1️⃣ Europe at a Crossroads Three years after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Europe faces a stark choice: build a stronger defence or risk being unprepared for future conflicts. A thread and article on @tochnyi on why this moment is crucial for European security. 🧵
2️⃣ Leaders from Europe & beyond met in Kyiv to reaffirm support for Ukraine. Meanwhile, President Macron visited the WH and stressed that any negotiations must include Ukraine & avoid giving Russia a victory. But a surprising US vote at the UN signals shifting global dynamics.
3️⃣ For decades, Europe relied on the US-led NATO umbrella. But Trump’s signals of disengagement mean Europe must prepare for a future where American support is no longer unconditional. Europe's response will send a message to Beijing about Taiwan & the Indo-Pacific.
4️⃣ Denmark’s PM called for European nations to increase defence spending above NATO’s 2% GDP guideline potentially to 3% or more. A major shift is needed to modernize forces & increase readiness. Europe must focus on 5 key areas of defence preparedness. Let’s break them down.
5️⃣If the U.S. reduces military aid, Europe must fill the gap. This means doubling annual bilateral contributions & exploring EU bonds to distribute costs. This should be a priority even if the US support would be only reduced, since it is an investment for Europe's security.
6️⃣ Europe relies heavily on U.S. systems like Patriots. More investment is needed in SAMP-T, IRIS-T, and CAMM systems. A significant increase in the production of these systems is mandatory. In addition, Europe could seek cooperation with South Korea, which has capable systems.
7️⃣ Europe must develop long-range cruise and ballistic missiles to strengthen deterrence. Over-reliance on U.S. systems like HARM is unsustainable. In addition, also air-to-air missile platforms need to be procured within Europe to increase the resilience of the Armed Forces.
8️⃣Current production levels of artillery shells, ATGMs & other key munitions are insufficient for a prolonged conflict. Manufacturing & logistics must scale up urgently. This has been demonstrated to be a key also by Russia which used most of its past Soviet stockpile.
9️⃣ Standing armies alone aren’t enough. Europe must expand reserve forces & modernize training programs to sustain a prolonged engagement if necessary. Europe needs a backbone of troops which can be mobilised to support the professional army, which also needs expansion.
🔟 Europe’s choices now will shape global stability. A weak response emboldens the “Axis of Tyranny.”The time for diplomatic posturing is over. Europe must take concrete action to reform its defence strategy or risk being unprepared for future threats.
1️⃣1️⃣ If you enjoyed the thread continue in the full article on @tochnyi.info website link below: tochnyi.info/2025/02/euro...