There will be many PhD dissertations about this most curious failure to see one's own interest. The word, "cult," will be used often.
Born in the 60s. Cornell. Physics/Philosophy major. retired Wall St. derivatives trader. A guy who believes the US experiment in self-government is a less than 50/50 proposition going forward, but will die on that hill. #231273
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There will be many PhD dissertations about this most curious failure to see one's own interest. The word, "cult," will be used often.
bsky.app/profile/cape...
Gain control of the Fed, crash the markets and pick the winners and losers. bsky.app/profile/cape...
The Israeli threat to take over more of the West Bank if this happens, as it will, sets us on a collission course. Tragic.
Unsurprising if true.
Arbitraging semantics. I love it.
They all start to matter now. Go Phils.
they were good at taking them...
#EconSky That the US is the financial repository of a significant portion of global savings AND is being run like a banana republic WHILE global financial markets take much of it in stride amazes me. Faith in "number go up" investing is something to behold.
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#EconSky "The biggest reason to think the “TIME IS OF THE ESSENCE!!!” is that Congress is coming back and will have to pass a budget to deal with the destruction wreaked by Trump’s Big Ugly Bill if it understands that these tariffs are illusory." www.emptywheel.net/2025/09/01/i...
Tariff Home Sales!
#Trump #Dementia This is just creepy. I Google "Fred Trump's Dementia" and Google #AI tells me "there are no credible reports" I "go deeper with AI" and I'm told, "oh yeah, dude died of it" (paraphrasing) ps yep, I definitely want AI in the medical field AND in charge of the Nukes 🙃
this strategy worked so much better in Nazi Germany before people had smart phones
to repeat my words "note that in the latest read, African American Women's Unemployment rose while White Male Unemployment fell" and the graph shows the reading from the most recent month not sure which part is incomprehensible that the disparity grows as layoffs begin seems clear, right?
then you want to consider beta or the relative rate of change given the same impulse
to begin, what reason can you offer for the disparity in any event? is white male employment inherently more productive than African American female?
some data...note that in the latest read, African American Women's Unemployment rose while White Male Unemployment fell - this is a feature, not a bug
I'm old enough to remember that movie in the theaters. Loved it then. sucks to be living not just the hints of it but the reality in full
Did they say that right after the Russians jammed Von der Leyen's GPS?
That is a terrifyingly true statement. Dr. Strangelove meets The Omen.
sorry - I was a philosophy of science major in college I find it all fascinating and humbling
there's an Alan Dershowitz underwear joke being begged here
200 years ago, before anyone pushed Georges Lemaître's Big Bang ontology, the safe bet was on a steady state universe. All very "watchmaker" Newtonian stuff. Then the need to explain the "red shift" threw astrophysics into a tizzy 3000 years over 4.5Billion isn't much to go on
David Bohm would argue that within the confines of the tiny aspect of the universe we humans have experienced in our collective, sharable consciousness, there appear to be commonalities we infer to be laws dependent upon the current metaphysics I hope these laws exist as you allege otherwise 😬
#Ukraine Who should break it to @vonderleyen.ec.europa.eu ? A promise from a man who broke signed agreements he PERSONALLY negotiated and signed isn't worth much. It no longer even works as subterfuge.
![“President Trump reassured us that there will be [an] American presence as part of the backstop,” she said. “That was very clear and repeatedly affirmed.”](https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:lqewfwp3uppfzoim2taumjwg/bafkreigdgfqtidqatk4pmq4mfte3ltqtjos5dyzosglsm27f5zcso7eqji@jpeg "Click to view full size")
By "consider" I'll infer "assume" I do not so assume I believe there is sufficient regularity to infer physical laws which get hazy as moles become molecules become quarks David Bohm is worth a read "There are more things in heaven and earth, Horatio, than are dreamt of in your philosophy’"
The vote counter doing tariffs. "I just want to find $400B in import taxes." www.bbc.com/news/av/worl...
it's a very fine line so much anguish flows from determined reaction, in particular as environmental conditions get harsher and yet, in those moments free will to rise above the "preordained" can shine fascinating issue to contemplate if only we had calmer seas to contemplate but we don't
he's not even feeling good 😉
the 123 follower thing makes sense now
Yes. He's using the "no free will" soundbite as advertising to get people to consider his more subtle argument. The nested determinatives from the biologic through ancestral/behavioral to individual experience makes sense to me. I believe not only can we be more free but believing such helps.
All the credit must go to President Trump. This truly could not have happened without him.
now you conflate relative assessments of political/economic policy mixes with an overall assessment of a political parties efficacy can you debate above a grade school level?
Political economy 101 - a President who believes in the rule of law operates in the legislative legacy of those who came before. There is only so much change one can impose. If you don't believe the Inflation Reduction act was net positive for low incomes then you should love what Trump is doing.
His simian/anthropological work was also my invite to his other works. I've been a William James fan since college - "for my first act of free will, I will believe I have free will" - so Sapolsky's determinative perspective while well argued sits oddly in my head. My time is not yet ripe 😉
No I didn't. But if you can find me doing that in my 1000s of posts, feel free to rebut me.
Krugman has written pretty extensively about wealth inequality. He was a big fan, as was I, about what Biden had done n Harris might do. But hey, if you think Trump's policies are improving things, have fun.
open.substack.com/pub/paulkrug...
Until SCOTUS limits POTUS' authority we are all screwed.
Does it matter? I hate that this is happening but I think great effort is being wasted. The problem is the Unitary Executive's ability to turn what might be a clerical error into "cause". POTUS creates the liability which is, in this specific context, undefensible. It's crazy. It's happening.
11th Grade. Mr. Seeley. We would read the NYTimes and discuss/research the context. He taught me the connection between history and the present moment.
That was a great read. Thank you. Contextualizing our times in your Chilean intro - Nixon had broken the Bretton Woods system in 1971 and was doing all he could to win in 1972. Pinochet was followed by the Arab Israeli War and the Oil embargo. Not repeating, but rhyming, as Twain put it.
Did you include Sapolsky of your own free will or not 🤔
and then buried next to his first wife
As an old guy I can attest. The early internet era was a very hopeful time. Indeed our nation was really hopeful going into the 2000 election. We could have invested our Social Security surplus into Gore's Green Revolution. But SCOTUS gave us Bush, who gave us IRAQ.
Destroying the Federal gov't BUT having the private sector or Blue States come to fill the gaps might be our best option here. It would force a showdown sooner than later. bsky.app/profile/cape...
Blue State self financing what used to be Federal roles is a trend the Feds should not want to start. Blue states finance the nation.
When Trump is no longer POTUS whether by death or senility the markets will likely crash. MAGA will have lost their God and the suspension of disbelief about lawlessness will freak people out. That crash will make the battle for control tricky.
Next batter up, SCOTUS.
those who know enough with the power to effect change are like this person many, as you note, can't imagine how this will turn out bsky.app/profile/did:...
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if only "stupid" was the worst aspect of this It's lethal. Actively seeking to deport, imprison, starve, sicken, and expropriate funds from a large % of the productive members of a nation is madness.
IKR 🙃
Boosler for the win 👍
question for the lawyers: If POTUS determines what cause is and he determines cause for firing is applying for 2 mortgages on properties in the same year and claiming they are both primary residences and Cook did this (unknown to me) does the court defer to POTUS?
#EconSky “I find what he is doing abhorrent, but the truth is I’ve been a huge beneficiary of Trump’s policies. The ‘BBB’ cut my taxes, boosted cash flow for my company, and pumped stimulus into the market — so my portfolio keeps growing.” ROFLMAO on.ft.com/47ls0Yq youtu.be/8j7oT2I8Nz8?...
#EconSky Thank you @annabower.bsky.social for the stream. IANAL so take this view with many grains of salt but I suspect the court will defer to POTUS on this given that the facts were not in dispute. This hearing was the time to prove the allegation wrong. #Trump won the #Fed today.
That is pretty toxic. Can't say I wouldn't feel the same way. Thin gruel I know but the number of psych and sociology PhD studies that will come out of this data will be impressive...or would if all humanities research funding hadn't been gutted by the current administration.
makes you think and it makes me thing sadly it doesn't have that same effect on a critical mass of other minds
This is terrifying.
That Ukraine can apparently do more damage to Russia's energy infrastructure than Russia can do to Ukraine's is a most pleasant surprise. Explode away.
Upper hand to do what exactly? Start a eugenics campaign in the US? on.ft.com/4p2MVpy
He reminds me of a movie
#EconSky #NVDA #AI There is NO BUBBLE. There is NO BUBBLE. There is NO BUBBLE. www.cnbc.com/2025/08/28/n...
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Cognitive dissonance support media rather than outright propaganda these days.
True dat. Of course with all the benefits of instant communication many can't see what is in front of our noses now, regardless of favored comparative era. Dark ages? Which one? The one that swallowed Ugarit? 😉
To be clear, I don't think, even if the allegations are true, that this rises to the level of cause. My complaint was about failing to see the rules of the game have been (or as in when she was being vetted, soon to be) suspended. Biden and the Fed were not preparing for the war we are in.
Amen to that sentiment. What a tricky, heady position to be in as a Fed official. The smooth functioning of international commerce - people buying their daily bread - depends upon such. Coincidentally, powerful forces want MORE money. And Econ ain't physics. Not an easy task at all.
If NATO was still a thing the US might have responded differently to the damage to the building housing the European Union mission to Ukraine in Kyiv. abcnews.go.com/Internationa...
I hadn't seen that. "Pinkerton, now a subsidiary of Paragon Systems, currently counts security and loss prevention among its many services" Loss prevention 😬 plus ça change
And Pinkertons en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pinkert...
State directed capitalism can work IFF the state chooses wisely. Xi bet on renewables. Trump bet on fossil fuels. Trump loses and so do we all in the US.
cc @schumer.senate.gov @hakeem-jeffries.bsky.social
Epstein files: -48 👀
Amidst the myriad WW2 documentaries this one just might be worth a view in our context. Adam Tooze joins in with an economist's view of the economic incompetence. Awareness of reality was an impediment to the Nazis. on those MEFOs greydynamics.com/the-economic... youtu.be/VXnuIbGCYG8?...
That this guy could bamboozle a nation of Germans into believing that he was the Aryan to lead them used to be totally confusing. Until I started living through our experience with the Businessman in Chief.
#TSLA If a Full Self-Driving Car crashes in a tunnel does Elon Musk's head make a sound 🤔
Remember. Sandwiches don't hurt people. The people who throw sandwiches...scratch that, they also don't hurt people.
Another school shooting! Wall St: "whew, at least gun stocks held up today" Another #AI assisted suicide! Wall St. "let's talk about #NVDA earnings, baby"
Agreed. Outsiders in a place like that have bright orange vests on at all times whether they know it or not.
That is great news!
A crisis this fall would be much better than one after Powell leaves.
#EconSky #LisaCook #FederalReserve "As you can see, the assets held by the Federal Reserve currently total about $2.1 trillion, up significantly from about $870 billion before the crisis." Do we want a Trumpy Fed after a crisis? www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/s...
Have fun Zuck: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1946_Al...
#EconSky I wish Yellen had noted that Fed Independence goes way beyond setting interest rates. bsky.app/profile/cape...
#EconSky Whose expectations? This is something we will all learn in the coming years. Prices are not set by demand. Prices are set by suppliers at the highest possible price the market will bear unless engaged in competition destruction. Inflation is not a one-off. It's here to stay.
#EconSky @claudia-sahm.bsky.social has a suggestion for Fed Chair Powell: "Livestreaming FOMC meetings, and publishing primary reference materials such as the Tealbook, would show how the current data-driven process works." Sunshine on a soon to be Trumpy Fed is a great idea. tiny.cc/g8rr001
That might run afoul of the RW 2nd amendment logic, no? "Sandwiches don't hurt people, those who throw the sandwiches hurt people."
"How did the greatest country in the world vote for this imbecile?" A question I ask myself more than once a day.
#EconSky Driving away all wealthy people who don't agree with the current administration is a curious choice...
We need a wartime consigliere.
Perhaps more than can yet be appreciated. youtu.be/QAAbcNl4Lb8?...
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awesome!
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She is suing. This will go to SCOTUS. And then we will know if we still live in America.
To paraphrase JM Keynes, the pendulum can move away from equilibrium far longer than one can remain solvent - indeed longer than one can stay alive
