My analysis suggests that a conservative estimate of the 9M729’s characteristics, particularly the size of its fuel tank, indicates a range of 1,400 to 1,700 kilometers, well above the 500-kilometer limit. 4/7
Replies
This analysis is robust. In fact, the only way the missile’s range would remain below the 500-kilometer threshold is if it carried a very small fuel tank relative to its overall size and/or if its efficient turbofan engine were replaced with a much less efficient turbojet. 5/7
aug 10, 2025, 10:00 am • 40 2 • view
Russia has not credibly demonstrated that either of these conditions applies. Therefore, the only prudent conclusion is that the missile’s range greatly exceeds the INF limits. 6/7
aug 10, 2025, 10:00 am • 55 2 • view
The U.S. decision to withdraw from the INF Treaty in 2019, after years of Russian noncompliance, was therefore entirely correct. Likewise, refusing to engage with Russia on its moratorium proposal has been the only reasonable course of action. 7/7
aug 10, 2025, 10:00 am • 65 3 • view