Manuel Excel
@colintj.bsky.social
“A mainstay of charts and graphs twitter” - MGo “Top-notch, safe, family-friendly heckler” - Benetti
created July 1, 2023
1,401 followers 475 following 2,098 posts
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Manuel Excel (@colintj.bsky.social) reply parent
Think he’s blitzing like 75+% of the time? And they’re not just, like, fire zones where we’re plugging the open B gap to kill early down runs. There’s always a line game or two guys coming from depth or it’s 4-deep 2-under or 2 Steal etc. etc. DK how many day 1-3 install calls he ran but not many.
Manuel Excel (@colintj.bsky.social) reply parent
Literally opened the game with a 0 blitz. Safety is response for the TE so he’s following the split block.
Manuel Excel (@colintj.bsky.social)
The reasons for this double peak after a multi decade trend downward are really worth understanding.
Manuel Excel (@colintj.bsky.social)
Early impression of the D is NMU did a nice job going to big and bigger personnel to get Michigan's 3-4 on the field and then went quick game, screens, and other misdirection and took advantage of Wink's inclination to blitz and preference to put the 3-4 out vs. 12 against bad teams.
Manuel Excel (@colintj.bsky.social) reply parent
*the play that starts this thread should not have been a pull
Manuel Excel (@colintj.bsky.social) reply parent
Here’s a pull where we’re not going as fast. Bryce prob just reading numbers here since it’s a pretty cloudy read. And in retrospect I think that prob should not have been a pull. You’re going fast tempo, you can’t count numbers. Anything other than a true crash is a give.
Manuel Excel (@colintj.bsky.social) reply parent
bsky.app/profile/coli...
Manuel Excel (@colintj.bsky.social) reply parent
The pull is to get to a boot throw that we ran plenty of
Manuel Excel (@colintj.bsky.social) reply parent
The vertical release from the WRs + OZ + tempo makes this a really obvious Lindsey influence play. Not reinventing anything here but obvious why this plays to our strengths. And also shows why OZ can be so challenging for the D. Horizontal stretch is tough.
Manuel Excel (@colintj.bsky.social) reply parent
And then the same play going the other way. UNM busts in part bc once again they’re getting the ball off real quick. Two 3Ts means there’s some kind of game on. Both backers follow the arrow. Nice reach from Sprague.
Manuel Excel (@colintj.bsky.social) reply parent
Sideline view makes the whole concept clear. Also prob a TD if Bryce pulls.
Manuel Excel (@colintj.bsky.social)
OZ + Post/Wheel/Arrow RPO. Track blocking OZ. This snaps at like 35 seconds so this is a 1 word call that they always have in the back pocket. Look really comfortable blocking this. They get off and get physical. Link does a real nice job. Bryce should pull here.
Manuel Excel (@colintj.bsky.social) reply parent
The Ni retreating early there is a Tampa tip and in general any time you see an uncovered slot it’s a good bet you’re getting Tampa.
Manuel Excel (@colintj.bsky.social)
Dagger vs Tampa. Dig from 1 always a good look vs Tampa, see it more and more (Day ran lots of backside Dig vs Minter in 2023). Pole runner should cheat to 2 since 3 eliminates himself immediately. But Bryce throws a laser beam that no defender was touching anyway.
Manuel Excel (@colintj.bsky.social) reply parent
you better not get what you want here
Manuel Excel (@colintj.bsky.social) reply parent
UNM was tiny and not esp. athletic, so just not much reason to lose control of your guy.
Manuel Excel (@colintj.bsky.social)
IMO guys ending up on their asses or off their feet is telling. Bad technique a cause but strength, balance, and athleticism can keep you upright and useful after you whiff on your first strike. Not exactly news I suppose, but aside from Sprague we just don’t have the big uglies right now.
Space Coyote (@spacecoyote.bsky.social) reposted
Thoughts on Michigan: Overall, very happy with the O scheme. Would like a little more heavy formations, a little less 4-wide, but overall I think it’s close to what I was looking for. Run game diversity from Moore, PAP, roll outs, take advantage of some free yards and get easy looks for QB
Manuel Excel (@colintj.bsky.social) reply parent
was a great catch bc he almost blew the first catch
Manuel Excel (@colintj.bsky.social) reply parent
it’s a ridiculous trend. looks horrible in person and on TV
Manuel Excel (@colintj.bsky.social) reply parent
McIlhenny Muntz plz and thank you
Manuel Excel (@colintj.bsky.social) reply parent
that 6 pack has my name on it! @rossrfulton.bsky.social
Manuel Excel (@colintj.bsky.social)
Casual rocket right on time and perfectly placed
Manuel Excel (@colintj.bsky.social) reply parent
think El Hadi should’ve done better than that and you know they’re going to be cancelling gaps w something bc the numbers they’re showing. he’s having a rough go of it so far from what I’ve seen.
Manuel Excel (@colintj.bsky.social) reply parent
think our prior should be full time starter JJ and that was 4-5 rushes per game sacks and scrambles included. maybe bump it up somewhat bc you know Bryce is going to play in a lot more close games than JJ.
Manuel Excel (@colintj.bsky.social) reply parent
they were never going to
Manuel Excel (@colintj.bsky.social)
Not an amazing sign for the line
Manuel Excel (@colintj.bsky.social) reply parent
I think they ran a ton of stuff for Bryce. That wasn’t just the first couple days of installs.
Manuel Excel (@colintj.bsky.social) reply parent
Yeah that’s true too. Maybe there’s more there than I’m crediting.
Manuel Excel (@colintj.bsky.social)
I think if we’re just looking at the O EPA, NMU is probably not good enough for us to think this was the performance of a top 15 Michigan team.
Manuel Excel (@colintj.bsky.social) reply parent
Purely O EPA yes
Manuel Excel (@colintj.bsky.social) reply parent
Higher than that by a bit maybe but top 4 is prob asking way too much.
Manuel Excel (@colintj.bsky.social) reply parent
Plenty of mistakes was last year.
Manuel Excel (@colintj.bsky.social) reply parent
why Sherrone?
Manuel Excel (@colintj.bsky.social) reply parent
bsky.app/profile/coli...
Manuel Excel (@colintj.bsky.social)
Refs killed a drive for us and gifted them 40 yards and a 1st at the 2 which min 5 points of expectation and prob more like 8? Think this is a team we want to beat by 40 to be a top 4 team? Playing more like the 15th even adjusted for fuckery?
Manuel Excel (@colintj.bsky.social)
Hmm is wedge a good play
Manuel Excel (@colintj.bsky.social) reply parent
well coached and the QB is prob decent? the D sucks huge ass tho
Manuel Excel (@colintj.bsky.social) reply parent
think I mostly agree
Manuel Excel (@colintj.bsky.social)
Wink is increasingly bringing pressure, especially from the edge. Been some HOT but prob largely FZ. Lots of Penny and Odd depending on personnel. Only criticism so far the struggles vs screens. Have caught them with good calls and still not made plays so not a pressure prob don’t think.
Manuel Excel (@colintj.bsky.social)
Think UNM is more like 110th in the country than 130th but we still want to win by 40
Manuel Excel (@colintj.bsky.social)
Every single play until the TD was horseshit but that was a fuck up by Jyaire. It’s man, he has to go through you.
Manuel Excel (@colintj.bsky.social)
This entire drive is a fucking joke
Manuel Excel (@colintj.bsky.social)
Anybody else think Ryan Williams might be available next offseason
Manuel Excel (@colintj.bsky.social)
Somebody mentioned to me very important point: they felt like they didn’t need to just run a draw if whatever and go into the locker room. Showed trust and trust was rewarded.
Manuel Excel (@colintj.bsky.social) reply parent
need a LEAK UNDEFEATED too
Manuel Excel (@colintj.bsky.social) reply parent
first of the season
Manuel Excel (@colintj.bsky.social)
WHEEL ROUTE
Manuel Excel (@colintj.bsky.social) reply parent
Dagger is Seam from 2 and Dig from 1
Manuel Excel (@colintj.bsky.social)
That was Dagger on the very long 3rd down completion. An early 2023 staple for JJ. Lindsey’s preference for vertical releases probably showing thru as well.
Manuel Excel (@colintj.bsky.social) reply parent
no idea. but tend to think that matters a lot less in NIL Era. or it matters differently, in any case. think it’s as simple as people don’t like firing their guys.
Manuel Excel (@colintj.bsky.social) reply parent
Think that was just C1? Think that’s a good choice for that distance + opponent. And obvi it worked.
Manuel Excel (@colintj.bsky.social) reply parent
his safeties also looked very poor and he had very little to do to get them ready to play
Manuel Excel (@colintj.bsky.social)
Good test of Wink 3rd down calls here. A ton of bailing into Tampa last year w some pressure sprinkled in.
Manuel Excel (@colintj.bsky.social) reply parent
was super obvious that Brown should’ve not been asked back, at least
Manuel Excel (@colintj.bsky.social)
Michigan had problems all year against screens. Eck seems to know it.
Manuel Excel (@colintj.bsky.social)
Honestly you have to give it up for that shit
Manuel Excel (@colintj.bsky.social)
Spider 2 Y Banana
Manuel Excel (@colintj.bsky.social) reply parent
he’s had 2 and looked OK. not better than that. but we don’t care about that yet. 18 yr olds have different standards.
Manuel Excel (@colintj.bsky.social) reply parent
yeah that’s just high high level athleticism
Manuel Excel (@colintj.bsky.social)
Yep this too. The velo is HIGH, folks.
Manuel Excel (@colintj.bsky.social)
Bryce’s 3 incompletions are two drops and a bad idea that was right on his target’s facemask. The placement so far is phenomenal.
Manuel Excel (@colintj.bsky.social)
Hillman ejections O/U: 3.5
Manuel Excel (@colintj.bsky.social)
The difference between this kind of comfortable athletic throw and some of the awkward throws from the same angle we saw earlier today is stark.
Manuel Excel (@colintj.bsky.social) reply parent
he’s out
Manuel Excel (@colintj.bsky.social)
Both Wink and Patricia ran a lot of Penny (5-1 Nickel) looks today. Read up!
Manuel Excel (@colintj.bsky.social)
Michigan running a lot of Wrap or long Trap type looks in the run game. Block down and let the wrapper take the 8th in the box or the trapper take the EMLOS.
Manuel Excel (@colintj.bsky.social)
@matchquarters.bsky.social do you have a Penny front explainer?
Manuel Excel (@colintj.bsky.social)
Top 3 3rd down call from Wink there going Penny front and bringing Barham and playing C1 behind it. Will see Tampa from the same look as well.
Manuel Excel (@colintj.bsky.social)
Penny and then Odd fronts for Wink on first and 2nd. FZ and then FZ.
Manuel Excel (@colintj.bsky.social) reply parent
Alan, he was that bad. He was worse than Davis Warren. That bears on your priors about his draft stock.
Manuel Excel (@colintj.bsky.social)
TL; DR Offense: get to league average and you feel great about where things are going Defense: get Wink to figure out what “FIB” means and you feel great about where things are going
Manuel Excel (@colintj.bsky.social) reposted
Hi Michigan football interested friends, I did a giant post summarizing my thoughts on the program and what to expect this year substack.com/@manuelexcel...
Manuel Excel (@colintj.bsky.social) reply parent
yeah I haven’t watched a ton of games but I think he’s the best QB I’ve seen today?
Manuel Excel (@colintj.bsky.social)
I’m pretty into Simpson tbh. Not sure who is giving him help.
Manuel Excel (@colintj.bsky.social) reply parent
two in a row right? and under the same circumstances. looks like he’s rattled
Manuel Excel (@colintj.bsky.social)
Hiring is such a big deal. Malzahn + Tony White is a killer coordinator combo. Wommack is a miss.
Manuel Excel (@colintj.bsky.social) reply parent
I do not understand what Wommack is doing with that D
Manuel Excel (@colintj.bsky.social)
Wommack is gonna get fired on the tarmac
Manuel Excel (@colintj.bsky.social)
Have been an advocate for this since I was 8. Classic blacktop 3 second hold losers walk maneuver.
Manuel Excel (@colintj.bsky.social)
Somebody explain that mugged A gap front on normal downs from Wommack to me. As far as I know nobody else in football runs anything like it in those situations.
Manuel Excel (@colintj.bsky.social) reply parent
The breakup he had on Smith after stumbling sold me instantly. The speed and size is ridiculous.
Manuel Excel (@colintj.bsky.social)
Nothing complicated from Texas D last 2 downs. Lined up in 1-high and played C3, C1, and C1. Don't think Sayin went to the right side of the concept on 2nd down. Found the crosser on 3rd but Littleton is a sick athlete. Jeez.
Manuel Excel (@colintj.bsky.social)
Shocked Sark threw there. It's 2 Q runs to get the first. What are we doing here buddy.
Manuel Excel (@colintj.bsky.social) reply parent
Will be stronger tests than this but simply going from one playbook to another without transition costs is a very good sign.
Manuel Excel (@colintj.bsky.social)
Has been said but worth repeating that OSU changed up their whole D playbook and looks very comfortable with their calls. Arch obviously puts a cap on what Sark can do but he's a formationing guy deep in his bones and breaking a D that's not coached up to adjust is worth free pts no matter the QB.
Manuel Excel (@colintj.bsky.social)
There's that fin route again, another first.
Manuel Excel (@colintj.bsky.social)
Klatt really isn't on this one, I'm sure they thought they would see a lot more Cone or Vice on Smith but I think every single clip there was just Cover 3
Manuel Excel (@colintj.bsky.social) reply parent
Davis still has a worse pick
Manuel Excel (@colintj.bsky.social)
That's not even close to on time but why is there no juice on the ball either? Swear he's got an arm injury or something.
Manuel Excel (@colintj.bsky.social)
Yeah the game is running Arch enough to put OSU into 1-high. Can hopefully just tell Arch he's getting C3 in dropback and go PAP to get explosives. But there's nothing Texas is doing to scare the OSU D otherwise. Patricia has his guys coached up so far with an all new playbook.
Manuel Excel (@colintj.bsky.social)
QB Sneak hasn't been a cheat code in a minute. Have to have an under center run that plays off it.
Manuel Excel (@colintj.bsky.social)
Arm strength and placement are surprisingly poor. Sayin hardly setting a very high bar but Arch nowhere near Sayin rn.
Manuel Excel (@colintj.bsky.social)
Can see the training wheels on Sayin right there. 3rd and long, Day dials up all hitches. Not getting the first without a missed tackle.
Manuel Excel (@colintj.bsky.social)
🚨COFFE HOUSE STUNT🚨
Manuel Excel (@colintj.bsky.social)
More C3 from OSU on the deep shot. Patricia doing more with his fronts tho. Penny on 2nd down gets a run stop.
Manuel Excel (@colintj.bsky.social)
Think Day likes that Slide RPO in this And Goal like we saw from Sark. He used to absolutely love that fade to pylon route but haven’t seen that in a minute.
Manuel Excel (@colintj.bsky.social)
Just a ton of cheetah motion from Day on these dropbacks. Would guess it’s a big pass tell. Think Texas has mostly just been playing 3 Strong and squeezing space. Sayin hasn’t been able to rip in there.
Manuel Excel (@colintj.bsky.social)
Interesting run scheme from OSU there. Looked like a little fold from the BSG to the front side A.
Manuel Excel (@colintj.bsky.social)
IMO Saying just looks very comfortable even if it’s not perfect. The placement is good, the process seems OK. Think OSU is going to start getting in 11 and letting him rip it a bit.