Sorry to ruin people’s fun, but:
ML Eng. and econometrics. Lot more left-posting than normal. Some hobby-level finance Regrettably degen trading for the next 3 months, im sorry Views dont reflect my employer
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Sorry to ruin people’s fun, but:
As Russia's refining sector is reduced to ash I think defence planners have some interesting question to ask about the security implications of running on fossil fuels for transport. Hitting a nuclear plant is high stakes / escalatory, solar and wind too diffuse but refineries? Game on. #EnergySky
I need to log off because everytime i do i feel awesome, but then so much news happens
I think so? round 2 i guess
Its an unbelievably bad bet lmao
So uhh would they do mexico shit?
Part of me wishes canada had this without the crypto nonsense because people love to lose money
this is like on par with Xi on polymarket
Thiel is running out of them and thats why bitcoin is crashing
hmm maybe going to hit that unfollow
they legit are not ready for the smoke lmao
because thats what want in negotiations so we can slowly build up the industry
No one could ever be gay in catholic school...hang on getting some news
So copper pipe and wire and softwood are back on the menu or what are we doing
Oh for sure but honestly i think even just lowering housing costs significantly might be enough lol
Yup but basically running it through the flat boring parts where the software could work easily and people hate the routes. Not through the mountains
Not actually sure tbh, but either way we should be pursuing industrial policy at this point
I guarantee you we could absolutely find some stuff for workers in there. The trickier routes are still their bread and butter and hard to automate. Plus theres a lot of manual work left to do. Just automate from ontario through the prairies and try to get more shifts overall
Well that and we probably need to build a bunch of green power in alberta so maybe handshake on that
thats how you know the posting ecosystem is healthy
it would have to be labour level bad and well, lets not count that out just yet
Yes precisely
We have our own stupidity but we seem drawn back to reasonableness by looking outward
Yeah this seems like a good way to do government
Hey no issues with that from me. Like split off all the functions into investigation, civil administration via social workers, and remaining cop stuff is probably how i would do it. In canada, try to do like anything that needs swat with the army
Im lowering my expectations pretty massively but yeah, everyone being less armed is a good idea
probably more than like 4 weeks of training is a good start
i would actually love to know what he means
We can get a guy to put some holes in the wall in 6-8 months
Honestly the china version of development does seem weirdly compatible with how a lot of canada used to work tbh
Just need something to point to, to say theyre being unreasonable
Secret woke trump would actually be the funniest outcome and proof of gods existence
No matter what, we would get cheap EVs. And they are desperate to dump some EVs
Maybe, maybe not. But if hey have the euro reception it will be hard not to! And we'll have the factory
For most of it, there shouldnt really be big obstacles? -we are already doing the defence stuff and we can scale that up - we can drop tariffs - the US tariffing itself to armageddon is a good opportunity for advanced manufacturing in NA - we are hitting recession so need to spend money
Doesnt need to be their secrets, literally the knowledge contained in middle managers. I mean this is the china strategy right? Just let people build factories, put your people in them, and then fund competitors
like all of this stuff is extremely feasible, and the federal govt could just do it
Getting BYD to build a factory?
Like power should cost nothing, cars should cost much less, and cross country transit should be extremely easy. Remove all those frictions and build mass timbre apartments as far as the eye can see and we can win the next 10 years
Its amazing the difference that having all the financial decisions being made by the party vs the tech sector makes
Legit do the energy super power stuff and build just a massive corridor across the country with automated rail and huge transmission lines for green power
We legit should do the energy super power thing literally exactly as brookfield would want. Green power as far as we can see, and some kind of pipeline to make alberta happy
I am a fan in that we need some counter leverage against the US and if we can have the first cheap EV plants in NA that would be a massive benefit
-get some buzz on business investment -have advanced manufacturing and defence for nat sec reasons -light a fire under some of our local engineering firms to stop being fuck ups before we build stuff
My plan for saving the canadian economy: -for 90% of things, drop all tariffs on china -negotiate if it means we get BYD factory -reverse-china steal those trade secrets with european firms by co-locating those firms -push our stuff as far up the manufacturing chain as possible
We need some non-descript brown brick building full of our best and brightest instead of hoping it will come from a consulting company
Im not saying its good, just that we are going to spend like a year dicking around before doing anything. Because everyone hates when the govt has someone thinking more than 1 year ahead
Kind of jealous that china has labs of engineers whose whole job is to think of new mega projects everytime the economy slows
market 5-d chess understands this means US growth will be so anemic that the 20 year goes to 0, the 2 year goes to 0 and the 10 year goes to 7. So i guess the opposite of now
for a little bit surely
up until yamnaya and corded ware stuff
I love this because all the evidence we have of early people in europe is they were basically all the same, and were effectively all genocidal for small pockets of land that worked with their agriculture system
Theres a youtube video from economics explained (bad bad bad) about colder climates encouraging cooperation. Anyway you have to immediately ask yourself why it took so long for this cooperation to bear fruit vs literally everywhere else
speak for yourself
I genuinely have no idea what vance except for power. Some of the tech dudes have that in mind. But Vance is not an idealogue and he will do whatever it takes to stay in power
US deliberately told india to import russian oil to keep energy prices low, there was actually regular diplomatic dialogue about it. China on the other hand, is an ally to the russia in the sense that they're helping them in the most expensive way possible
POGG-pilled im afraid to say
i will say, wouldn't love to be pakistan atm
Dawg, we can't be fighting the two biggest countries on earth simultaneously. One of which is still throwing down +7% annually rgdp growth
i would like us to reduce headcount but crucially also be spending more. I don't think we are actually getting good value there
I know the reductions in headcount with the public service aren't super popular, but we did legitimately increase the number of employees by ~38% while the population only increased ~17% and a lot of it was COVID related
franco-canadians in the maritimes getting A LOT of weight
This is how we managed to avoid being in gulf war 2, but also not going full austerity
sitting at the lagrangian point between 3 different and distinct kinds of stupid means we end up with an extremely narrow political spectrum that also manages to be quite adverse to specific brain rot
genuinely, this kind of triangulation has saved us multiple times from dumb shit
actual mortgage payments? well lets not worry about it right now
the awesome news is that home price growth will slow
i get it. its labour day, but thats why i would love some more sports
need more sports
Actually would be a great moment for asserting the strength of a prosecutor and the law tbh.
Another confirmation that Canadian growth is extremely weak, inflation has fallen sharply and yet no more cuts are expected. Fixed income looking pretty compelling here. bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/the-frosty...
Literally precisely the same
its interesting that theyve convinced me hes dead
Looking over at Australia and hoping things go well for southern canada
"Im losing on a high salience issue, lets solve that by making it higher salience" is one of the dumber moves ive seen
Its a great example of how sometimes there are trade offs and sometimes you shrink the possibilities frontier
I guess being out of power for so long has really degraded their ability to do basic bread and butter politics
Is there a time in politics when aggressively agreeing with your adversary has worked
do you think he knows this is just nothing?
FWIW on this specific problem i rounded up some of the commentary in this thread
this is a huge upside!
Probably yes?
look, the long term growth prospects are still bad, but its a massive improvement still
Confused because if trump dies i don't own nearly enough US equities
love a perfect whelm
Just do the trump purges but with the right people this time simple
hey what the fuck is happening
holding your own posts hostage
I think it meets the qualities of selling supplements, trying to justify black inequality, and some optimization nonsense like looksmaxing
yes, i think?
hey why does common law exist again
Not even the state, just like your neighbours or local rich people
hey this is the worst thing ive ever seen
ivermectin in the water supply
Feels like this would be feasible with open street maps and the heights of things from rayshader although its possible it misses trees
Someone ping me when he does the next press conference
so hes already dead for you then?