Production at Tesla’s Fremont factory in California is down by 25% from its peak because of demand issues. Survey data shows that U.S. EV buyers are moving away from the Tesla brand because they don’t want to be associated with the political controversy surrounding it.
It’s going to cost me ~$5k to terminate my Tesla lease, but the Rivian R1S is worth it.
Thank you.
Name the first word you think of when hearing the brand name Tesla. If it was Nazi you are not alone.
I assumed that Giga Texas would have had a much-higher share of Tesla production right now. Presumably it's a more-efficient plant. Berlin and Texas are woefully underutilized and are creating spare capacity at Fremont, Shanghai ... with sales trending lower.
Yes, Giga Texas is down 40% from its peak. However, I expect it to get worse.
Barring self driving, I'm not sure what can revive the Tesla EV business, esp. after the new Model Y boost/offset starts to wane in a few months.
The „Model 2“ should launch soon and might as well revive Teslas EV business to some degree as it will likely also bring relevant more utilization to its factories. But personally I don’t think we‘ll get more than an announcement in 2025. In any case, Teslas growth story is dead.
The "affordable" EV that's coming reportedly will be a stripped-down Model Y. That might slow the decline, for a bit. I don't think there is a "Model 2" - at least what we used to think of as an M2 - a small, next-gen EV. That's been shelved.
If that’s the case, it will actually accelerate the decline after maybe a year or two where this might attract a small new class of buyers. But it will mean Tesla won’t compete in the real affordable category for the rest of the decade.
Is there a Model 2? Where are the test mules, the retooling of production lines, cold and hot weather testing? Spy shops from inside the factory?
That's why it's likely to be a stripped-down Model Y. There's already a stripped-down Model 3 in Mexico.
In a healthy company, this chart should be the other way around.
To be fair, 2024 already wasn't excellent for Tesla, they had to cut prices in early 2024 just to sell 1% fewer cars compared to 2023. So it is not only Musk going full MAGA at the end of 2024, but other reasons (old models etc.).
There has been political controversy since late 2022. At the time, many potential Tesla buyers were put off by Elon’s comments about Ukraine, Paul Pelosi, and Dr. Fauci. The article below, published on December 23, 2022, explains these well. www.cnet.com/tech/tesla-d...
Awwwww.
Thanks buddy! As always you’re a great source of invaluable information for potential Tesla investors!
For Q1 I would have expected a bigger dent in the numbers due to Juniper switchover. Was this done nearly seamless without any significant production stops?
Based on DMV VIN data, most Model Y produced at Tesla’s Fremont factory in Q1 2025 were the older design. The new Juniper refresh (shown in red on the chart) only started appearing late in the quarter. Each dot on the chart represents a Model Y vehicle identification number (VIN).
I need to create badges for teslas identifying them as another brand.
And there are better EVs from other companies now
Plus that it's a shit EV
Soon you'll have to change your name to Troy EVlike