Armchair O7 Once an anthropologist & soldier. 🇪🇺🇳🇱🇺🇲 Pseudonym. Defense, Security & Technology. Keep faith in your values burning
202 followers 91 following 1,337 posts
view profile on Bluesky 
🤔 BRICS “traditional values”? • Genocide – ✔ Russia • Torture – ✔ China’s camps, Russia’s prisons • Child trafficking – ✔ Russia’s deported kids • No human rights – ✔ Take your pick • Internment – ✔ Xinjiang, Russia, S.A. • Political persecution – ✔ All of them Quite the family photo of values.
The war that touches us all. www.iiss.org/research-pap...
Solar panel imports will reduce OVERALL imports - because the value of diesel imports eclipses the value of solar panel impors. A solar panel in Nigeria now costs just $60, and can repay the cost of diesel for a generator within 6 months - and even less in other countries.
Trump doesn't want to know that Putin plays him like a fiddle. All Trump craves is validation. Daddy issues. www.ft.com/content/f4ed...
Putin holding an imperialist and expansionist speech at the Shanghai "cooperation" organization. Which may be setting the tone given that China and India are also attending. Small nations will rush to nuclear weapons to protect themselves from old men with relevance and legacy issues.
Rationalism defeats irrationalism by its very nature. Would be a disaster if China's course of action turns out to be more rational than ours.
Iran’s new nationalism won’t give its leaders legitimacy - on.ft.com/4lUPuaq via @financialtimes.com
Prevent Venezuela from ogling Guyana?
I'm 100% on board with him getting the peace prize if he helps Ukraine kick the Russians out. There is no greater peace now than when Russia is deterred.
Limiting AI so that it reflects your political bias will seriously hobble its value: the efficiency as a rational agent. AI models tend to be liberal because liberals tend to be more rational. Plus they produce most of the material used to train models www.economist.com/internationa...
A downed Russian surveillance drone type Gerbera contained test footage from the Chinese factory from which it was delivered.
"Without a military counterforce, diplomacy with Russia is a form of self-deception" Absolutely vital insights here. Not only does Europe have trouble assuming a military scale, mindset, posture and deterrence, it also threatens the bully without knowing if there is enough solidarity.
"The first wave of grocery-price increases will likely hit this winter. Roberson predicted produce prices could rise 50% to 100% by early next year as inventories clear and new contracts kick in." fortune.com/2025/08/28/t...
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen: Putin is a predator. Putin's proxies have been targeting our societies for years with hybrid attacks, with cyber attacks. The weaponizing of migrants is another example.
Did you know that? In Aug 2014 russia promised to open a green corridor for the Ukrainian defenders encircled near Ilovaysk. While Ukrainians were moving via agreed routes, russians shelled them, killing 366, injuring 429 & imprisoning 300 ppl. Never ever trust any russian "peace" offers. Never.
Schip is ook in Rotterdam geweest. Iig geïnspecteerd daar. Vandaag in Finland weer doorzocht. Zijn we alert genoeg? Nationale & Europese reactie is nog steeds te fragmentarisch. yle.fi/a/74-20179177
Russian Drones Are Flying Over U.S. Weapons Routes in Germany, Officials Say www.nytimes.com/2025/08/28/u...
I imagine that many people feel compelled to say something. It comes from a good place.
CDC officials resign en masse over RFK Jr’s policies they warn will lead to deaths of children and vulnerable adults
Zelfde in de VS maar de media are addicted to outrage. Japan kent dat fenomeen al langer, rustige samenleving maar losbandige entertainment met veel seks & geweld. www.cbsnews.com/news/fbi-cri...
Did it have spaghetti?
Today, Kyiv was attacked with jet-powered Geran-3 drones. The UAVs were found to contain a Czech PBS TJ40-G2 engine from PBS Velká Bíteš, and a German Bosch fuel pump, typically used in cars.
The below goes for every European country. Unable to pool resources or even co develop capabilities because politics is unable to centralize security. Russia will either destroy Europe or force it to address stifling divisions.
It's that day. The book I always wanted to write, about the enmities and intimacies of Britain's unique relationship with Ireland, is published today. Profound thanks to Sarah at Wylie and Laura at Faber (and teams) for making it possible. @faberbooks.bsky.social .... linktr.ee/thesedivided...
In Helsinki, the court case against the #EagleS captain and 1st and 2nd officers started yesterday. Iltalehti reports that 🇫🇮 police wiretapped the crew after detaining them and intercepted instructions by the operator to tamper with evidence: www.iltalehti.fi/kotimaa/a/f4... (Google transl. text)
“Vladimir Putin is in trouble. Isolated, outmanoeuvred, and stalled on the battlefield, Russia is tottering financially and militarily, while Zelensky's Ukraine continues to hold the upper hand.” A good piece from @EngelsbergIdeas Engelsberg ideas.com/essays/russias-reckoning-is-coming/
Thanks for sharing, Holland and Zeeland drew in a lot of people from their near abroad. The army very heavily relied on soldiers not from these provinces as well. Must have been a challenge to master all the languages and dialects.
An "airforce general" with 0 followers reposted me. I asked where he serves. So he deleted the repost, changed his bio and reposted again. I've seen several such users lately, using my posts to cultivate their profiles.
Iranians have yearned for change from the violent, gerontocratic regime even before 2009 when millions took to the streets in protest. Every few years they rise up only to be smothered in blood. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iranian...
Duitse leger komt 80.000 soldaten en 140.000 reservisten tekort. Plan is invoering dienstplicht 'light'. 18-jarige jongens moeten vanaf 1-1-26 een vragenlijst invullen. Vanaf 1-7-27 wordt keuring voor jongens verplicht. Leger biedt geschikte kandidaten oa aantrekkelijk loon. bild.de/politik/inla...
The Guardian published casualty ratios of civilians vs. military in conflicts since 1989, in an article on civilian deaths in Gaza. Mariupol ranked second after Rwanda: during the Russian siege in 2022, 95% of those killed were civilians and 5% were military. www.theguardian.com/world/ng-int...
Remarkable development, slowly then suddenly. Low cost electric vehicles with batteries will do the rest. All year round sun and no cold winters.
Sierra Leone imported enough solar panels in one year to make up 65% of their entire nation's generating capacity. If you're not preparing for massive drops in fossil fuel demand, you're not paying attention. electrek.co/2025/08/25/c...
Anerica is losing its first line of defense. www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/202...
They certainly know modern warfare tactics, strategy and equipment better than we do. It's self interest to have them join.
Ukraine Deserves to be in NATO open.substack.com/pub/ivodaald...
Are you monitoring this? I can't even begin to speculate. Many possible reasons and few are reassuring. @covertshores.bsky.social
US Air Force spent 7 hours sniffing for nuclear decay today, low over central Baltic Sea. About 5000m NE of Gotland and down to 1500m closer to Kaliningrad. The plane is a highly specialized one.
"The biggest threat to Ukraine may not be on the battlefield, but in the flawed commentary of Western military analysts." Amen
Worth following @philipobaji.bsky.social for the African angle especially concerning Russia's takeover. bsky.app/profile/phil...
Russian journalist Petr Ruzavin joined the Ukrainian Armed Forces in 2024. “Who can make a greater contribution: Ruzavin the Ukrainian soldier or Ruzavin the Russian journalist?” “I’ve concluded that Ruzavin the Ukrainian soldier can make a greater contribution.” www.nytimes.com/2025/08/25/o...
Yes that's part of it, always looking at each other to pay and take initiative. The Mossad has no alternative and must act. We think we can afford to blame Germany for not taking responsibility. Good things are happening, but still asleep
Arguably one of the reasons that Russia is still in Ukraine is that deepening European integration in security has been successfully thwarted. It is a profound challenge to cooperate in this field, but going it alone is a deeper one. Especially for the smaller countries who can't afford it.
I wrote this week on some of the challenges facing the incoming MI6 chief in October. More targets & more diverse targets, the increasing difficulty of keeping agents secure in big data, and the huge expense of investing in secret cloud to take full advantage of AI. www.economist.com/britain/2025...
This is precisely why providing Ukraine with what it needs to push Russia out is in Europe's vital interest.
Like our militaries they've learned to mistake "war" for doing police work in Afghanistan. Its a long struggle to return to the self interest.
AI is disrupting another business. These rock tracks redone in R&B / Soul can use some remastering and I'm certain that many will say that something without "life" will never be "creative". But these simply rock. www.youtube.com/watch?v=gpm7... www.youtube.com/watch?v=ChCX...
It's beyond shameful that so many EU countries have still not stopped these exports to Russia after more than 3 years of war.
I would buy this album in a heartbeat (@fakemusic_br instagram) #funk #acdc
Peace is a secure and liberated Ukraine and a deterred Russia. Imagine Trump learning that that would get him the peace prize
Don’t expect peace, or a Nobel Prize anytime soon. (My latest) tomorrowsaffairs.com/dont-expect-...
NEW: There's a new startup in Dubai that is offering up to $20 million for zero-days to break into any smartphone ($15 for only iOS and only Android). Company won't say who runs it, who funds it, who they sell to, and whether they have any legal or ethical restrictions on who they sell to.
Serious escalation and a warning to us all. defence-blog.com/colombian-bl... @shashj.bsky.social
Attack of the clones
Chatgpt may be the pets.com of the AI age, but the technology will be far more impactful than even the internet. A merger between human and AI seems like a likely outcome.
In H1 2025, exports of German cars to the Republic of Georgia (blue) were up 600% over the same period in 2021 (before Russia invaded Ukraine). The reason the EU has to go cap in hand to the White House is because of this nonsense. Spare me the photo ops. Just do your job and finally stop this...
One reason Putin now wants a "peace process" (or rather a "get Ukraine to surrender" process) is because in strategic terms the balance is shifting - and not in his favor. He's taking tiny slivers of ground for huge losses, while new UA weapons threaten deeper strategic strikes.
Time for a decentral intelligence agency where you guys pool talent and ability in the service of osint? This could further stifle vital cooperation and sharing with smaller European partners who depend on it.
It's a stunning self own. The Eagle's feathers and talons are getting pulled out because the boss has a fragile ego.
We write on Tulsi Gabbard's purge of one of the most senior Russia analysts in the US intelligence community, alongside other serving officers who were associated, sometimes only tangentially, with the 2016 Russia report. The most serious purge vs the CIA to date. www.economist.com/united-state...
This is an incredibly comprehensive and accurate view of the sweeping malign activities of Vladimir Putin by a brilliant, first hand observer, @markhertling.bsky.social The Trump administration would be wise to pay close attention to this litany of evil. www.thebulwark.com/p/putin-alwa...
www.reuters.com/business/aer...
Did Moscow request permission from Kyiv to deploy North Korean troops?
❗️Today, 🇺🇸US Air Force B-1B Lancer strategic bombers flew over 🇱🇻Riga, Latvia, accompanied by Gripen fighters from the 🇭🇺Hungarian and 🇸🇪Swedish Air Forces.
Russian Foreign Minister: The probability of a meeting between Zelensky and Putin before the end of August is zero. In the future, the chances are also extremely small or completely absent. A summit between Putin and Zelensky is nothing more than Trump's fantasy.
9/ Such warnings have been heard before. In January 2025, the Russian neo-Nazi group Rusich advised Putin to keep the war going indefinitely to avoid collapsing the army's combat capabilities. bsky.app/profile/chri... /end
Europe will need a CIA. It ought to recruit grumpy old senior CIA officers today to help set it up. Plenty of those around here on bsky
Paris hat die letzten Monate für 9,6 Mio. Euro seinen Rathausvorplatz entsiegelt und einfach in einen neuen Stadtwald verwandelt. Das Ergebnis sieht so wunderschön aus❤️
He should be promised a Nobel peace prize for fully thwarting Russian imperialism
We are too cheap to win.
Wat Brazilië heeft gegaan is makkelijker en effectiever dan een verbod: www.lemonde.fr/en/pixels/ar...
"The distinguished Irish historian FSL Lyons once observed that to understand the past is to cease to live in it..." By @philipstephens.bsky.social www.ft.com/content/cda6...
European leaders jet to Washington each time Trump has some crazy thing. Too bad the yanks can't handle him themselves but need the Euros to clean up the mess.
... too high a cost. The Kremlin accountant will come for him, and he knows it. 7/end www.ft.com/content/3515... via @financialtimes.com & @gideonrachman.bsky.social
Europe will be a soft target because it has become the enemy of Russia and will be attacked short of war. Putin probably can't let a full freeze of hostilities take place, he promised far too much and delivered far too little for far ...
to deal with a Russia that is not brought back into the fold of international norms. This isn't just morals but about self interest as well which for the EU, given the innate frailty of its internal agreements, is the same thing. Once the war is frozen, and all these crimes condoned...
edifice including war crimes. Apart from proven use of NBC weapons, starvation or the conscription of children, Russia has violated basically all war crimes prohibited by the Rome statute and the Geneva conventions. This seems to be intentional. For the EU there is no decent way ...
territorial settlement that leaves tens of thousands of children, many with desperate parents who haven't seen them for years, in the hands of a wanted war criminal. The Russian war is an assault on international law itself, not just the parts covering territorial integrity, but the entire ...
... of population (children) and that of unlawful transfer of population (children) from occupied areas of Ukraine to the Russian Federation (under articles 8(2)(a)(vii) and 8(2)(b)(viii) of the Rome Statute)". There can be a ceasefire without addressing such issues, there cannot be a stable ...
www.ft.com/content/3515... I do see a theoretical case for land swap. But to walk back everything that happened between these two countries will require more than territorial concessions. Putin is wanted by the ICC for being personally "responsible for the war crime of unlawful deportation ...
The best “NATO-like security guarantee” for Ukraine is NATO membership. Full stop. www.nytimes.com/2025/08/17/w...
Life-saving tips for European parents:
Trump-Putin Alaska summit ends without breakthrough on Ukraine on.ft.com/47tHXvu
China’s vision of America - on.ft.com/4fBZZ0y via @gideonrachman.bsky.social Certainly one of the most interesting exercises is trying to understand the worldview of the Chinese politbureau. It may not be as critically insightful as one would hope, or indeed, as circumstances necessitate.
Almost a whole Nuremberg court full of war criminals no less.
Today Donald Trump gives audience to a war criminal on US soil.
It'll work for Putin
Sometimes seeks like 9/11 broke something
The rolled stones
The Chinese AI start-up encountered persistent technical issues during its R2 training process using Huawei’s Ascend chips, highlighting the limits of Beijing’s push to replace US technology on.ft.com/4fBOuX7
This was supposed to happen exactly 19 years ago. The plan is not divisive, Hezbollah is. The pretense to be part of any sort of resistance was shown to be null and void when it helped Assad suppress the resistance in Syria.
The thin salient the Russian forces have created in eastern Ukraine over the past few days stands like a dagger aimed at the heart of Ukraine’s line of fortress cities. Small groups of Russian group troops have apparently penetrated a section of the Ukrainian defensive line. 1/4 (Image:@DefenceU)
Ik zit te wachten op de terugkeer van Diogenes en een schitterend ongeluk. Sindsdien is televisie vaak teleurstellend.
@nobelprize.bsky.social should say they will award the peace prize to Trump for making the Russians retreat from all of Ukraine and seeing the futility of invasion. That would be well deserved. Trump hungers for this prize, make him understand the how.
If Europeans are not awake to the peril of their situation, they have no one to blame but themselves.
Brazil's Supreme Court makes social media directly liable for illegal content www.lemonde.fr/en/pixels/ar...
