imo in a multi-party system he'd probably be in American En Marche but as a result of the weird coalitions that comprise American politics, he's a Dem
Replies
Lakshya is not a Republican. He has said for years that he got into this line of work because he wants to beat Republicans. But Shor, Yglesias et al have convinced him that airless popularism is the way to do it. And “the “numbers.”
aug 26, 2025, 4:16 pm • 18 1 • view
Which is to say, like other quants he has decided that persuasion doesn’t really come from firm left-wing beliefs. I think that’s wrong, but *recent* polling history is mostly on his side.
aug 26, 2025, 4:18 pm • 11 1 • view
Persuasion comes from taking the threats to American well being seriously. Before Trump, that meant tackling climate change and housing, but actually addressing those problems in a serious way would piss off the Democrats’ donor class. Empty aphorisms are so much easier.
aug 26, 2025, 4:29 pm • 2 0 • view
Yeah, recent polling history is just one kind of data. I don’t think it’s useless, but the cottage industry that has sprung up around it - particularly since 2012 when Nate Silver hit the big time - has its own cultish qualities and tunnel vision.
aug 26, 2025, 4:32 pm • 1 0 • view
At this point it’s basically the Department of Self-Fulfilling prophecies.
aug 26, 2025, 4:34 pm • 2 0 • view
I also think Jain's claims here are almost certainly right? No one persuadable cares if she's black. Maybe it's fine right now, messaging is mostly for the base. But not one single person changing their mind about Trump because of this cares that she's black
aug 26, 2025, 4:02 pm • 2 0 • view
One statement isn't going to do the trick on its own but I think it's worthwhile to build up a narrative of "Trump is firing all the black people he can because they're black". Most people aren't down with open racism and the ones who are are already solid Rs
aug 26, 2025, 4:25 pm • 5 0 • view
Yeah I think there is a slow burn strategy that can work, and is important.
aug 26, 2025, 4:27 pm • 0 0 • view
To be clear, as a member of the base I do care and think it's almost certainly because Trump is a racist on top of everything else. It's bad!
aug 26, 2025, 4:03 pm • 0 0 • view
A lot of Dem criticism comes from the knowledge that Republicans are a lost cause or at the very least unreachable. Soft bigotry of low expectations that means certain pundits will just spend all their time criticizing Dems because sometimes Dem listen, and it distorts what should be criticized.
aug 26, 2025, 3:51 pm • 7 1 • view
like, he is probably a Blue Dog/New Democrat and that's fine probably not a healthy thing for people to be a part of a party that they diverge with on like 60% of issues though
aug 26, 2025, 3:36 pm • 91 2 • view
now, David Shor? That's a republican.
aug 26, 2025, 3:37 pm • 5 0 • view
David Shor starts the Bündnis David Shor
aug 26, 2025, 3:39 pm • 4 0 • view
I’m not sure it’s that as much as he believes that there should be a much larger block of Blue Dogs without understanding that the coalition as it is currently constructed and how politics has developed just doesn’t allow for that
aug 26, 2025, 3:41 pm • 6 0 • view
The thing is most new dems are now normie libs!
aug 26, 2025, 3:49 pm • 25 0 • view
right but these guys are like IJN holdouts who think they can return to the days of Clintonite consensus
aug 26, 2025, 3:49 pm • 24 0 • view
Also more importantly more negatively polarized against normie lib democrats than actual republicans
aug 26, 2025, 3:50 pm • 27 0 • view
yes (there is a reason that he is basically indirectly complaining about how the critique jeffries there is based on race)
aug 26, 2025, 3:51 pm • 13 0 • view
Like the issue with a lot of centrist dems of a certain flavor is they see other democrats as their main opponent to be broken, not coalition partners to work with
aug 26, 2025, 3:51 pm • 41 4 • view
We see the same with a lot of supposed leftists. Nobody hates Republicans to the extent they need to.
aug 26, 2025, 3:51 pm • 3 0 • view
the difference is that one of these groups is a marginal force in the party and one of these groups is not
aug 26, 2025, 3:54 pm • 2 0 • view
Yet that marginal force keeps costing elections.
aug 26, 2025, 3:56 pm • 0 0 • view
Found one.
aug 26, 2025, 3:58 pm • 1 0 • view
You found a Black person who's been repeatedly abused by the kind of people I'm talkin' about so well spotted I guess.
aug 26, 2025, 3:58 pm • 1 0 • view
Definitely don't see this dynamic anywhere else on the left spectrum.
aug 26, 2025, 3:58 pm • 0 0 • view
And this usually ends up with "centrists against coalitions" mixed in pretty commonly anti-black racism brainworms
aug 26, 2025, 3:53 pm • 16 1 • view
Yeah. Like, I think they've polled themselves into Americans being center-right lazy douchebags (not ENTIRELY wrong) and have decided the goal is to appeal to them in that way, but there's actually no way to do that.
aug 26, 2025, 3:54 pm • 3 0 • view
Difficult for me not to see what your describing as stealth republicans
aug 26, 2025, 4:05 pm • 1 0 • view
I think Jain might be too distracted by his own numbers to even HAVE an ideology right now.
aug 26, 2025, 3:37 pm • 44 1 • view
i always got the sense that he did not really have beliefs per se, just an affective dislike for anything that seems "radical" and a positivist attitude towards politics. "i'm for whatever the public says they want to see"
aug 26, 2025, 3:40 pm • 102 2 • view
One thing about the popularists is like There's such a thing as "X is good but the public won't go for it," believe me I am keenly aware of this! But then it's a not so subtle slide from that to "no one is allowed to have a radical imagination of better things"
aug 26, 2025, 3:48 pm • 15 1 • view
It’s all very odd. I remember the Iraq War, so I realize that the people can want bad things and I understand that I, as a citizen of a republic, have an obligation to not just outsource my judgement to the mob.
aug 26, 2025, 3:52 pm • 10 0 • view
In fact democracy collapses in on itself if people understand themselves to be obliged to *agree* with the majority! This is also why we have freedom of speech!!
aug 26, 2025, 3:59 pm • 8 1 • view
In his defense he seems to care about healthcare and healthcare only
aug 26, 2025, 3:44 pm • 17 0 • view
yeah basically the vibe seems like "as long as dems can hold the line on healthcare they can move to the center on everything else and i'm not bothered"
aug 26, 2025, 3:47 pm • 52 2 • view
That's the other problem with letting wonks try to be omnipolicy pundits - they can ultimately still only care about what they're wonks about
aug 26, 2025, 3:49 pm • 16 0 • view
Definitely got the impression he typically posts here to go "see? SEE? The left is insane and I'm just doing facts"
aug 30, 2025, 7:08 pm • 1 0 • view
this is yglesias's actual position as well.
aug 26, 2025, 8:13 pm • 3 0 • view
Housing too.
aug 26, 2025, 8:18 pm • 1 0 • view
His lack of concern about immigration crackdowns, anti-H1B rhetoric, dismantling universities etc. given his Desi background is pretty unfortunate.
aug 26, 2025, 4:18 pm • 6 0 • view
he should care about universities because he’s a lecturer, but everything else nah India is far too big of a country for people to have sympathy like that
aug 26, 2025, 4:33 pm • 3 0 • view
WHO THE FUCK LIKES THIS HEALTHCARE SITUATION?!
aug 26, 2025, 4:31 pm • 0 0 • view
The thing I've noticed about a lot of poll-first types is that they grant the American voter a full-formed theory of mind, and a totally inability to ever change their beliefs on a subject. Neither of which is true!
aug 26, 2025, 3:48 pm • 5 0 • view
Yeah and like...idk. It's a very strange thing because in an interpersonal sense, he doesn't seem to actually have big conservative commitments in his values, but he's just actively resentful of people having ideas.
aug 26, 2025, 3:42 pm • 17 1 • view
It's because he's a STEMcel with no appreciation of rhetoric or values, only numbers.
aug 26, 2025, 4:06 pm • 25 2 • view
I'd be more open to that idea if there was notable scientific rigor in his empirical work, he's very much done the same immediate move to punditry where it's very hard to tell whether the numbers motivate the takes or the other way around. (See the split ticket WAR criticisms)
aug 26, 2025, 4:10 pm • 6 0 • view
This is pretty accurate. Classic "miss the forest for the trees" spherical chickens numbers guy.
aug 26, 2025, 4:27 pm • 1 0 • view
Yep, Jain has one of the worst cases of engineer/comp sci-brain I’ve ever seen. Really comes out when he talks about unions.
aug 26, 2025, 4:11 pm • 8 0 • view
It's the xkcd of the engineer trying to learn the stock market because he understands numbers and instantly losing all of his money. Except in this case he instantly contributes to the failures of the Democratic Party
aug 26, 2025, 5:25 pm • 0 0 • view
there was some line from him that's like literally "i am a democrat because a family member needs health insurance." which hey, worse reasons, but also he should shut the fuck up and stop telling people his dumbass republican priorities
aug 26, 2025, 4:08 pm • 4 0 • view
on the other hand he's not wrong that Jeffries' statement sucks
aug 26, 2025, 3:46 pm • 4 0 • view
It sucks because it's a statement and not a story. It's bland and doesn't really offer a narrative. That's the issue with it. Not that it mentions that the Governor fired is Black.
aug 26, 2025, 3:52 pm • 4 0 • view
He’s also quite anti-union too, which I think supports what you’re saying.
aug 26, 2025, 4:33 pm • 0 0 • view
Is en marches in the American context Bloomberg-ism/acela democrats/technocrats?
aug 26, 2025, 3:39 pm • 1 0 • view
yes! it is very clear if you read his post that he's socially liberal and for healthcare coverage but more or less in line with the old New Democratic consensus on politics
aug 26, 2025, 3:42 pm • 10 0 • view
It's interesting to me that these sort of anachronism exist. The old New Dem consensus died *for a reason.*
aug 26, 2025, 3:46 pm • 6 0 • view
man, you know we cannot let political ideologies die in this country, we still got Dixiecrats and Cold Warriors running around in here, and let's not even talk about the Lost Causers, lol
aug 26, 2025, 3:52 pm • 3 0 • view
I think you’re right, he’s a dem. Those folks are Dems now, if they weren’t always (how can we forget the Bloomberg in the democratic primary American Samoa experience?)
aug 26, 2025, 3:45 pm • 3 0 • view
Many such cases
aug 26, 2025, 3:58 pm • 5 0 • view