#Climate and #ocean question - Is the increased Earth Energy Imbalance partly because there is more ocean to absorb the heat? (Apologies if we covered this already.)
Replies
@jim27182.bsky.social Thoughts?
aug 22, 2025, 8:48 pm • 0 0 • view
Atmospheric scientists measure UV in, IR out, what happens at TOA, make a calculation. This is incomplete. Oceans have absorbed 93%of GHG energy for last ~300yrs, clouds or no clouds. There's the energy imbalance. With ⬆️ stratification, ⬇️ sequestration to depth, that energy is now ➡️atmosphere.
aug 22, 2025, 10:04 pm • 2 1 • view
Would the oceans be able to absorb even more energy as they expand, and therefore increase the EEI further too?
aug 22, 2025, 10:11 pm • 1 0 • view
Think of the oceans as one big capacitor/battery of stored energy. Now, think of it as discharging that energy back to atmosphere. That's what's happening.
aug 22, 2025, 10:19 pm • 2 0 • view
Sorry Jim, I mistakenly thought I was still trying to get my question so that John understood it.
aug 22, 2025, 10:27 pm • 0 0 • view
*sigh... Yes John, I get that. I'll try again.... Does a larger battery (ocean) hold more energy, therefore lessening the amount radiating back into space? AND, if that's the case, would this contribute to a larger EEI? The answer is YES. NO? If so, who's done the math? @climatecasino.net ?
aug 22, 2025, 10:26 pm • 0 0 • view
Sea level rise is caused largely due to reduction in the density of our surface waters because of increasing temperature so the "battery" size is not changing except from the water previously stored underground or frozen. I don't know what the ratio between thermal expansion versus added H2O is?
aug 23, 2025, 12:24 am • 0 0 • view
I have this person previously blocked
aug 23, 2025, 12:41 am • 4 0 • view
which one? I've lost track after two people. How do y'all manage with the bigger accounts?
aug 23, 2025, 1:51 am • 3 0 • view
To a point. That's more a surface process. Mesoscale eddies transfer energy (& CO2) to depth. So, more energy can be stored. Eventually, thermodynamic constraints will ⬇️ energy absorbed. (~ to warmer waters hold less gases, so outgassing occurs). At some point, this,stored ocean energy ➡️atm.
aug 22, 2025, 10:18 pm • 2 0 • view
If the oceans hold, what - 97% of, GHG energy excess(?), as the surface area grows do they therefore hold even more energy? If a larger ocean surface can hold more energy, does tjhat contribute to a growing EEI?
aug 22, 2025, 10:22 pm • 1 0 • view
I haven't really looked into what the sea level rise to ocean surface area ratio might be, but I doubt it is significant in terms of heat or CO2 transfer between the atmosphere and water.
aug 22, 2025, 10:36 pm • 1 0 • view
Maybe someone has done the math. The question is - does the larger volume of ocean water's increased heat uptake contribute to the imbalance of incoming solar radiation : outgoing heat. This imbalance is known as EEI. Why is EEI increasing? Many say b/c less aerosols. Is it larger oceans too?
aug 22, 2025, 10:44 pm • 2 0 • view
I appreciate your curiosity, but please keep in mind that our active climate scientists also are curious about stuff like this. I'm confident that aerosol gurus like team members in people like @hausfath.bsky.social and @climateofgavin.bsky.social research groups have considered that.
aug 22, 2025, 10:53 pm • 1 0 • view
But let's just do some BOE test calc: 1E6 sq km body of water has sea level rise of 50 cm over last 50 years. Being generous that SLR increases water coverage of land by 1 m. That makes new water body 1,001 instead of 1,000 by 1,000 so goes from 1E6 to 1.002E6 sq km. Could be sig., but I doubt it.
aug 22, 2025, 10:53 pm • 0 0 • view
Putting aside that SLR differs due to bathymetry, coastal features, sfc area, westward intensification, differing regional thermal expansion, land ice melt input etc, one can do a rough estimate of avg SLR & thus volume⬆️. This can lead to estimates of potential extra sensible heat storage in oceans.
aug 22, 2025, 11:23 pm • 0 0 • view
thx for area calc. can you do volume?
aug 22, 2025, 10:55 pm • 0 0 • view
cool! if you hear or see anything that addresses the issue, tag me please.
aug 22, 2025, 10:54 pm • 1 0 • view
Cool!
aug 22, 2025, 11:51 pm • 0 0 • view
EEI ⬆️ bc we continue to burn FF & that stored ocean energy is fluxing to atmosphere. This is where the atmospheric scientists go wrong. They don't take oceans into account. They see the EEI ⬆️, wonder why. If they included oceans in their estimates, their estimates would be better.
aug 22, 2025, 11:16 pm • 1 0 • view
Oh never mind, you don't trust our climate modelers it seems which means this isn't a convo for me.
aug 22, 2025, 11:18 pm • 1 0 • view
Just bc someone challenges methodology and assessments does not mean that person is to be dismissed. That's how science works. We challenge, argue, debate. But it's done to improve the science. I have attended some conferences where it got really heated!
aug 22, 2025, 11:31 pm • 2 0 • view
Um, I am pointing out problems with what they do. I'm a now retired oceanographer who did loads of modeling, loads of heat budgets for arctic ocean, calculating diffusivity coefficients. I am not adverse to models. By pointing out problems, areas for improvement, this makes the science better.
aug 22, 2025, 11:28 pm • 0 0 • view
Am I really communicating so opaquely that you think I don't trust the climate modellers? I asked a question in umpteen different ways to which not a single respondent has been able to understand. How much more energy does a risen ocean hold, and if it does hold more as it rises, does that...
aug 22, 2025, 11:24 pm • 1 0 • view
According to estimates that atmospheric scientists have made, aerosol reduction results in atmosphere warming by 0.42 C over 100 years. Aerosol, though a factor, is not main factor. Given that specific heat of water is 4x > than air, ⬇️ aerosol will have very little, if any, impact on ocean temps. 1.
aug 22, 2025, 11:01 pm • 1 0 • view
Biggest impact will be observed right at air-water interface. (Why we measure air temps at 2m height, not right on surface). It still comes down to stored energy in ocean which is now at ~5.4E23 J (>=540 ZJ. 1 Z is 10^21). As long as GHG are burned, this will⬆️. We are measuring heat fluxes .... 2.
aug 22, 2025, 11:06 pm • 2 0 • view
From oceans to atmosphere. The oceans have been saving our bacon. No longer. That energy debit is being repaid, called in. EEI is in the oceans. Oceans are actual driver of climate. 3/3
aug 22, 2025, 11:08 pm • 1 0 • view
Yes, it’s a know positive feedback loop in climate science. Warming causes ice to melt, increasing the absorption of heat and causing further warming.
aug 22, 2025, 9:19 pm • 0 0 • view
yes. but not so much the known effect of albedo loss with melting ice, but the total volume of oceans while their levels rise.
aug 22, 2025, 9:30 pm • 1 0 • view
Not sure there are articles on this, but the big picture is clear: roads, forests, and oceans have low albedo; plains, deserts, and beaches reflect more sunlight. As sea levels rise, land gives way to ocean - with very low albedo - mechanically lowering Earth's albedo and amplifying warming.
aug 22, 2025, 9:44 pm • 0 0 • view
Thanks John. Yes, I get all that. And, we generally talk about total global warming. I'm wondering specifically about the expanding thermal mass of oceans that result from both warming and melting ice, and how much are the growing oceans contributing to, specifically, Earth Energy Imbalance.
aug 22, 2025, 9:52 pm • 0 0 • view
We know that thermal expansion accounts for roughly a third of sea level rise since 2004. sealevel.nasa.gov/understandin...
aug 22, 2025, 10:01 pm • 1 0 • view
There are basically three leading causes of sea level rise: thermal expansion, melting of land-based ice, and extraction of land-based water (aquifers etc.) sealevel.nasa.gov/faq/12/what-...
aug 22, 2025, 10:03 pm • 1 0 • view
It’s a web of positive feedback loops around the water cycle, which basically, intrinsically constitute climate change.
aug 22, 2025, 10:08 pm • 1 0 • view
Yes. I'm wondering specifically about total volume of water in the oceans increasing, and how much more energy they store and will store as a result, thusly increasing the EEI, potentially. I regret asking the question now because I'm sensing an inability on my part to communicate clearly.
aug 22, 2025, 10:13 pm • 1 0 • view
The ocean averages 3800 meters in depth. Sea level has risen a 10-30 cm. So no, it's not CAUSING energy imbalance. It does absorb 90%of imbalance though.
aug 22, 2025, 11:55 pm • 0 0 • view
why the all caps Bob? did i ask if it was causing EEI? no i asked if the expanding mass and volume of oceans holds ever more heat and therefore may be CONTRIBUTING to widening EEI.
aug 22, 2025, 11:58 pm • 1 0 • view
I’m autistic, understanding people is really difficult. I have been trying to answer the question and feel that I understand only now. It seemed broad and general, and I now see it as very specific and quantitative.
aug 22, 2025, 10:16 pm • 2 0 • view
It would be nice to quantify, and it’s probably relatively straightforward as we have both super accurate data and great models for sea level rise and albedo.
aug 22, 2025, 9:46 pm • 1 0 • view
*known
aug 22, 2025, 9:32 pm • 1 0 • view