I study how democracies die & how people fight back. NYT bestseller. UCSD Prof. NAS member. Seen on CNN, MSNBC, WaPo. NYTimes, NYorker. http://barbarafwalter.com
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I’ll be interviewing General Mark Milley next month at a fundraising event hosted by life science companies. I’m collecting smart, thought-provoking questions. What would you ask him? Also listen to his amazing 2022 Speech at West Point here: www.youtube.com/watch?v=8PEU...
Quick getaway to the Eastern Sierras. Nature really does heal.
Imagine if every media company said no. It would immediately pull the curtain back on Trump. Why are they caving so easily???
#1 business podcast today. Glad business leaders are paying attention.
Our conversation just dropped. Here it is:
I contributed a few thoughts to this Politico piece on America’s rising political violence.
Yes I do. Democrats are allowing MAGA to control the narrative and this is a contest over information.
It's always interesting to talk with Ian Masters. Listen to our interview here: soundcloud.com/user-8304426...
Go Brazil! Showing our Supreme Court how to defend democracy.
Good Question. I'm not advocating censoring speech. Let people put whatever content they want on the internet. I'm advocating regulating the algorithms that disproportionately favor the more attention-grabbing content, which also tends to be the most divisive, incendiary material.
Been talking non-stop with the media about the Charlie Kirk murder. This is one question I kept getting asked:
I’ll be on Chris Hayes (and also Kaitlan Collins) tonight to discuss the shooting of Charlie Kirk and what it reveals about rising political violence in the United States. I wish my expertise were obsolete.
No showers. No phones. Best vacation I've had in years.
I'm back. The simpler life got, the better it felt.
Every clash you see today - from Gaza to a barroom brawl - likely comes from the same ancient circuitry.
Friday fun rec: Just finished reading this and loved it! My friend Mary said it reminded her of me. Ha!
The Democratic Party clings to its old guard and its big donors. But voters are hungry for change. You can bring in new voters or you can cash the checks. You can’t do both.
Here’s why Democrats should get more comfortable talking dirty. #democracy
I love reading about the creative processes of really creative people. I'll start posting my favorite books, but in the meantime...start with the magical "Painting With John" on Hulu and HBO Max. You're welcome.
Re-upping this because this is exactly what Trump will do before 2028.
There's something that scares me more than political violence and you can read about it here:
Want to know what it FEELS like to live in a rapidly emerging right-wing authoritarian regime? This took my breath away: www.netflix.com/title/82073569
Toppling a tyrant is easier than we think...the last in the series on emperors with no clothes.
A friend just said that I’m “Civil War Barbie” and I kinda couldn’t disagree. Also…this is how I read when it’s bright out.
I’m not hoping for a big disaster, but there are silver linings to them that we should know about.
Here’s why dictators hate hurricanes. #3 in the series on information wars.
Trump would do the same, and will, if he needs to.
@stephenmarche.bsky.social and I wrote books on a potential civil war in the US at the same time. This was our first podcast together and boy was it fun.
New post just dropped. It's about how strongmen aren’t really strong. They just want you to think they are.
Trump may suspect Putin is playing him. But the deeper con is this: he still thinks he’s the smartest guy in the room.
Thank you! Love the suggestions.
I’ve always assigned lots of writing in my classes. Writing forced students to read, think, and make arguments. But this year I’m thinking of something different: 100% Socratic method. No papers. Just discussion. Grade based entirely on participation. Am I crazy?
A friend said last night that Trump is negging America and America is responding like an insecure teenage girl. After I looked up the word I thought: yup.
Power doesn’t always come through force. It comes through perception. Autocrats know this and are playing a hidden game over information. Today I’m launching a 5-part series on my Substack explaining how that game works and what to do about it. Happy reading.
In honor of Canada Day: an article about why Parliamentary systems outperform Presidential systems in many ways. Oh Canada, thank you for being a lovely neighbor and a quiet example of how democracy can actually work!
Today I’m tired and need to give my brain a break. See you Monday.
My book club: middle-aged professional women in San Diego. All moderate Democrats. 1st question last night: “What do you think of Mamdani’s win?” The response: “Hell yes!!!” Grassroots are shifting and the Democratic Party - still stuck on the old establishment - better catch up fast.
Thank you!
No, it's too early for that. But I do think war benefits Trump just as it benefits Netanyahu (at least in the short-term). I'm writing an article about that now - will be up on my substack shortly: substack.com/@barbarafwal...
The difference is that Germany, Japan, Australia, Canada, and South Korea have both the fissile material and the technological know-how to build nuclear weapons and sophisticated delivery systems quickly and easily. The countries above could do it but it would not be easy and would take some time.
What stops countries like Germany, Japan, South Korea, Canada, & Australia from building nukes? Trust in the U.S. When that breaks, they build their own bombs. That’s how nuclear proliferation takes off. Trump is giving both our allies and our enemies every reason to go nuclear. WHY? WHY? WHY?
Bombing a country to stop nukes and failing? That’s the fastest way to convince them and everyone else to go nuclear pronto.
Leaders always think regime change will be quick and clean. It almost never is. What actually happens? Years of war, instability, and a government that’s usually no better than the last. And yet we keep doing it expecting different results.
Been reading Bradbury's advice on writing. Favorite line: “You must never think at the typewriter - you must feel.” Yes.
There are 3 big reasons why political violence tends to increase and America has all of them.
Re-upping this thread because we are watching ICE be Trump’s personal secret police in real time.
But what if those same women marched day after day after day for a sustained period of time. That's what happened in Egypt in 2011 and it only took a few weeks for Mubarak to resign.
I kept coming back to the same question: why kill Democratic lawmakers when you already run the show?
Fog’s gone, sun’s back, and the fried egg flowers are blooming. Summer in San Diego.
Another day, another attempt to make sense of what’s happening. Newsletter’s up.
Feels weirdly calm right now. Like that eerie yellow sky before a storm. Or the start of a game of chicken; both sides staring each other down, waiting to see who flinches. My gut says Trump backs down for now after seeing all the protests. But this isn’t over.
Excellent start!
Please join me @velshimsnbc.bsky.social 10a-1p w/ @barbarafwalter.com Elizabeth Goitein @reed.senate.gov @walshfreedom.bsky.social @michellegoldberg.bsky.social #Velshi
I would say it is at about a +3 but could easily decline further.
Yes. I just worry that by then it will be too late.
This weekend will reveal lots of important information: about America's willingness to defend democracy and about how far Trump and his allies are willing to go to break it. But what they don't realize is that the harsher they are, the more the protests will grow.
Trump wants you to think protesters are the enemy. But peaceful protest is a core democratic right. When he says “threat,” say “freedom.” When he says “enemy,” say “American.” Protesters aren’t the danger, they’re proof democracy still works.
I had something to say about Trump's decision to send in the military against protesters in LA. See below @NYTimes. #ICEProtests
Launching my new Substack today: Here Be Dragons: Warning Signs from the Edges of Democracy. First piece is up.
Plato's observation is a foregone conclusion since no political system stays the same forever. But the US was the longest-standing democracy and is currently devolving into pseudo-autocracy, so there's that.
Talked with Ian Masters about Trump, L.A., and how sending in the National Guard could backfire. The Background Briefing interview is up now.
Read. Gessen understands authoritarianism and shows Americans what we don’t see. Just think how powerless Trump would be if thousands of large protests swept across the US and didn’t stop.
Vielen Dank!
I’m blessed to live in San Diego. Many a time I have sat on this bench, in awe at how breathtaking earth can be. #Cherish
🧵Post 10: They're Only Strong Because We Stay Silent I'm ending this thread with a truth from Gene Sharp (read him!): "If people are not afraid of dictatorship, that dictatorship is doomed." Let's pull the curtain back on charlatan-Trump - he's only as strong as we let him be.
How can one not despair after reading the morning paper? Our government is weaponizing itself against American society.
🧵Post 9: The Illusion of Time People think they'll resist later. After the election. When things get "really" bad. But autocrats work fast. They know if they can quickly corrupt our democratic institutions, it will be much harder to fix later on. #SpeakUp
Also, read this. All true.
Today I’m just sad. When tested, most academics stay silent. Our profession selects for caution, deference, and aversion to risk. Yet tenure gives us one of the safest platforms to speak out - and still most stay quiet. Silence doesn't mean objectivity or neutrality. It means complicity.
🧵Post 8: Propaganda Works Autocrats like Putin, Xi (and Trump) understand that lies travel faster than truth. Social media algorithms reward fear, not facts. That’s why they flood the system. And why they’re winning the war against democracy. #Infowars #PropagandaPlaybook
🧵Post 7: The False Hope of Institutions "The courts will stop him." "The press will expose him." "Voters will kick him out." This faith in the system lets people outsource responsibility. But institutions are only as strong as the people willing to stand up for them. #Resist
🧵Post 6: Fear of Standing Alone Most people won't act unless others do because we're risk averse creatures. It feels dangerous to go first. But people will speak up if the strongman is suddenly revealed to be weak. #TheEmperorHasNoClothes
🧵Post 5: Elite Complicity Business leaders, media moguls, party insiders stay quiet, thinking they’ll benefit (or can control) the autocrat. But strongmen don’t share power. From Mussolini to Putin to Trump, they use elites, then break them. #Defenestration #StrongmanPlaybook
🧵Post 4: Institutional Cowardice Institutions protect themselves. Universities, courts, businesses, the press often prioritize "neutrality", access, or survival. But by doing what's individually rational, they end up making everyone worse off. It's a classic #CollectiveActionProblem
🧵Post 3: People Fear the Cost of Speaking Up Most stay quiet to protect jobs, friends, and status. They think it’s safer - but they overestimate the risk of speaking out and miss the far greater cost of silence. Autocrats count on that. #StrongmanPlaybook
🧵Post 2: The Fog of Normalcy Autocrats don't announce their plans. They chip away democracy - slowly, legally - often in the name of crisis or "threat". People want to believe it's temporary & institutions will hold. But fear & uncertainty makes them silent. Autocrats know this. #StrongmanPlaybook
🧵Post 1: The Puzzle Why do people stay silent as a strongman takes power? Most don’t support authoritarianism. They stay quiet because speaking up feels risky, unclear, or pointless. This series unpacks how silence spreads and how autocrats use it to win. #democracy #authoritarianism #resistance
🧵New Thread: Why People Stay Silent This 10-part series traces the psychological, institutional, and strategic reasons why so many stay silent as authoritarianism creeps in. It’s meant to educate, provoke, and help readers recognize the warning signs before it’s too late.
I’ve heard quite a few business leaders proudly say they’ve finally realized Trump is a clown - like that’s some brave insight. But Bernie is right: calling him a “clown” makes it all sound like a joke and minimizes what Trump really is: utterly depraved and inhumane. Call him what he really is.
Day 6 of 20 Days of Classic Resistance Chenoweth & Stephan, Why Civil Resistance Works (2011) Nonviolent movements succeed twice as often as violent ones. This book shattered assumptions about protest and proved peaceful resistance is the most effective tool for real change.
Thank you for this. I only started posting about a month ago. If you create good content, people will come and that’s what I’m gonna do.
Friday Fun Find. Starting something new: every Friday I’ll share an article that caught my eye. See below for today’s pick. Should we just let AI think for us? Easier, maybe? Let me know what you think.
Summary: ICE is America’s secret police in waiting. I wrote this thread so Americans could clearly see what’s secretly happening behind the scenes, name it for what it is, and act before it's too late. Don't look away.
6. Lack of transparency: ICE hides its detention centers from view. Abuse, medical neglect, and filthy conditions are common. With no real oversight, they look less like U.S. facilities - and more like secret prisons in authoritarian states.
5. ICE and Local Police Merge: Local law enforcement now acts as an arm of ICE, fusing community policing with federal control. This is how authoritarian states erase boundaries and spread surveillance into everyday life.
Americans forget: the South was an electoral autocracy until the 1960s. Most citizens didn’t know real democracy, and many white Southerners liked it that way. White Christian nationalism has long held America’s democratic promise hostage. Now it wants to reclaim the country. Read this.
Trump is setting up the machinery for repression as we speak.
4. First They Target the Vulnerable: ICE disproportionately targets Latino, African, Asian, and Middle Eastern immigrants today. Secret police always start with disfavored groups because they are the easiest to isolate. But once the machinery is built, it can be turned on anyone.
I have no idea but I don't think Trump cares about anyone but himself. I'd bet that this was about him not Barron.
It hit me: Trump’s biggest attacks are at universities that likely rejected him in high school. Columbia, Harvard, Princeton. Even Penn said no, forcing him to transfer after two years at Fordham. None accepted him, so decades later he’s trying to destroy them. All that power and still so small.
3. Weak Judicial Oversight. ICE operates under the president, not the courts. It can detain people for months without charges or trials. Like secret police in autocracies, it enforces executive power with minimal legal checks and limited due process. This is information Americans need to know.
I love all these people but Kori the most.
2. Fear-Based Tactics. ICE raids homes at dawn, sweeps workplaces, and detains people with no criminal records. There is no transparency or clear accountability. This creates deep fear and is how secret police use intimidation and uncertainty to control citizens & communities.
How ICE is becoming America’s secret police: 1. Civilian Surveillance. ICE tracks people using license plate readers, social media, and private data brokers—often without warrants. This mirrors how autocrats use secret police to monitor “undesirables” and maintain control...
A classic authoritarian move: build a parallel military loyal to you, not the state. Trump learned in his first term that the U.S. military wasn't easily coopted - so this time he's creating his own. ICE is being reshaped into a kind of personal secret police. The signs are all there...
#5: Gene Sharp – The Politics of Nonviolent Action. What I love about this series is how clearly it lays out the many creative ways people can resist without violence. The range is stunning—and it makes you realize just how much untapped power citizens really have. So good.
I have the biggest crush on Steve Kerr. Don't tell my husband.
Most important article in the NYTimes today.
This is a fabulous list of books on authoritarianism (w/ summaries) from a top scholar on democracy, Steph Haggard. ucigcc.org/blog/14-book...
Every American needs to read this article over and over again. "Anticipatory obedience is a key building block of budding dictators."