t have to imagine! Ilhan Omar said “it’s all about the Benjamin’s baby” and people read that as virulent antisemitism. Huge contrast.
Got this lie-filled propaganda email from social security.
Fed is right to hold
Elon tried to buy the election there to prevent this