Imagine how different the political world would be if Dem ad makers were spending money trying to move the overall needle now.
Replies
They really need to oust Ken Martin. He hasn’t done anything.
aug 23, 2025, 8:14 pm • 0 0 • view
That is what they have been doing!!! That was the whole point of breaking quorom. You want it to like paid ads. Not what actually moves people.
aug 23, 2025, 7:49 pm • 1 0 • view
I agree with you on quorum and on Newsom. I also agree so-called earned media and organic engagement is more powerful than paid ads. I still think that paid ads are a tool in the toolbox — as we can see because Trump is running them! On YouTube for ex! — and it’s a mistake for us to wait on them.
aug 23, 2025, 7:53 pm • 2 0 • view
I believe in the Malchow strategy on paid: 365-day persuasion effort, hung around news events, with the goal to boost issues that help us, boost the Democratic brand and weaken the GOP brand.
aug 23, 2025, 7:54 pm • 2 0 • view
I post about this not to be a hater but because I think most of the engaged political public doesn’t know that there is a decision being made here, and doesn’t know it is being made based on (what I believe is) bad data. People can come to their own conclusions once they know what’s happening.
aug 23, 2025, 7:55 pm • 1 0 • view
Respectfully, Eric, it seems like you may be too eager to dismiss all of the best science we have on this, both public and proprietary/private. As someone who actually runs ad experiments both privately and publicly… I think you may be over-estimating effect sizes of ads.
aug 23, 2025, 7:59 pm • 0 0 • view
Thank you for this respectful response. Yes, the average effect sizes of ads are small and on *average* decay effect studies show that all effects fade after a few weeks. But as Elliott Morris has discussed obliquely recently, heterogeneity is quite large and there can be hidden nonlinear effects.
aug 23, 2025, 8:06 pm • 0 1 • view
One thing to remember is that in our current media enviro, you or I might never actually encounter any ads, directly (I’m not in CA), 2nd-hand if not shared by a member of my network who was exposed, or via media. I shall take a wait-and-see approach (more-so I am curious what their polling says).
aug 23, 2025, 8:20 pm • 1 0 • view
Yes! I have to run right now but can we put a pin in this and perhaps come back to it? I do want some feedback from ad experts on this- I think there is leverage here we may be leaving on the table. Appreciate the response.
aug 23, 2025, 8:32 pm • 1 0 • view
also two-step flow can apply for ads as well as news
aug 23, 2025, 9:06 pm • 1 0 • view
And imagine quantifying all the earned media
aug 23, 2025, 8:50 pm • 1 0 • view