Matt Waters
@mwwaters.bsky.social
created October 27, 2023
272 followers 280 following 1,152 posts
view profile on Bluesky Posts
Matt Waters (@mwwaters.bsky.social) reply parent
That link talks about a general decline in response and doesn’t address whether response rates suddenly shifted with one group in particular. It’s tough to take the immigrant numbers at face value since the overall job numbers wouldn’t be flat to increasing.
You Might Know Jack (@lessweirdjack.bsky.social) reposted
FSU getting banned by Twitter because they done killed DeBoer
Matt Waters (@mwwaters.bsky.social) reply parent
SSNs being a tool at all kind of brought about the myth of “identity theft.” Not that I will broadcast my SSN, but in the end, if somebody else took out credit in my name using the SSN, why does that involve me? That was a thing done between two entities I had no relationship or contract with.
Matt Waters (@mwwaters.bsky.social) reply parent
Thinking of JD Vance getting news of Trump’s health like Selina Meyer hearing the President was planning on resigning.
Matt Waters (@mwwaters.bsky.social) reply parent
Of course, in criminal justice, the courts have overwhelmingly made elections the one place to unquestionably change things. 1983, FTCA and Bivens are highly limited, while Chevron got struck down.
Matt Waters (@mwwaters.bsky.social) reply parent
The US seemingly has far more legal review of permitting and government spending of various types than other developed countries. In addition to civil service protections, other countries seem to lean more towards elections as the main thing propelling, say, decent transit construction.
Matt Waters (@mwwaters.bsky.social) reply parent
Assuming Powell and others stay on, Trump won’t have a majority of the board during his term (barring Cook firing being successful). The FOMC itself is even weirder. It always includes NY Fed President and rotates other seats. But IOR and a lot of other policy is set by board only.
Matt Waters (@mwwaters.bsky.social) reply parent
I was hoping the $0.001 par value would become interesting.
Matt Waters (@mwwaters.bsky.social) reply parent
Trump tried to project that he didn’t leave peacefully on 1/20/21, but in the end he did. A true commitment to not leaving would have been sitting in the Oval Office at noon until security arrested him. The question is how far he’ll go and whether he’ll “get away with it.” (He didn’t in 21)
Matt Waters (@mwwaters.bsky.social) reply parent
Secretaries of States and other election officials create the ballots. Trump is one mortal human being and, while it’s possible that he could directly order people to commit unquestionable state crimes like B&E and kidnapping, doesn’t mean people with families and lives will follow it.
Matt Waters (@mwwaters.bsky.social) reply parent
28 USC 566(c) may include this under “all necessary assistance,” but that clause seems to be inferior by its preface to the posse comitatus act.
Matt Waters (@mwwaters.bsky.social) reply parent
I think the author or Bessent is just being loose with bills vs notes vs bonds. They meant bills when they said bonds. Bills have a rate floor of the RRP rate up until the SOMA account runs out of repo-able securities.
Matt Waters (@mwwaters.bsky.social) reply parent
A 1 month difference has it equal to a number of other terms. If you have a spike in a month and make that the base for the geometric average, it will look different. And while it may, at best, explain the feelings of voters, it’s wrong to say those feelings were correct.
Matt Waters (@mwwaters.bsky.social) reply parent
Honestly thought it was some UFC/wrestling thing in the oval.
Matt Waters (@mwwaters.bsky.social) reply parent
Matt Waters (@mwwaters.bsky.social) reply parent
@edsbs.bsky.social
Matt Waters (@mwwaters.bsky.social) reply parent
I hope she and the worst person you know found true love.
Matt Waters (@mwwaters.bsky.social) reply parent
As we speak, despite the SC sending it back down to disallow injunctions, class-wide relief is granted by a lower court against the birthright EO. The habeas cases I mentioned (as well as AEA cases outside of NDTX) were done by lower courts. Things aren’t good, but there’s still an effect.
Scott Imberman (@imbernomics.bsky.social) reposted
People have to realize how abnormal this is. It’s extremely rare to see an economist surrounded by other people looking like he’s having a good time.
Matt Waters (@mwwaters.bsky.social) reply parent
Another AEA flight was stayed by the SC in the middle of the night and, well, it didn’t happen. Habeas was granted to noteworthy ICE detainees and they were released. There’s all this ambiguity being abused, but it still matters for what courts say outright in detention or asset seizure.
Matt Waters (@mwwaters.bsky.social) reply parent
However much true it is, the idea that what’s ultimately a racism dial has to be turned just enough by Democrats in order to win feels fundamentally bad.
Matt Waters (@mwwaters.bsky.social) reply parent
Kennedy wasn’t an arch-conservative on social issues to begin with. He voted for the ruling in Casey. Some cases may fundamentally threaten his Congress treats the court, but prospectively saying state law applies to gay marriage is probably not viewed in that way.
Matt Waters (@mwwaters.bsky.social) reply parent
FAST Act has a $320 million liability limit in some cases, not Brightline, which requires insurance up that amount and somehow gets underwriting. I am curious how that underwriting works myself.
Matt Waters (@mwwaters.bsky.social) reply parent
I think a part of it is the debt has perfected security against past or future tort claimants, though this is junior to other debt. Equity is a different story, but it appears that the risk is insurable somehow, up to nine figure from overseas insurers.
Matt Waters (@mwwaters.bsky.social) reply parent
Group Policy Eats Man. Women Inherit The Earth.
Matt Waters (@mwwaters.bsky.social) reply parent
What were his previous comments on the BLS? I saw somewhere he was a “BLS critic.” The comments are un-googleable though because all the results are now about his appointment.
Matt Waters (@mwwaters.bsky.social) reply parent
Oh yeah, definitely. When you boil down a lot of the ultimate roots, it’s kinda based some on showing ID in physical presence, maybe call backs to known numbers and maybe using US mail. All three use some form of physical location and retroactive criminal enforcement.
Matt Waters (@mwwaters.bsky.social) reply parent
I think it depends on whether 4 will grant cert. Push comes to shove, I’ve got a tough time seeing two conservatives doing a published 5-4 decision keeping it for future marriages, with based only on stare decisis.
Matt Waters (@mwwaters.bsky.social) reply parent
Coming from a computer background with its encryption and authentication, it’s odd how much of the law is based on pinkie swears (deeds, liens, etc.).
Matt Waters (@mwwaters.bsky.social) reply parent
Congratulations to the new UF head coach.
Matt Waters (@mwwaters.bsky.social) reply parent
He took 10-15 paragraphs of this when he could have said “white.”
Matt Waters (@mwwaters.bsky.social) reply parent
I’m okay with a reasoned argument for not having any supermajority reqs for law. Internationally, some countries and some don’t. I do think it’s odd to see so many anti-judicial review arguments after bad rulings, when those rulings are *withholding* review.
Matt Waters (@mwwaters.bsky.social) reply parent
Maybe there’s some law of the jungle where people rise up against Congressional laws overriding natural rights. Or a majoritarian system like UK would be better even with that risk, with only law of the jungle constraints. I don’t see the constraints being better with law of the jungle though.
Matt Waters (@mwwaters.bsky.social) reply parent
There’s Federalist Paper 78 plus state courts did review under state constitutions before Marbury. It seems like you have an odd stance with this and BOR limiting rights, but also having no legal avenue to restrict Congressional actions. Without review, Congress can cancel elections legally.
Matt Waters (@mwwaters.bsky.social) reply parent
The anti-BOR arguments were also wrong. Even within the boundaries of Congress’ original powers, Congress could have done trials without due process, star chambers, cruel and unusual punishment, etc. Maybe 9th and 10th are superfluous, but not 1-8.
Matt Waters (@mwwaters.bsky.social) reply parent
Habeas Corpus goes back much further and is ultimately statutory judicial review. The judge overrides the executive’s determination of somebody’s imprisonment based on how the judge reads the law. Constitutional judicial review is reading the constitution as “supreme law of the land.”
Matt Waters (@mwwaters.bsky.social) reply parent
The serving for life part is bad. The no judicial review ideas though are bonkers. Even the UK, with no constraints on parliament’s law, has judges do statutory review of executive actions. But no statutory review means exec only limited by morals or public revolt.
Matt Waters (@mwwaters.bsky.social) reply parent
I first looked to see if the Gregorian Calendar started at zero, but it started in 1582 not 1434.
Matt Waters (@mwwaters.bsky.social) reply parent
I’m not pro-AI at all, but I wonder about the philosophical question: Are my neurons, right now, doing autocomplete? It’s with trillions more “tokens” though at far less energy than AI models.
Matt Waters (@mwwaters.bsky.social) reply parent
It’s hard not to feel a thermostatic reaction when many of its proponents are cheering the idea of all the new theoretical productivity going to capital. If AI is more productive, we want the ideas to be diffuse to not get outsize return on capital, w/ ultimately higher living standards for most.
Matt Waters (@mwwaters.bsky.social) reply parent
The explanations are quite long, with cases linked and referenced in a central table of cases. If I was personally creating the web page once, I would just have static html. But there’s a publishing backend for the CRS lawyers who write the explanations. The constitution itself was folded into that
Matt Waters (@mwwaters.bsky.social) reply parent
“pagination” functions available. If you’re creating a dynamic page which displays from a table with 100,000 entries, the templating language may not take all 100,000 by default. It may take a 100 and then there is a function to change the results to next 100.
Matt Waters (@mwwaters.bsky.social) reply parent
The Explained part missing the same clauses, including latter clauses of Section 8, is what told me it WAS a coding error. As a programmer, I would guess the number of clauses that WERE shown was a round number. I’d guess the page-creating program took only 100 or so items by default, with…
Matt Waters (@mwwaters.bsky.social) reply parent
The original post had the New Deal and FHA in mind, which did have racial discrimination at the time. But nothing being done since the 50s isn’t true. Medicaid doesn’t discriminate on age either. I left out HUD, EITC, and other half-loaf measures, but they also exist.
Matt Waters (@mwwaters.bsky.social) reply parent
I need to pull up the adults per housing unit, but that is higher since 2000. Real support per student for public college was also higher. Near or over 100% of public tuition increase has been due to lower real support per student. There’s some real qualms even if garment rending is bad.
Matt Waters (@mwwaters.bsky.social) reply parent
Medicare and Medicaid, for one.
Matt Waters (@mwwaters.bsky.social) reply parent
Homelessness has gone up but is flat compared to 2007 and lower as a percentage of population compared to 2007. It’s real, but part of the solution is technocratic to get down the cost of building either market rate or government housing. That doesn’t fit in with the revolutionary ideas.
Matt Waters (@mwwaters.bsky.social) reply parent
Then there was the 1960s programs, the ACA (as written, a 100% Medicaid expansion), the expanded ACA subsidies Trump is allowing to expire, even Part D.
Matt Waters (@mwwaters.bsky.social) reply parent
The web page could have been just a collection of static pages, but the explanations part has cross references based on cases which change. The changes could be on for the publishing end to make citations and such easier.
Matt Waters (@mwwaters.bsky.social) reply parent
Part of Section 8 was also missing, starting with allowing Congress to create a Navy I think. Each clause is related to an explanation on the page. So something like leaving in “TOP 50” in a SQL query would have cut it off.
Matt Waters (@mwwaters.bsky.social) reply parent
Excel or Sheets RAND function with hitting F5 to re-randomize should work.
Matt Waters (@mwwaters.bsky.social) reply parent
The one time we really “defeated” inflation was 08-09. In practice, wages don’t go down in nominal terms and more people go out of work when nominal spending on things goes down. Demand going up at a regular rate, increasing both wages and prices, is much better than a 2008-09 demand decrease.
Matt Waters (@mwwaters.bsky.social) reply parent
Elizabeth Warren has said debarking can go up to some people with a criminal record not getting a bank account because of that record, and no other reason. www.banking.senate.gov/newsroom/min...
Matt Waters (@mwwaters.bsky.social) reply parent
In extreme though, it’s pretty unclear where deputizing banks as law enforcement ends exactly. Operation Choke Point may have had crimes done by payday lenders and firearm dealers, but those can also be legal activities and beneficial ownership wasn’t hidden if prosecution was done.
Matt Waters (@mwwaters.bsky.social) reply parent
Juking CPI downward will also reduce Social Security payments compared to good data, as well as generally increase taxes through bracket cutoffs going up less.
Matt Waters (@mwwaters.bsky.social) reply parent
I like the quiet title action in GA called “Quia Timet Against All the World.” law.justia.com/codes/georgi...
Matt Waters (@mwwaters.bsky.social) reply parent
I think Obergefell will be overturned with some equitable reasons for not making it retroactive. I can only see the SC keeping it if 4 votes do not want to overturn it and then it’s quietly kept with denial of cert. If 4 exist to overturn, I don’t think the will exists for 5-4 decision keeping it.
Matt Waters (@mwwaters.bsky.social) reply parent
In some sort of theoretical normal post-Jan-2029 world, the Trump Foundation should ideally see some huge IRS issues.
Matt Waters (@mwwaters.bsky.social) reply parent
I’m very, very confident even this court won’t deny an increase in SC size by ruling. The hypothetical is like other hypotheticals allowed by space and time. But both passing court packing and 5-6 of current justices writing no is extremely unlikely compared to, say, Trump disobeying court orders.
Matt Waters (@mwwaters.bsky.social) reply parent
Yeah, but that would be up to the newly signed in Senators and Representatives, with their blocks, to agree and not lie beforehand. It’s all theoretical. I think either a 200 judge court or Pack the Union would require more public animosity than currently exists.
Matt Waters (@mwwaters.bsky.social) reply parent
The idea in a student paper wasn’t to keep it as a 250 state regime but to quickly pass an amendment rewriting the US constitution as proportionate, amendable, etc. IIRC, I don’t think the paper addressed the DC block-states saying “ha ha, we rule now suckers.”
Matt Waters (@mwwaters.bsky.social) reply parent
I mean, maybe it’s fine in theory to have an exponentially compounding Supreme Court size. But also in theory, we could just rewrite the whole damn thing with 200+ DC states.
Matt Waters (@mwwaters.bsky.social) reply parent
Then the response from Democrats to a 23 person Supreme Court would be around a 40 person Supreme Court. The SC granted class-wide emergency habeas in the middle of the night where 5th circuit did not. Sticking one’s neck out for the middle 3 is rough, but there is a difference.
Matt Waters (@mwwaters.bsky.social) reply parent
I’ve supported court packing when I’ve been angry at the SC, but I don’t see the great way around 10+ Judge Hos and Boves then being added by GOP. Or if everything constitutional is on the table in next trifecta, do the 200+ DC state plan to rewrite the creaky constitution.
Matt Waters (@mwwaters.bsky.social) reply parent
Why would this be any different? Judges wouldn’t be around long before their clock runs out. They filled all the executive branch positions they wanted. Maybe only the crazy US Attorneys would benefit from recess appointments, if Acting shenanigans are not blessed.
Matt Waters (@mwwaters.bsky.social) reply parent
If nothing else, I don’t get how the “all pain” economic model doesn’t backfire electorally. Not just ACA subsidies, but also Part D premiums will go up substantially.
Matt Waters (@mwwaters.bsky.social) reply parent
Article III is, in particular, badly worded. Judges simultaneously given too much (lifetime appt) while in theory too little (jurisdiction stripping, court packing, maybe removing courts like midnight judges). In some sane politics, some amendment would be negotiated.
Matt Waters (@mwwaters.bsky.social) reply parent
A majority of the House for impeachment. A GOP majority in the Senate can scuttle a trial, but a Democratic majority will get the contempt in the open with a trial.
Matt Waters (@mwwaters.bsky.social) reply parent
The fact that Prop 13 basis is inherited (up to a discount of “only” $1 million IIRC) is insane. Landed Gentry. This is on top of no tax on the gains in the house if inherited and estate less than $15 mil/$30 mil.
Matt Waters (@mwwaters.bsky.social) reply parent
Is lack of access to counsel new?
Matt Waters (@mwwaters.bsky.social) reply parent
I have had a thought that MAHA is similar to Dave Ramsey for finances and how the harshness justifies regressive financial policies. The personal responsibility angle is slightly different from a pure Nazi culling. That gives it more staying power.
Matt Waters (@mwwaters.bsky.social) reply parent
There are reasons that we won’t have the doomer scenario of not making it to Nov 2028/Jan 2029 with a relatively regular election. But this story and the Vermont school admin make me question it.
Matt Waters (@mwwaters.bsky.social) reply parent
My belief is the files were edited around BOP’s screw ups after the suicide. A premeditated murder conspiracy involving high turnover BOP guards, based on things and contacts outside the jail…well, I don’t believe that.
Matt Waters (@mwwaters.bsky.social) reply parent
Oh yeah, the terms quoted in the opinion with “100%” make it impossible to “win,” at least if taken as a layperson. Nothing is literally 100% certain.
Matt Waters (@mwwaters.bsky.social) reply parent
It’s like if the contract said “prove car is red” and the arbitrators said “all red cars are Mustangs.” I don’t know, there were other cases cited where arbitrators acted outside of the contract. I don’t know how much “arguable” means any arbitration decision whatsoever.
Matt Waters (@mwwaters.bsky.social) reply parent
From a software engineer’s perspective, the arbitration decision is in fact utterly mystifying. Lindell is a bad person, but I can think of large amounts of data related to an election that are not Internet packets.
Matt Waters (@mwwaters.bsky.social) reply parent
storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.us...
Matt Waters (@mwwaters.bsky.social) reply parent
I’ve got a different response: the general ideas of fraud, such as phishing or wire transfer fraud, wrongly put the onus on the less powerful (with some caveats). Non-KYC crypto can be made illegal. Wire/ACH/Zelle can confirm payee, as UK has done. Non-phishable logins are available.
Matt Waters (@mwwaters.bsky.social) reply parent
Do I didn’t know or just forgot Bill Barr said the SDNY prosecutor, appointed by judges, “stepped down” and then Berman said “no I didn’t.” Barr accused Berman of creating a “public spectacle” and when Berman said he resigned (because Barr appointed his deputy), Barr still falsely said he was fired.
Matt Waters (@mwwaters.bsky.social) reply parent
If any homes or businesses are inherited, up to $15M/$30M of gains are totally tax-free.
Matt Waters (@mwwaters.bsky.social) reply parent
Also BBB extended maybe the second worst provision of the tax code, 199A. You pay lower tax rates as long as you’re a rentier and don’t work for the income. The worst (besides gaming of gift valuations) is the sky-high estate/gift exclusion.
Matt Waters (@mwwaters.bsky.social) reply parent
Erm, meant that to be in reply to the “telephone system” post. I’m also thinking about the prosecution declinations on Purdue and subprime MBS prospectuses. It’s almost odd now how post-Enron prosecutions happened. I guess losses becoming widespread enough actually has things happen.
Matt Waters (@mwwaters.bsky.social) reply parent
On these, the big thing is non-KYCed digital bearer instruments. Obviously crypto/stable coins but also gift cards with digital codes.
Matt Waters (@mwwaters.bsky.social) reply parent
The sheer size of the wires in the SARs according to Wyden changed my mind. I kind of think Glonzo exists in some form now.
Matt Waters (@mwwaters.bsky.social) reply parent
If it happens, I think renumbering or clearly doctoring the files will be badly done and leaked about.
Matt Waters (@mwwaters.bsky.social) reply parent
Thinking a bad thought, of a pro-civil-service-law “history and tradition” argument that Congress didn’t allow black mail carriers to be hired by law in 1810-65. Thinking about this because apparently 1886 for US v Perkins is not close enough historically.
Matt Waters (@mwwaters.bsky.social) reply parent
Besides Trump’s trial balloon popping, these kind of scenarios make me believe truly utter and continuing contempt of the SC won’t happen (as opposed to neener neener contempt Bove has tried). With an SC order in hand, would Fed staff or anyone in gov with guns try to enforce Trump’s order?
Matt Waters (@mwwaters.bsky.social) reply parent
In the history and tradition of the first amendment, light bulbs weren’t invented for a century and candles were dangerous.
Matt Waters (@mwwaters.bsky.social) reply parent
I’ve been kinda surprised about TACO working out, since Trump’s Miller side doesn’t need or care about markets, corporations or rich people. The only real stick they have is in theory removing Congressional support, and that seems unlikely. But I guess Trump cares about their soft power.
Matt Waters (@mwwaters.bsky.social)
There should be a law against assets that are digital bearer token based. The biggest of these is crypto, which has bankrupted banks through scams. But digital gift cards are also cumulatively big. At least they should have low limits per card.
Matt Waters (@mwwaters.bsky.social) reply parent
There’s at least a majority of minority vote with Tesla’s investment, which I assumed wasn’t the case reading the headline.
Matt Waters (@mwwaters.bsky.social)
Putting this in terms of “experts said” is simply the 1984 quote: “The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command.” The 14th says what it says. O’Donnell was born on US soil under US jurisdiction. That’s it. End of story.
Matt Waters (@mwwaters.bsky.social) reply parent
It’s different getting a direct court order to affirmatively spend something and a court order to not detain somebody or send them to a third country. The latter can happen within the contours of space and time, but the administration has also released many people under habeas.
Matt Waters (@mwwaters.bsky.social) reply parent
I wonder if any switches have a similar mechanism of pulling out and moving them. Also, could anything but human action could change the switches’ position?
Matt Waters (@mwwaters.bsky.social) reply parent
So is the contempt proceeding still stated by the MAGA DC Circuit panel?
Matt Waters (@mwwaters.bsky.social) reply parent
Fair. Changing AH Capital Management’s LLC charter from Delaware to Nevada is indeed useless. Do LPs have any say over reincorporating portcos? NV corporate law also appears badly written, at least based on NRS 78.139 and 78.140.
Matt Waters (@mwwaters.bsky.social) reply parent
I believe the portfolio companies have to be incorporated for the expansive small/new business tax credit.
Matt Waters (@mwwaters.bsky.social) reply parent
Occam’s razor may say that the fact it ends 12:00 AM means they did a bad job editing two daily videos together. But who knows if it’s something they didn’t want out, not necessarily murder.
Matt Waters (@mwwaters.bsky.social) reply parent
There wasn’t some huge ring, who all knew each other, and Epstein committed suicide. But the Big Three (or just one of them) did try to blackmail Ralph Nader with prostitutes. Kushner’s relative (his dad? I forget) went through such a blackmail attempt.
Matt Waters (@mwwaters.bsky.social) reply parent
Other replies blamed gerrymandering and voter suppression. I don’t know. A lot of things suck, but it seems like the actual people who voted for the GOP, who voted 3rd party or who didn’t vote are WAY down the list of things to blame for bad things happening, as if they lack agency.