That cohort has been subject to a new, experimental therapy called "smashing a newborns head into a wall". The results are truly revolutionary. Here's a picture of an actual IQ test one of them took.

My generation is stupid

hm current 18 year olds were born in...oh my...you're not gonna believe this...the year 2007 They don't know! They missed all that!

They can’t read and their brains grew up on social media.

How is it possible for both male and female under 30s to be more pro-Democrat than either 18-21s or 22-29s? Something isn't adding up here.

Demographic trough in early 2000s means the 18-24 group is small and carries less weight.

No, not even that can make it make sense. According to the table, under-30 men are D+10, while under-30 women are D+26. Barring a group of nonbinary people who are inexplicably extremely Republican, that means that under-30s overall have to be between D+10 and D+26.

You are wrong. Please learn about Simpson's Paradox: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Simpson...

I don't see how Simpson's paradox can allow you to take a weighted average of 2 numbers, and get a result that is lower than both.

There are 6 cross tabs for under 30s. The strong trend to the Democrats can mostly disappear when you aggregate them. This is Simpson's Paradox.

However, 18-21s are R+12, while 22-29s are D+6. Barring a group of high school students who are extremely pro-Democrat, that means that under 40s overall have to be between R+12 and D+6. There's no weighting that can make this work.

I genuinely believe that there's a sizable portion that are to the left of the Democratic Party to the point that they would say they identify with either. If you look at the 'Don't know' column they are an average of five points more than the other demographics.

Joe Rogan, Charlie Kirk, etc.

These numbers are mathematically impossible lol. How are young men D+10.5 and young women D+26, but 18-21 is R+11 and 22-29 is D+6.4? Obviously, something is very wrong here

Yep. It's a cooked poll

A lot of these young dudes are dumb as fuck and pilled to the gills.

Brainrot

Damm, i remember couple years ago people were sure that if young generation start voting democrats gonna win and it is gonna be end of rebuplican party

📌

Also, what’s happening with Boomers? Long the enemy of Democrats and now besties with them

Also boomers are not as right wing as they used to be and they NEED social security to be working

I don't have the # right in front of me, but I believe Harris won over 65's.

Most exit polls I’ve seen had her lose it by 1 point. Which is actually a remarkable improvement

ok good to know, thanks - and yes, that is still quite, quite remarkable given the recent cycles before. though IIRC it was already trending towards this with Biden in '20

You really can’t underestimate the brain breaking destructive force that is Trumpism that had left basically all of the 20nth century assumptions about the American people ravaged in its wake and Boomers particularly boomer women are absolutely disgusting by it.

I agree, I think this is very substantially about Trump. The thermostatic reaction is already here among seniors.

I wonder if the senior swing is also partly due to the fact that a lot of the pro-Trump older people were disproportionately killed off by Covid?

Oof, that's a grim thought. But given how disproportionately deadly covid was for the elderly, and older men in particular, combined with faster lifting of protective measures in red states - yeah, this seems plausible (on the margins at least)

I’m not sure if it’s high enough to make that dramatic of a difference in polling.

This is a big part of it, older generation lived through the time before civil rights & women's rights, vaccines, etc, know how bad it was, and are really angry about the possibility of backsliding (see for example the "I can't believe I still have to protest this" signs).

Also there’s a massive gender disparity with older folks men die like SO much younger than women

Old white men are dying to it’s skewing more female and therefore more blue

Podcast bros and toxic masculinity?

They were not politically aware during Trump's first presidency and people that age are hard to poll anyway.

20 yo at my work voted for trump bc she didn't know anything about politics and her family said she should. That's how a lot of people that age are.

There's a reason this administration went out of its way to bail Andrew Tate out of Romanian prison.

📌

Some kind of error probably

I think it's basically impossible to poll 18-21 year olds and the ones that do answer are cuckoo.

Chicken "Shock Jock"-ey

Broligarchs telling them the systems been set up to keep them from getting laid.

My GenZ sister had pictures of Trump hanging over her bed since she was 10. She threw my ballot away in 2020 because I told her I wasn't voting for Trump. In 2024, she chased me behind a locked door and threatened to beat me to death for still not voting Trump. They've been brainwashed since youth.

The 18-21 numbers were like -30 in Pew megastudy last summer so this is good by comparison

Looks like a lot of young people are either “I know I’m a Republican” or “I’d like a socialist candidate”

We do zero for young men. We don’t talk about them in anything like a positive light. My son’s 21 and 23 years old. They told me democrats day and do nothing for them. We address trans rights daily. We talk about young men as a problem. It’s insane.

How about “we will help you get through college “.

Yeah I think its more that anytime he's online he's hit with the message dems dont do enough and young men are discriminated against. Its absurd how fast you can get to rightwing content from anything male-coded. Also this is the group that had their life blown up by COVID and its only gotten worse.

I’m proud of my young guys as they have mostly avoided the right wing bullshit that’s you’re fed online as a man. There is also nothing on the Democrat party website that speaks to young men at all look at the groups that it lists out! Young men – or men at all – not on that list.

The only people holding themselves out as role models are dudes like the tates. Not the Tim Walz of the world

I mean Walz absolutely did a lot of messaging to young men. But, I see what you're saying and you're right. Men as a group arent oppressed like women. But that doesnt mean they should be ignored, either. As you say, that's how the Tates of the world get to em.

Is there an org they can get involved in? Like Big Brothers? Or can they start a group for young men by young men? There's definitely a need.

Maybe. I wonder. I had a talk with someone a while back, there needs to be a book or movement on how to be a good man that’s also ‘manly’. Not enough of that out there. Thanks , have a good night.

I do wonder what young men think of New Heights, with the Kelce bros. They are/were NFL players, so as manly as it gets in American culture. But they don't follow the toxic stereotypes. They are respecful of women, not homophobic, cry about loving their mama, talk openly about mental health, etc.

Uh huh 🙄

This has to be sampling error

NPORS almost has an identical political split bsky.app/profile/prop...

I think there is a good idea they lean R but the margin seems off. 7 is still high but makes more sense.

Why they lean R might be covid and algorithm related. But I was that age during the early Bush administration...and post 9-11 there were a deep R lean that changed after Iraq...and the ones that stayed conservative mostly ended up going full fascists

How is 18-21 -11.7, 22-39 +6.4, but every single crosstab for "UNDER 30s" at *least* +10.5? This simply doesn't add up

Data entry error. -11.7 meant to be +11.7.

They state R+11.7 in their commentary, so doesn’t seem so. My guess is small sample bias, but we don’t have raw numbers, just post-weight sample demos (and the data display is fucked up on that, percentage display that’s 2 OOM off, which was confusing at first).

They only glancingly mention the vast outlier in the 18-21 age range, which makes me think they know it’s a hinky result. These are undergrads conducting the poll, so moderate expectations accordingly.

but than why are all the cross tabs in the under 30s dem +10? the 22-29 is only +6

I don’t have it in front of me, but there is in one of the docs a footnote that the weighting is different or excluded on the “under 30” cohort, so possibly an apples to oranges or apples to fish comparison going on.

(The data presentation on this is kind of driving me nuts, it’s very unclear what’s going on.)

Lol that's That's some VERY different weighting

I'm still salty that the obviously horseshit polling methods from all last year turned out to be right It makes no sense!

That was like, they all threw dice and guessed and turned out to be right. This looks like saying 2+2=17.

thinking more about it, and i don't have a great memory or other past polls in front of me but a generic 1.6 dem ballot lead among all voters doesn't seem compatible with being +10 among whites under 30 does it?

First result I found said <30 whites were +4 for Trump in 24 lol

most plausible explanation

I still don't see how the math gets there, but there's no way it gets there without it.

Still doesn’t explain it. For another angle, how are men and women under 30yo 10% undecided, while 18-21 and 22-29 are 15% undecided? Those should be roughly the same, or at the very least overlapping ranges. Unless one grouping is unweighted raw results and the other is weighted??

I don't know. I just post here. Are you into curling? I used to have friends from North Dakota who were really into it. Seemed like a good time.

I am, it’s a flipping fantastic time! Difficult while still being accessible, and afterwards you hang out and drink with the other team! 🍻

Sports that are excuses for social drinking really are the best sports.

This is likely Simpson's Paradox: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Simpson...

Lmao yeah I would just toss this one in the bin

Looooool wtf

Is it possible that 18-21 is that specifically radicalized?

The numbers don't add up, every single crosstab in the "under 30" section is more +D than either the 18-21 or 21-29 groups

Yeah, I don’t pretend to know whether that’s an impossible outcome, but it sure seems odd. Like, even if accurate, seems like that kind of micro-radicalization should be somewhat easy to spot.

Glad I’m not the only one that came to that conclusion.

Looks like young men. Again. For serious tho, it makes sense given that the manosphere targets teens, and 18-21 had their life blown up in 2020 as young teens and its just gotten worse since.

Take a look at the most popular influencers in the spheres of video games, comedy, and sports. They're almost all right-leaning if not completely fascist. These kids are being drip-fed poison from the moment they hit puberty. We're losing an entire generation because the right's taken the internet.

They had one president in their lifetime and It was the senile genocidal maniac racist Joe Biden

The most progressive president we've ever had? How old are you of you think that guy had uniquely bad foreign policy? Please touch grass. Also, Gaza was polling at 3% importance.

Since people like you can't seem to dustinguish, that doesn't mean I don't care about Gaza. I just live on earth, where activism isn't posting. Andrew Tate, Mr Beast, the HaileyBeiber/ Selena Gomez thing had more of an influence.

"My the most progressive president ever was Genocide Joe, despite him doing a genocide" estatement had a lot of people asking questions already answered by my caveat. Dumbass.

Hey Biden, your Border Bill metastasise into offshore concentration camps. I hope you are proud!

Every presidrnt is a war criminal. You are not making a point. You just look uninformed. Again, Gaza polled at 3% for voters under 30.

18 to 21 is a pretty small bracket, so it might just be variance. But I wouldn't sleep on the possibility that zoomers are disproportionately fascist

Tbh I would love to know if similar effects (though maybe not as strong) are present in other polls in the spring semester a new president takes office.

Zoomers are disproportionately fascist but in my personal experience is that this feels driven by the average right wing zoomer being way harder right.

Delete that “in”. Damn my inability to proofread on microblogging platforms.

There's fewer young Republicans. But, if you're a young Republican, you're now a straight-up nazi.

Bearing in mind that a 21 year old was 11 when Trump came down the escalator, and 16 when Covid hit. There's no memories of the world before there. Not that the rest of the under 30s *do* have them. But 18-21s first elections were '22 and '24. Those older than them (and under 30) were '14‐'20.

The 18-21 demo is people born in 2003-2007. The oldest members of that demo were just starting middle school when Trump got elected.

also, the average left-wing zoomer does not identify as Dem

They’re probably the first American generation since WW2 to be more exposed to pro-fascist content than anti-fascist content, so that’d make sense.

Incel manosphere (Fuentes, the Tates) content definitely played a role for sure

Very low sample size?

unlikely, someone pointed out this split shows up in NPORS

This could also be it

YYP sampled 2k 18-29s this year youthpoll.yale.edu

Under 30s worst sub-demo is male at +10.5 D but both 18-21 and 22-30 as a whole are way more Republican? I think they swapped D & R on that 18-21 crosstab

Ok. How many were 18-21?

that I do not know

For the general population sample, results were weighted by age, race, education, gender, and party ID. For the under-30 sample, results were weighted by race, gender, and party ID.

The majority of crosstabs are unweighted, except for the 18-29 subsample (weighted by race, gender, and party ID), and the racial crosstabs (weighted by party ID).

So the general results are weighted by education but the 18-29 subsample is not. That could have strange results depending on how they recruit their online sample.

The general rule that more educated people are more Democratic and respond at higher rates may not hold for 18-21. E.g. you could very well get higher response rates from lower educated and more Republican Americans depending on where the recruitment ads are. Just a hypothesis.

The 18-29 y/o numbers couples with the under 30 males both cannot be true; the math just doesn't work. One of both (likely the 18-29 sample) has to be small enough to be wonky

Subsamples Best to ignore them in most polls, they're only really useful if the subsamples have enough respondents in each category to be a pretty accurate poll in and of itself (ie. high hundreds +)

also this is, like, the single toughest constituency to poll, very notoriously so

Yea, I didn't even realise it was 18-21, I thought it was 18-25 Like, that's such a small group! Ofc you're going to get a random result in that!

I Think it is true that nowadays that is a R dominated demographic tho

Short form video

Open the schools. I have under 30 friends teaching this age range, and they're slowly going insane. It's probably sampling issues/lies, but also the dumbest subset of the cohort.

The kids are dumb but thankfully they don’t vote

N=?

Straight into high school, straight into a pandemic and lockdowns?

looks like the result of the 30-year democrat project to become Nothing

Acknowledging the problems others are pointing out with the numbers, these kids grew up under Trump. This is normal to them.

Their parents

I don't think that's it, no. It's more likely news influencers on YT and TikTok.

I teach this age group

I have sons this age and I work in media. Perhaps it's a little bit of a lot of things. I do agree with you about Gen Xers, although I do not think parents necessarily tell kids what to think (teachers can't do this either).

The problem is that a measurable and meaningful amount of parents actually do successfully tell their kids what to think in the bad way, but don’t tell them how to read, so AI and videos it is. This is my current situation with undergrads in American Communication Studies.

Synthetic media is a real worry. I think even people who have opinions about AI may not realize when they are presented with synthetic media. I notice this happening in my (heavily curated) YouTube feed. AI pulling together clips and autonomously posting to YouTube, appearing as a recco.

Can you elaborate on how teaching them has made feel like these tendencies are parent related?

Yes. Here is one example of many in terms of 2024 American voting demographic patterns. Note the way two very specific age groups coincide, both of whom are more conservative: www.yahoo.com/news/forget-...

I know that people laugh @ the term Xennials but I honestly wonder what the 77-85 numbers are primarily b/c most people I know my age (including myself) have gone more left. For most of us, this will be our 4th recession since 18. Yay!

Dot Com, Iraq War, GFC, Covid, and now... whatever this is.

In addition, 20 years of teaching in American colleges has shown me two things: 1) Literacy collapse is real, which would provide an underlying explanation why influencers have power. 2) Young people increasingly parrot older positions like “cancel culture”

The collapsed of curated news, the rise of news influencers. Although reductive thinking has always been the case for a large part of this cohort? The problem is that now we're all encouraged to have loud opinions about everything. Before you had to write a letter to the editor.

Not going through the absolute economic recession yet.

I expect that if this is measured by voters, anyone that age who votes is going to care a lot about the candidate. Biden and Harris were widely loathed by the young who were voting for the first time, because of Gaza and frankly being shit to the young. Simple as

Really, all Biden and Harris was trying to get a ceasefire agreement with Gaza. They said that Biden is old when Trump is old.

What's the sample size? It's probably quite small and this could just be an artifact of a large confidence interval.

“the manosphere”

Sample sizes? Only three people answer their phone in that category.

It really looks like they flipped Dem/Rep when entering the cross tabs for that bin.

Although idk now - pulling CES 2024 age distribution, the proportions do add up correctly. 18-21 is a weird bin though (only 5% of voting age pop). Probably super high variance.

And weighting the gender bins to reconstruct the “all” top line yields a different result than weighting the age bins, so idk.

This makes the most sense and why we would see it happening as a blip on other surveys as well! (MoE is simply higher plus lot more selection and other weirdness)

They could also be weighting to different covariate distributions for each of these sub-groups (explains why they don’t add to the same topline) and 18-21 is weird to weight to b/c of education + lots of unaffiliated.

It would pretty much need to be given the result they're getting from people under 30 im the question below

Though even if it was flipped, 48.9 > 46.4 and 47.3 - so there’s no way to make these two tables match.

haha great

Lots of young adult fiction

Algo is pumping them with nothing but right wing content and has been since they were 13-16

Wait this makes no sense. What are the crosstabs?

influencers

Propaganda

The very online left made the Democratic Party totally toxic to young people.

Incels and memes.

The mainstreaming of Gamergate and "anti-woke" bigotry.

That’s what got the older cohorts. It’s what got us to this moment.

Right-coded Podcaster and Youtubers are the Fox News of this generation. They spread lies saying young men are suffering because, I dunno, there's an Asian woman in Star Wars.

Joe Rogan brain rot.

docs.google.com/spreadsheets...

I mean we know Everything is Gender, but the under 30 male/female split re: Harris is wild

Yeah I noticed that too

The Asian favorability numbers are wild

Right?

Asian/Black unity under the defeated banner of Kamala lying upon us like a shroud

don't neglect much groundwork laid by the Wu-Tang Clan

I'm sorry is this white Wu-Tang reply-guy vs Asian Wu-Tang reply-guy day

Vance and Musk being almost equally hated, with Vance’s numbers only lower because more people never heard of him is delicious. Have to find our joys somewhere.

NPORS (from last year) notes a similar break bsky.app/profile/prop...

It's just proving the old adage that you get more liberal as you get older

down thread it seems like the issue might be undersampling of college students

Why are Asian Americans seemingly the most sane racial group in America?

Gen X and their atrocious young Gen Z offspring are in cahoots to destroy the world.

Eh, I’m 53, and we’re squarely Gen X.

Younger Gen Xers and Older Millennials and their young Gen Z offspring. The oldest Gen Xers are 60 years old this year. I'm 54.

Combo of COVID, first gen with unlimited access to short form media, a weird retrenchment of "boys will be boys", and testing the notion that youth = progress

The "boys will be boys" is interesting because it's not quite what's going on with Tate, etc

social media

specifically, social media polarizing them into two extremes that both hate the Democrats

Alex P Keaton III rising signs

We glorify youth way too much in our culture. The young are stupid.

I would bet a measurable chunk of 18-21 yos who would otherwise be sympathetic to Dems would say "Joe Biden did genocide" and while that may not push them R it's also keeping them from D.

i dunno, this feels more like zoomer men are affirmatively GOP than neutral

There's definitely a portion that are manosphere edgelords

They probably still live at home and vote like their parents, until they evolve their own opinions? I voted LNP a month after I turned 18 (decades ago) And never did again thereafter.

Crosstabs are still meaningless

If the trend is real (huge asterisk there) another cultural item to note is disproportionate time spent growing up in influencer/twitch/discord circles whose human moderation is, by nature of the platforms, authoritarian. An anointed few enact the whims of a head who leads by personality complex.

Fascists may resonate because they operate in ways zoomers are familiar with from every day interactions who, while likely meaning well in most cases, lack structural or social mechanisms to not be authoritarian. It's just how they do.

They’ve been mainlining manosphere and manosphere adjacent content since before puberty.

Something g really weird here there must be an error. How could 18-21 be so red but all the under 30 cross tabs are blue? Doesn’t add up.

Demographic trough in early 2000s means the 18-24 group is small and carries less weight.

The 23-29 group is still much less democratic than basically all the crosstabs for under 30 voters in the bottom part. The results are mathematically impossible

I believe the 20ish male demo has swung hard maga but there’s still something wrong with these numbers

Evidently they didn’t study dictators or the Constitution.

Fake news because both sides.

That’s ridiculous

How can Dems be -12 with the 18-21s and +6 with the 22-29s, and yet (looking at the male/female crosstabs) be +18 with all under 30s?

Pandemic

Really small sample size?

I don't think even that can explain this. For the under-30s, Dem support among men is 49 and among women 58, so the overall number should be between 49 and 58. Similarly Dem support among 18-21 is 35 and among 22-29 47, so the overall number should be between 35 and 47.

You have Simpson's paradox where, e.g., Derek Jeter had a lower batting average than David Justice in each of 1995 and 1996 but a higher batting average for the two years combined (partly b/c of weird sample sizes). But I don't think that fits this situation. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Simpson...

Oh, wow, that doesn't make any sense.

They polled a bunch of people who identified as nonbinary or refused to give their exact age and were voting dem? Just really bad data handling?

Wait no, the nonbinary folks would have to have all been voting Republican, which seems pretty sus

Because 18-21 is smaller group than 22-29?

But 22-29 is still only D+6, while the full sample must be around D+18 given the male and female crosstabs for under 30s below

This is how pyramid looks like for USA (2023, CIA WFB). So not only in 22-29 you have more years, but also in each year you have more people

Put it this way. If x% of the under-30 sample was in the 22-29 range, and (100-x)% was in the 18-21 range, then for any value of x between 0 and 100, their numbers don't work.

My guess? Low sample size.

i am a little surprised by these racial demo numbers as well

This is a really good video differentiating the difference between "Gen Z 1.0" that values social/racial/climate justice + resisting trump and "Gen Z 2.0" that values resisting institutions and democrats.

You all are reading way too much into this poll. The whole poll is 2000 ish people. The oversample is on the bottom of 2500. That's why the numbers don't jive between the 2 sets. Top one has a sub sample of 60-100 people from 18-21 you. Bottom would have a sub sample of 1000 give or take.... 1/2

I think that's the most reasonable explanation for the contradiction between the top and bottom results, assuming it's just not a misprint.

It's a weird way to report the results from their poll though. Why not just add the oversample in the general survey and weight it down?

I agree. The 2 data sets directly contradict each other. And they reported a sub sample of a sub sample.... that's dumb.

Especially weird because everywhere in the survey they only report the 18-29 numbers for the oversample.

Anyway, it's kinda funny that there are multiple people here and on Twitter conconcting elaborate social theories based on data that is plainly self-contradictory

Jake Paul, Andrew Tate, TikTok, COVID, tobacco companies (?), etc.

Everyone is on edge atm so anything that's looks bad will set them off. I only care about catalist exit surveys and polls with 3 months of an election. What they say will be my gospel.

It's just a really dumb way of showing the data. Why didn't they show the data splits by age in the bottom graph? They just want the publicity.... because only one of the two datasets can be true. Either the bottom is wrong or the top is. Given the extremely small data set for the top. It's...1/2

Much more likely that the second is closer for the whole 18-29 age group. That being said the <24 had been slightly more conservative for 2 years now... so it's somewhat real...north Carolina registrations by age confirm this as well... however this poll, is not being honest with it's narrative

For that same age group... thus if you average the male and female on the bottom chart.... it's more indicative of the <30 group.

I mean, the Millennial and Gen X numbers also don’t make any sense

Young men buying into the toxic masculinity they see on MAGA TikTok’s, etc, a trend seen across ethnic groups.

formative years interrupted by the pandemic plays into it imo. being isolated from human contact for a year or two during your early teen years is a hideously alienating thing. they're making the worst parts of the internet real

Stancil theory vindicated?

This doesn’t seem real with Gen X being net Democratic

They didn't grow up with punk music

Undercooked frontal lobes

They haven’t suffered at the hands of Republicans yet. Give it a year.

If this is a real effect it tracks “covid high school” vs “not covid high school”

Reminds me of www.jstor.org/stable/2952258

People keep trying to connect it to education loss, but past events say that's not a thing. I think it's pandemic media habits. Young people turned online like everyone else, most parents don't talk to teens abt media habits. The worst influences were at their fingertips. Real life will change that.

Large unsures

Not familiar w the poll but the two lines (Woman vs Men) pretty much explains the recent Save Act being pushed by the GOP

📌

Joe Rogan. Elon Musk. Andrew Tate. Jordan Peterson. Lies and distortion of reality.

That's exactly it. They were young children with social media algorithms to draw them into an eternal disinformation loop. MAGA Youth.

Amount of exposure to algorithmically fed social media is my guess.

Joe Rogan. Ben Shapiro. Gums. Who are their counterparts?

Lockdown fucked up their brains because they spent all their damn time on YouTube and doing interactive gaming.

Recent Canadian poll was the same. It's all gender. And age

heavy selection on who they can reach? that's not an easy demographic to poll well...

Yes, & 18-21 age group is, in my experience, more likely to lean as their parents.

I'm not familiar with YYP but at a glance this looks like it could be a sampling issue - how many 18-21s are in this survey? I know this argument was cope in 2024 but there it was applied to the much larger 18-34 age group

Algorithmic social media

TikTok plus irony poisoning.

Fear

My kid is 16. His peers at school are horrendous. This is not shocking to me.