1. As Trump heads to the region, Israel faces a massive bipartisan crisis in its relationship with the U.S. There is a way out, but it requires ending the war, getting the hostages out, pursuing normalization and a Palestinian state. Short of that, the relationship may never be the same.
2. Starting with the Oslo Accords, the U.S. & Israel had their disagreements but were ultimately aligned both on regional security issues (Iran, Syria, Lebanon, US security assistance) & on the Palestinians and the objective of peace. That remained the case until Netanyahu’s election in 2009.
3. With Israel’s rightward shift on the Palestinians you have seen an increasing gap with Democrats. You saw it with disagreements with Obama that ultimately ended with UNSCR 2234 on settlements.
4. You’ve seen it with Biden with disagreements on humanitarian aid to Gaza, and Executive Order on Settler Violence, and even more so with the opinion of Democratic voters of whom only 33% now have a favorable opinion of Israel.
5. Yet despite it all, on security Democrats and Israel have stayed largely aligned. There was the whole disagreement around the JCPOA but Obama still approved billions for iron Dome and a new ten year MOU for nearly $40 billion for Israel.
6. Biden sent aircraft carriers to in the aftermath of October 7th and deterred Iran. We worked together to defeat two Iranian missile attacks on Israel. Stood by Israel as it conducted operations against Hezbollah and provided a $14 billion supplemental for security assistance after October 7th.
7. As for Republicans, Netanyahu and Dermer have for years now been putting all their chips in with the Republicans party and burning bridges with democrats. Their bet has been that Republicans will side with Israel both on security and the Palestinians. It turns out it was a bad bet.
8. Trump’s second term policy towards Israel and the middle east is drifting away from traditional Republican hawkishness and religious conservatism support for Israel’s security and towards isolationism and transactionlism as it is in much of the rest of the world.
9. He cut his own deal with the Houthis to stop attacks in the Red Sea. negotiating his own deal with Iran. talking about decoupling the U.S.-Saudi deals from Israel-Saudi normalizing. He is going to the Gulf to conduct business while avoiding the security headache of Israel.
10. We also have a new MOU that needs to be negotiated for Israel’s security assistance as the current one expires in 2028. Does anyone believe Trump is going to give the Israelis what he would see as this massive freebee without significant concessions - much more than what Obama asked for.
11. Still Trump isn’t really pushing too much on the Palestinian issue and is giving the Israelis free rein in the West Bank while pushing a Gaza plan that displaces millions of Palestinians. It’s the near exact opposite of where Democrats have been.
Netanyahu has been a card carrying member of the face eating leopard part for a long time. It was just a matter of time.
The Talmud says, "Prophecy was given to fools..." Nevertheless, no identifiable vectors in Israeli society and politics lead toward those goals in the foreseeable future. Demographic and societal changes in both countries have changed the relationship and will probably continue to do so.
Interesting take. How much oil does Israel have? Enough said.
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the supporters of Hamas (Quatar) just gave him a plane