@piie.com tracks this and thinks they've raised like $93 billion through the end of July. Appreciate some new levies kicked in on Brazil and India but somehow don't think tariff revenues for August were $7.907 trillion.
Author of Why Politicians Lie About Trade | Trade and Negotiations Explainer. Forever D&D DM. 🇺🇦 Born. 🇦🇺 Raised. 🇨🇭 Based. Media and training: explaintrade.com Consultancy network: auroramacro.com Speaking representation: cwgspeakers.com
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@piie.com tracks this and thinks they've raised like $93 billion through the end of July. Appreciate some new levies kicked in on Brazil and India but somehow don't think tariff revenues for August were $7.907 trillion.
Do they work with a US importer to handle the cross border movement of goods, or do they have a US presence that makes them effectively both sides of the transaction?
I'm not convinced it will. Shein and Temu can throw so many packages at the US border with dubious documentation that even if CBP stops 3% of them, the business model still works fine.
@annajerzewska.bsky.social would be far better placed to answer than I, but from my limited understanding it's not quite so simple. My instinct is that you could do all sorts of things with company structuring and freight forwarding to make it far less obvious that a Temu package is Temu.
6/ There's an infantile tendency to measure proposed solutions based on how bold and decisive they look, rather than by how sustainable effective they'll be, how well they use limited resources, and how they mitigate the harm or externalities they entail.
5/ Rather than the very difficult work of re-thinking customs rules and enforcement to manage a new paradigm of B2C sales by online retail giants abroad, they're just getting rid of the exemption entirely. It's pest control by flamethrower... and it's everywhere.
4/ Ending de minimis means Temu and Shein can't do that anymore, but it also takes that option away for millions of ordinary people and small businesses. Moreover, giants like Temu and Shein are probably better equipped to adapt, obviate or roll with this punch than your local artisan.
3/ There was a concern that gigantic firms like Temu and Shein were abusing de minimis by breaking up billions of dollars worth of shipments into individual consignments that mostly fall under its threshold - misusing a system designed to help small businesses and individuals avoid costs and hassle.
2/ I say it's emblematic because it follows a now familiar structure: 1. There is (at least the perception of) a real problem; 2. A government develops, with scarce forethought, a grenade-through-the-window "solution"; 3. Criticism of the SOLUTION dismissed as not taking the PROBLEM seriously.
1/ The elimination of de minimis is emblematic of the worst kind of reactionary, knee-jerk policymaking that's sadly not confined to the US. For those who don't know: The US has largely eliminated a rule that let packages of lower value (<$800) to skip most customs formalities and tariff duties.
I mean, they also paid most of the rest of the revenue too.
According to the latest calculations by @piie.com the US has collected $93 billion in tariffs in the first six months of this year. By way of comparison, in July alone total US government revenues were $330 billion. Nothing is getting obliterated or destroyed. He's such a drama queen.
Also the US military very clearly doesn't have the resources to permanently occupy all US population centers at a level sufficient to deter crime! I feel like I'm going crazy.
"Mr Mayor, can you really oppose unleashiung the horrific bioforms of Hive Fleet Behemoth upon Chicago to devour all life in a tide of chitinous hunger, given how much it has already reduced car jackings on Alpha Centuri IV which it reduced to a barren husk?"
"Why wouldn't you want the President of the United States to flood the streets of your city with soldiers to very temporarily and completely unsustainably suppress all human activity, including crime? I am a very serious journalist."
The people who want you to put down the sourdough because liking nice bread makes you a posh woke lib are trying to make you fight battles over aesthetics so they can win the war for power unopposed.
This is from the, "how come we don't ever talk about immigration?" school of British political analysis.
2/ ... just kidding. Have some dignity, people. /end
1/ As we celebrate for them, here are twelve ways trade policy could impact the upcoming nuptials of Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce...
I herbed Universal were in talks to make it, and things were moving abreast, but it proved too spicy for their tender sensibilities so they chickened out.
I have! It's so good!
Kidding aside, I'll believe Trump is on death's door when I see the goobers in his entourage suddenly start dumping their Trump Coin holdings.
6/ The reason you see hacks like RFK Jr. pushing back on the experts is not because they've been in charge and screwed up. They've never been in charge and that's not their role. He'd just prefer to say and do whatever without criticism or analysis from people who know what they're talking about.
5/ In areas of policy like health, I think there can be a tendency to also do some of this in reverse - pretending that unpopular decisions were ultimately made by experts and not merely on expert advice. That's equally nonsensical and a cowardly abdication of responsibility for hard choices.
4/ If you're promising that leaving the European Union will not only restore Parliamentary Sovereignty but also costlessly usher in a new golden age of prosperity through a 25 trillion dollar FTA with the US, it's really annoying to have me on BBC News explaining why that's very unlikely.
3/ In trade policy at least, a key reason politicians sometimes object to expert insight is that they don't like the answers. More specifically, they would prefer to paint their ideas as being more likely too succeed, less likely to hurt anyone, and with fewer costs than experts warn.
2/ As I wang on about in the book, all government policy decisions are a choice between competing interests and priorities. Experts are there to help governments understand what those choices can be, their likelihood of success against objectives and their costs, risks and implications.
1/ The role of experts in a democracy is to provide: 1️⃣ Advice to democratically elected leaders on the options available to achieve the objectives those leaders select; 2️⃣ Advice to democratically elected leaders on the likely outcomes and consequences of leaders' proposed plans.
If the President dies then either SCOTUS rules 6-3 that Stephen Miller can keep running the country because "Trump's Mandate Persists In Heaven" or JD Vance has the entire Cabinet entombed with Trump so he can replace the US government with an evil Palantir AI.
Appreciate the clarification.
Alito: "I think you'll find Article 1 clearly states the President shall have the authority to use the US tariff code as his personal extortion tool, and also to gene-sire twenty Primarch sons to lead his Space Marine Legions in a reconquest of the galaxy."
Appeals court says Trump's fentanyl and reciprocal tariffs are unlawful. Looking forward to the 6-3 SCOTUS decision which upholds them anyway because the Constitution clearly states Trump is an omnipotent God-Emperor destined to reign upon the Golden Throne until all is returned to dust.
Boy, it must feel good to have someone read what you write... I WONDER WHAT THAT'S LIKE, MARIE.
I think all the people you're mocking would feel a lot better if they read your feed and realized you apologize profusely for literally anything you enjoy. "Sorry to be twee and very Old Lady of me and kind of tres francais but just had a muffin and it was good and I'm sorry. I'm so sorry. -MLC"
What Did I Know About What You Did Last Summer and When Did I Know It?
I heard he serves Common 'Slaw sandwiches.
Probably worried you'll judge them.
How is "Lord Justice Bean" not the name of the coffee cart at the High Court?
My hero.
"Liberals scoff at President Trump's plan to strap his political enemies to nuclear missiles fired at the moon, but even his harshest critics have to admit his plan takes action on the concerns many in America's heartland have about werewolves."
"If we strip this person's point of all context and the bad faith they're obviously operating in, and ignore that their proposed solution is batshit insane, self serving, and fundamentally evil, then we can get 800 words and 50m clicks from arguing they're not ENTIRELY wrong about the problem..."
I do so much "let me google this first name and see if the top h its are for men or women" and even that's basically just rolling the dice in some cases.
Keir Starmer's political strategy of trying to position himself as Farage with better administrative skills would be morally reprehensible even if it were working. It does not appear to be.
If you honestly believe the Russians hit the EU delegation in Kyiv by accident, I don't think you should be allowed to operate heavy machinery and I frankly question if letting you dress and bathe yourself is a violation of our collective duty of care.
www.nytimes.com/2025/08/26/t...
www.theguardian.com/technology/2...
I'm very comfortable with the creators of ChatGPT being tried for contributing to this patient's subsequent suicide?
... Sorry, are human therapists giving kids step by step instructions on how to tie a rope to ensure it severs breathing? What the hell are you on about?
I mean, the premise that Ukraine's NATO membership, foreign bases, EU accession and armament levels are something Putin gets to veto or allow has been an endlessly infuriating subtext since like 2014.
In the depths of the Mariana Trench there live creatures born to darkness so total they have never evolved eyes. Even they saw this coming.
Yes, but I guess my question is what are they PRETENDING their plan is.
It's honestly governance by people who lack object permanence. The fucking "Picabo Baby" approach to law enforcement and public spaces.
Ok, but let's park the morality of this for just a moment. Is the plan to just federalize and install rotating national guard patrols in every public space in the country forever? There are still going to be homeless people who seek shelter. Forget long term, what's the medium term plan here?
I'm going to become incredibly tedious about this but... and then what? Let's say you drive the homeless people out of a location, and setting aside the dehumanizing way that implies they're cattle to be herded... are you going to stay forever? The homeless aren't going to move to Peru.
I mean, I wouldn't take shots at the intellect of a dead 16 year old kid - but then I don't have a bible reference in my bio so I appreciate you're on a superior moral plane.
We spend a lot of time debating conservatives on their frankly dumb premises (US cities are descending into criminal underworlds, the National Guard are effective law enforcement officers, etc.) but even if you accept them all - their plans make no sense!
It's this sketch! Yeah, there are 50 covers at this guys restaurant while Gordon Ramsay is in the kitchen, but as soon as he leaves it's just a failing restaurant again because he hasn't fixed any of the underlying problems! www.youtube.com/watch?reload...
The only way the National Guard and Feds could be a solution to a crime problem in a US city would be if: a) There are only a finite, non-renewable number of criminals in the city so the troops can permanently deter, arrest or kill them all; or b) They stay forever. It's so unbelievably dumb.
When you promise a company a bunch of incentives, wait several years for them to begin making investments based on those incentives, and suddenly demand a 10% stake in exchange for releasing the congressionally appropriated funds, that's not EXACTLY the same as buying shares on Robin Hood, though.
It is, that's how I know about it. www.bbc.com/news/article...
I occasionally ask ChatGPT to help me code something or for a recipe, so the safety features do nothing for me. Some confused, lonely kid for whom it's their only friend and confidant needs them desperately as they spend 14 hours a day telling it their darkest inner thoughts.
So let me get this straight. ChatGPT coached a kid through suicide attempts while validating his ideation. The response from OpenAI is, "yeah, turns out if you talk to an LLM long enough the safety features stop working." Guess the usage patterns of people who most need safety features!?!
Just checking...
The World Bank to respond by replacing all statistical releases with NFT Apes.
I'm a Communist compared to you and even I'm not enthusiastic about government driven IT services...
You can't raise the kind of capital required to do this in Europe, and not quickly.
I laughed so hard at this: "The Commission pushed back against that interpretation."
Also like, how is this news?
Also, Trump's post is pretty crazy.
Yes, just like that.
We're less than a year in.
It's an especially frustrating accusation from someone whose political prescription for almost everything is that Democrats should simply pick the popular side of issues.
Like yeah, the Navy SEALS might choose the stand-up guy with impeccable character over the asshole beside him who can do a few more pullups, but that's because they're choosing between two dudes who can both do an objectively obscene number of pullups.
Colby going to write an FP op-ed about how stripping Ukraine of Humvees is the only way to keep Taiwan safe.
If he's proposing we begin negotiating peace with Russia once Ukrainian troops have seized Moscow and Putin has shot himself in a bunker, I guess I'd be ok with that. Feels a bit extreme though.
It's also (as your piece implies) a perversion of Sinek's actual point which is that top organizations THAT ARE CHOOSING BETWEEN VERY QUALIFIED CANDIDATES are better off choosing someone who is slightly worse on paper but not an asshole - which is true, but not at all a blanket attitude > skills.
"... also having an uncle on our board."
CEO on LinkedIn: "I don't screen for credentials, I screen for passion. I don't look at degrees, I look at dedication. I don't see prior experience, I see positive potential." Candidate: "Amazing! And what does your outsourced HR software filter for?" CEO: "Oh credentials, degrees and experience."
Not sure this contagion is localised to the US given 3/4s of the British press is currently trying to turn a woman who confessed to incitement into Nelson Mandela.
Finally, a trade issue you care about.
Something so disheartening about watching the breakdown of public trust. Have we really reached a point where people are even questioning the truthfulness of a convicted child sex trafficker about the man who could commute and pardon her at the stroke of a pen?
The substack boys on Twitter want you over there to entertain the algorithmically boosted Nazis in their replies whom they rely on for their engagement metrics and who get bored if there's no one to abuse. They don't actually think you'll debate @Fuhrar1488 into moderate centrism.
🤔
In Nick Clegg's defense, nothing in his recent pre-Facebook experience could have forewarned him that accepting a position of supposed authority from bad people doesn't always work out the way you had hoped.
Thank you, it took real strength to have my highly paid image consultancy plant a version of this in every major western publication.
"Why I took the courageous decision to accept a huge salary with stock options from Zuckerberg after torching my political career, and what I learned about how not everyone in big tech is a perfect person - but crucially not so imperfect that my working for them would be a black mark against me."
"If we fight a grinding total war of attrition we'll need factories!" is the kind of statement that might be true in an economy-wide sense but is just populist protectionism in an army helmet when you reach for it one sector at a time to justify tariffs or subsidies you want to roll out anyway.
Why is the European Union thwarting the air conditioning dreams of Tajikistan?!?
I wrote a piece in defense of signing napkin deals with the United States. Not because I think they're good - but because I think they're what countries can get. www.explaintrade.com/resources/na...
Sure, though I wish engineering also came with an additional 5+ hours of intense lectures on how getting an engineering degree doesn't qualify you to address every complex social problem in existence.
Really practical example from my field. When we negotiate the text of multilateral/plurilateral trade agreements that are often all about linguistic agility/precision and a finite feel for the implications of word choice in English, the native/polished English speakers do 90% of the talking.
I knew that from the start because my very Soviet grandfather started teaching me algebra, trig and so on at like, age 8 - and so I have spent the rest of my life avoiding anything you can't just bluff your way through.
Yeah, I'm 100% with you on that. I just differentiate between artistic practices (drawing, animation, creative writing, poetry) and for example, the kind of communication skills you get judged on and rewarded for in day to day life even in fields that claim to be focused on other metrics.
Had they had the ability to take their ideas and research on French history or whatever we were studying, which I'm sure were a lot better than mine, and run them through ChatGPT to turn them into nice sentences, they'd have deservedly kicked my lazy ass.
I was a terrible student in Undergrad, worked nights and played World of Warcraft instead of going to class. I still got great grades because it was an Australian university, so 80% of the class were foreign ESL students and I was just better at putting English words in order than they were.
I'm kind of torn about this because I do think sometimes we create tests, barriers and standards that are badged as "testing your ability to do thing", but are actually "ability to word good about thing" and those aren't the same thing.
But the fire Rachel, it sings to me. I must heed the siren call of the flames.
This week...
Like I'm sorry but if Michelle Obama had proposed a gigantic new government apparatus to send boxes of free kale to poor people I don't think the coverage would focus on how she has a good underlying point about childhood obesity.